@ejstubbs could just be "random" fluctuations. Absolute numbers of infected are low and the disease is naturally clustered.
CityCyclingEdinburgh Forum » Debate!
Do we need a coronavirus thread?
(5710 posts)-
Posted 4 years ago #
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“
Hancock keen to end 'work when ill' culture and urges people to get tested...
Covid now accounts for more than 20% of deaths in England and Wales
Posted 4 years ago # -
Hancock keen to end 'work when ill' culture
hmmm
[+] Embed the video | Video Download Get the Flash Video Posted 4 years ago # -
IKEA might be pleased Midlothian is staying in level 3.
Many people probably think it's 'in Edinburgh' and a good starting place for a 'retail walk' with ample parking.
I'm sure the police are at car park checking people arriving in off by-pass from level 4 and level 2 areas (probably not).
Posted 4 years ago # -
Even IKEA thinks it's in Edinburgh. I was there yesterday and the only policing going on is the red/green traffic light arrangement at the main entrance.
Posted 4 years ago # -
"Even IKEA thinks it's in Edinburgh. "
Same with Dobbies - very busy of late. Surely not all Midlothian peeps
Posted 4 years ago # -
Lockdown in January?
"...three households could be allowed to meet indoors over five days between 23-27 December."
Posted 4 years ago # -
fecked by february
Posted 4 years ago # -
Won't know for sure until the details are announced, but that's unlikely to be enough of a loosening to make it possible for me to see my parents at Christmas, which will at least stop me agonising about whether or not to do so.
Posted 4 years ago # -
Midlothian's population is under 100,000 so it doesn't take a large increase in numbers for their per 100,000 numbers to spike.
Posted 4 years ago # -
The Public Health Scotland dashboard shows the population of Midlothian as 92,460, spread over 22 neighbourhoods. Less than half of the neighbourhoods have 5 or more cases in the latest week, with 10 being the highest.
Most neighbourhoods are shown as having 1-4, the actual number not shown "to help protect patient confidentiality" ... unless you can do sums. For example Bilston and Roslin have a rate of between 30-49 per hundred thousand, so the "1-4 cases" out of a population of 3,333 will actually be between 0.999 and 1.633.Posted 4 years ago # -
Hard decisions for families this Christmas
Posted 4 years ago # -
Government are basically admitting that DILLIGAFs will ignore the restrictions and do what they like at Chrimbo, so may as well sanction the behaviour and make it official, to placate the hard of thinking. This will end up being like a repeat of the Eat Out To Help Out scheme. Also, the most prevalent strains of the virus in the UK during second wave is from Spain, doubtless spread by all the folk jetting off to the sun thinking it was all over because lockdown ended...
Posted 4 years ago # -
may as well sanction the behaviour and make it official, to placate the hard of thinking
not so much a desire to placate, more a desperate need to be seen to retain control
Posted 4 years ago # -
I think that by allowing it, they hope they will be able to maintain control of the situation in the New Year. If it looks like they have completely lost it, they might never regain their authority.
Posted 4 years ago # -
"The virus doesn't know it's Christmas," she says. "It's just a virus and it thrives on human contact."
Posted 4 years ago # -
Prof Andrew Hayward, director of the UCL Institute of Epidemiology and Health Care, and a member of the government's Sage committee, told BBC Newsnight that allowing families to meet up over Christmas amounted to "throwing fuel on the Covid fire". He said it would "definitely lead to increase[d] transmission and likely lead to third wave of infections with hospitals being overrun, and more unnecessary deaths."
Posted 4 years ago # -
Also
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/25/uk-scientists-warn-third-wave-covid-after-christmas
Posted 4 years ago # -
Also, rather grimly:
---
Members of the Covid-19 Bereaved Families for Justice group told the Guardian that large family gatherings were too high-risk, with one grieving husband saying anyone prepared to mix family groups should also “prepare for a funeral”.
Posted 4 years ago # -
“
If you are not in a high-risk group it is not entirely crazy to meet a few people in the safest way possible, suggests Lucy Yardley, a professor of health psychology at the University of Bristol. “But what really isn’t going to work is the traditional Christmas done in the traditional way.”
So think flexibly. Consider mince pies and presents in the garden, chestnuts roasting on an outdoor fire, a bracing walk with a picnic
“
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/25/smarter-ways-tips-navigate-christmas-coronavirus-uk
Posted 4 years ago # -
“
“Policy wonks like me often complain that government doesn’t do enough rigorous randomised trials of policy interventions,” said Jonathan Portes, a professor of economics at King’s College London. “This paper argues that a spreadsheet error in the contact-tracing system is the next best thing.
“
Posted 4 years ago # -
@crowriver & chdot: I suspect the thinking has been along the lines suggested by a poster on another forum I read:
...millions of people are going to do it anyway regardless of what the government say so they may as well allow it rather than criminalise them all.*
Another poster responded:Legality or otherwise makes a big difference to what people choose to do, and this ... 3 household thing is pretty much unenforceable, as is social distancing within homes.
Other posters suggested that the governments have tried to pitch what's going to be allowed so as to keep a manageable lid both on what people get up to and on the almost inevitable result. Personally, I remain unconvinced.Personally, I'm not sure that legality or otherwise does make a 'big" difference, if IKEA and Dobbies are continuing to receive footfall far in excess of what could be accounted for by Midlothian residents alone, as reported upthread.
* By that argument we might as well do away with speed limits, since millions of people break those every day.
Posted 4 years ago # -
Stephen reicher at St Andrews is good on this, he reckons 80 per cent of people will do what you tell them
Maybe they don’t at Xmas?
Xmas seems to mean a lot to some,people
Don’t get me wrong there are aspects of Xmas I like but the misanthrope within me has always reacted poorly to the idea that we should all be jolly at Xmas. Rather we should be mindful of our luck and other people’s lack of luck, every day.
Maybe I should become a Jehovah’s Witness?.
Posted 4 years ago # -
high time there was a christmas backlash, the blackmail is insufferable any year, but this time its serious
big business taking full advantage of humans innate propensity to seasonally accomodate shamanic magical thinking
santa's outfit and rudolf's nose, its all aminita muscaria
psychedelics are for life, not just for xmas
Posted 4 years ago # -
Xmas seems to mean a lot to some,people
Only on the radio this morning they were talking about some people having to choose between "heating their home" and "gifts for Xmas"!
It shows how brainwashed people have become by corporations and marketeers that they "must" buy multiple (often unwanted) gifts for all of their extended family and so on...
And that "must" is as fundemental as being warm.
Posted 4 years ago # -
On Midlothian's population-
didn't realise it was so small. You're talking about 80 total cases a week.
if you just simulate some poisson distributed data with a mean of 80 (decent enough distribution for this sort of thing):
With no changes in viral prevalence the average change in cases from one week to the next would be 12.5%.
In reality, because tests aren't independent and test and trace will hit clusters of cases of different sizes, the variance will be even higher than that. Nightmare to try and model at such a small scale.
Posted 4 years ago # -
“
London and Liverpool will be placed in Tier 2 when national lockdown ends next week, it’s been announced. Birmingham and Manchester will be in Tier 3.“
Posted 4 years ago # -
“Maybe I should become a Jehovah’s Witness?.“
Personal choice.
(Are you sure they’d have you?)
Posted 4 years ago #
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