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Do we need a coronavirus thread?

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  1. Stickman
    Member

    “ vaccine doesn't prevent transmission”

    The vaccine reduces transmission, even with Omicron.

    Posted 2 years ago #
  2. SRD
    Moderator

    also helpful in travel. my kids haven't seen their only surviving grandmother (who is over 80) in two years, and she's been on her own.

    in canada under 11s have been vaccinated for months. and very high levels of takeup, despite the blockades. especially in my home province.

    Posted 2 years ago #
  3. Baldcyclist
    Member

    "The vaccine reduces transmission, even with Omicron."

    You'd hope so, but given every other person I know at work and home has had it in the last six weeks, it's not doing so very well at that...

    It's ripping through fully vaccinated households.

    Posted 2 years ago #
  4. Baldcyclist
    Member

    Travel a fair reason if you need to do so.

    Posted 2 years ago #
  5. Morningsider
    Member

    Research showing that boosters reduce transmission:

    https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2788105?widget=personalizedcontent&previousarticle=2788487

    Posted 2 years ago #
  6. Baldcyclist
    Member

    I"m sure the research is grand, but I can't be the only person watching almost *all* of your boosted family catching it. I'm one of two of 13 in my extended family who hasn't yet caught it.

    Also, form the paper: "median overall follow-up was 39 days", maybe they should go back and ask again, we were all still feeling invincible after 39 days...

    Posted 2 years ago #
  7. crowriver
    Member

    Anecdotally, the virus seems to be affecting families with young children more than families with teenage kids, who presumably are mostly vaccinated.

    AFAIK we've not had it, but friends and relatives with kids at nursery or primary school have nearly all had it in recent months.

    Posted 2 years ago #
  8. Morningsider
    Member

    The research was based on a cohort of almost 2000 healthcare workers. The relatively short follow-up period is because policy makers really needed to know the effectiveness of boosters. I don't think anyone is arguing that omicron isn't very transmissible, but that doesn't mean that boosters don't help limit transmission.

    Posted 2 years ago #
  9. Baldcyclist
    Member

    My wife is a healthcare worker, and has to do extra shifts every week because the boosted staff are dropping like flies from Omicron. Cases being cancelled left and right because of it. NHS is in turmoil because of Covid.

    Of course the vaccines are having some effect on transmission (I didn't get it, can only be because of vaccine), and of course a much larger effect on limiting serious illness. But the sheer numbers of infected every day with such a high proporion of the population vaxxed or boosted (only 3M not vaxxed, and 2M a week with Covid according to ONS) suggsets the vaccine has limited ability to stop transmission.

    Really only the laptop class that have managed to avoid getting it to such a high extent, and even they are starting to succumb now as cases in my work seem to suggest (2 in my team in last week, neither have children and both boosted).

    Posted 2 years ago #
  10. neddie
    Member

    It seems the BBC One News have stopped bothering to report the Covid stats. Perhaps now the government have declared the pandemic over, and the BBC no longer report the figures, we can all just forget it exists?

    I mean no one notices the 5 people who die each day on the roads, so who would notice the "residual" 300 people dying a day of Covid if it isn't reported?

    Posted 2 years ago #
  11. chdot
    Admin

    Chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance warns the pandemic is not over and “the virus has got a lot of room to evolve”. It will continue to do so at a fast pace “probably for the next couple of years”, he says.

    And there is no guarantee that the next variant will be of the same reduced severity as Omicron.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/feb/21/uk-covid-live-boris-johnson-to-lift-all-remaining-restrictions-in-england?page=with:block-6213e7a18f08b28bb37dbab1#block-6213e7a18f08b28bb37dbab1

    Posted 2 years ago #
  12. ejstubbs
    Member

    Covid Scotland: More people in hospital with Covid than at peak of Omicron wave

    Some 1,636 people were in hospital on Wednesday with recently-confirmed Covid-19, an increase of 127 on the day before.

    This is higher than the peak of the Omicron wave (1,571) recorded on January 19, and is the highest figure recorded since February last year.

    The daily number of deaths recorded within 28 days of a positive Covid test has doubled from Wednesday, now standing at 41.

    It is also now equal to the highest point in the Omicron wave, recorded on January 14.

    Health secretary Humza Yousaf said on Wednesday that rising Covid-19 infections were “concerning”.

    He tweeted: "Recently rising Covid-19 case numbers are concerning and a reminder that Covid is still with us. With a rise in cases we have also seen a steady rise in Covid hospital occupancy. Over the last week there has been a 23 per cent rise (1,509 ppl with Covid in our hospitals).

    "Rising numbers in our hospitals and community (which contributes to Covid-related staff absences) all impact our NHS recovery.

    ...

    “Important we do not let our guard down & we continue to abide by remaining guidance & regulations that help to keep us safe....”

    Anecdotally, and with nothing more concrete in terms of evidence, I couldn't fail to notice many more people not wearing face coverings on the bus when I went in to town the other day.

    The seven day positive case rates reported on the PHS dashboard are at levels which, earlier in the pandemic (pre-vaccination), would have had me hiding under the bedclothes.

    Posted 2 years ago #
  13. ejstubbs
    Member

    Covid infections rising again across UK - ONS

    The ONS infection survey, which tests thousands of people randomly in households across the UK, estimates that 2.6 million people would have tested positive in the week ending 5 March - up from 2.4 million the previous week - roughly one in 27.

    There were also rises across the four UK nations:
    in Northern Ireland, up from 5.8% testing positive to 7.8% (one in 13 people)
    in Scotland, up from 5.3% testing positive to 5.7% (one in 18)
    in England, up from 3.6% testing positive last week to 3.8% (one in 25)
    in Wales, up from 3.1% testing positive to 3.2% (one in 30 people)

    ...some scientists believe the BA.2 variant's increased transmissibility, recent easing of restrictions and waning immunity from the vaccines could all be factors.

    Asked if there were worries about sub-variants Health Secretary Sajid Javid said the government had "no concerns at all".

    He said Omicron had been the last variant to be considered of concern but that the country had "successfully navigated" it, but he said the government continued to monitor the situation "very carefully".

    "There's a world-class surveillance system in place, and whilst in some regions we have seen a modest rise in infections, overall case numbers are still very low and hospitalisation numbers are way below their peak," he said.

    I get the impression that he's looking at a different set of numbers to me.

    Posted 2 years ago #
  14. CocoShepherd
    Member

    Covid is ripping through our village and local primary school (and nursery) like the proverbial wildfire. Seems inescapable and inevitable at the moment.

    Posted 2 years ago #
  15. amir
    Member

    Lots of people without masks properly on on the train I'm on. Many with masks around necks. Pretty selfish

    Posted 2 years ago #
  16. chdot
    Admin

  17. chdot
    Admin

  18. pringlis
    Member

    Email from my youngest's nursery yesterday telling us that over the weekend five people from her class had tested positive, some of them for the second time, and to please do a lateral flow. Thankfully she was negative, but five testing positive in two days is a new record... we're definitely not out of the woods!

    Posted 2 years ago #
  19. steveo
    Member

    we're definitely not out of the woods!

    Probably depends how you define woods. If the virus is now having a low to no effect on the infected then does it matter how many people are testing positive.

    The virus is not going away. I've not looked at the hospitalisation rates so I don't know if its still crippling the NHS but frankly at this stage thats all that matters. Its rampant in the population so its now when not if individuals will contract it and if its not having a massively adverse effect on the provision of heath services then there is nothing else to do.

    2 of my kids finally caught it last week, only reason we tested was because the boy required a clear test for an event. No symptoms to speak off. Child C, me and Mrs S tested negative. Mrs S had it near the start of the pandemic none of us caught it from her (that we could tell)

    Posted 2 years ago #
  20. ejstubbs
    Member

    I posted this three days ago: Covid Scotland: More people in hospital with Covid than at peak of Omicron wave

    Latest data from the PHS dashboard:

    Hospital Admissions

    ICU Admissions

    Deaths

    In terms of hospital admissions and deaths, we're not yet back down the levels that were seen before last Autumn's 'wave', although ICU admissions look to be behaving more encouragingly.

    In my post two days ago Sajid Javid was quoted by the Beeb banging on about the UK's 'great surveillance system' as part of the reason why he wasn't worried. The surveillance system which, according to chdot's first post today, is now to be scrapped - and Sajid Javid now says we need to "brace for rising Covid cases".

    I guess we can only wait and see if anything happens between now and next Monday to change ScoGov's stance about relaxation of the remaining rules about face coverings etc. (Reference: Covid in Scotland: How will the rules change? for anyone who wasn't previously aware of the plan - which I wasn't until someone mentioned it to me on Saturday.)

    Posted 2 years ago #
  21. steveo
    Member

    Ah, that is not good.

    Do we know if these are vaccinated

    /clutches at straws...

    Posted 2 years ago #
  22. ejstubbs
    Member

    No idea I'm afraid. I don't think you can derive that information from the data on the PHS dashboard. Maybe it's somewhere in the ONS data?

    It does seem likely that a meaningful proportion of the hospitalisation cases are more likely to be members of the unvaxed and/or have pre-existing conditions but I have no data to back that up.

    Posted 2 years ago #
  23. Roibeard
    Member

    [Anecdata] Mother-in-law was "boosted" before Decemeber, tested positive for COVID-19 at Christmas, then again two months later. The second bout had more significant symptoms.[/Anecdata]

    The ZOE study stopped breaking down vaccinated vs unvaccinated hospitalisations due to the high levels of vaccination. Whilst being vaccinated remains effective at reducing the individual risk of hospitalisation, the high levels of infection mean high hospitalisations at a population level. If it's any consolation, I seem to recall hospitalisations being 2-3 times higher in unvaccinated individuals...

    Robert

    Posted 2 years ago #
  24. Baldcyclist
    Member

    "We're seeing more older population becoming impacted on this occasion, and that's leading to some longer lengths of stay, which is driving occupancy up as well,"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-60736563

    Posted 2 years ago #
  25. chdot
    Admin

    Scotland's record rates of Covid are being driven by a new variant of Omicron, the chief medical officer has said.

    Professor Sir Gregor Smith said about 85% of cases in Scotland were thought to be the BA.2 variant.

    The World Health Organisation has said BA.2 is more transmissible than the original BA.1 Omicron strain, which emerged in Scotland in December.
    However there is no evidence to suggest it is any more severe.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-60736563.amp

    Posted 2 years ago #
  26. LaidBack
    Member

    Face mask requirements to remain in Scotland on public transport till 4th April.

    Opposition suggesting that ScotGov's 'mishandling' of pandemic is making things worse. Unlike happy go lucky England where everything is just fine. Does Bowie actually think face masks are adding to case numbers?!

    @AndrewBowie_MP
    Masks to remain in Scotland where covid cases are higher than in England where masks haven't been mandatory for over a month.

    No...I don't get it either

    Posted 2 years ago #
  27. chdot
    Admin

  28. Baldcyclist
    Member

    @Laidback no he's simply suggesting they make no difference.

    Probably don't when it comes to new Omicron variant - which just happens to be in Scotland first. Widely accepted cases in England and Wales about to rocket too when new variant takes off there. (I'll keep my mask on whether it makes a difference of not)

    Posted 2 years ago #
  29. Baldcyclist
    Member

    "Now for the first time during the pandemic, you are less likely to die of Covid when you get it, compared to getting the flu,"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-60762572

    Posted 2 years ago #
  30. wingpig
    Member

    I had to try and explain several flu-comparison misapprehensions to a back-to-the-office-obsessed person this morning, who has read similar headlines without bothering to find the original source. Distinctions and context like "at a population level, with its current relatively recently-boosted vaccination status" are unfortunately lost on them. Likewise seems unwilling to recognise that Covid is a lot more spreadable even amongst a vaccinated population and quite capable of killing thousands a week even outside the traditional flu season

    Posted 2 years ago #

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