NEVER in our lives will such an opportunity exist to change the face of civil society here in Scotland
STOP. LOOK. LISTEN.
CityCyclingEdinburgh Forum » Debate!
Do we need a coronavirus thread?
(5710 posts)-
Posted 4 years ago #
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The margins for the organisation’s predictions of daily deaths in the UK are big – a tenfold variation from 800 to 8,000 near the peak which, it predicts, will happen around 17 April.
“
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/07/how-can-coronavirus-models-get-it-so-wrong
Posted 4 years ago # -
“NEVER in our lives will such an opportunity exist to change the face of civil society”
Here, there and everywhere.
Not much sign of anything beyond ‘it should never happen again’ and ‘let’s get the economy back on track’.
The unknown unknowns get more numerous by the day.
Posted 4 years ago # -
“
As nations overcome the health crisis, societies will return to work, although countries will do so in different stages. In general, a strong snapback is expected in the second half of 2020.
But those baseline assumptions are questionable. Views differ on whether the recovery will be ‘V’-, ‘U’- or ‘L’-shaped. Various scenarios are feasible.
“
https://www.omfif.org/2020/04/search-for-post-pandemic-vision/
Posted 4 years ago # -
The Eight Testaments of Propaganda
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1d3hOvrZg4UcH4KFZfE49_qShcW1gyzsM/view?usp=sharing
Posted 4 years ago # -
One box for optimism
Forget the world, take this break
And danceThe drums are stained with blood
Don't look at this disaster
If you want my advice, take this break
And dancePosted 4 years ago # -
ich fuerchte keine einsamkeit
es gibt keine warmherzigkeittake this break and dance
Posted 4 years ago # -
The daily death toll in England from coronavirus was almost 80 per cent higher than the hospital figures reported during the accelerating phase of its spread across the country.
Even these figures, running up to March 27 and verified by the Office for National Statistics, are an underestimate as they do not capture the total number of those who died with Covid-19 symptoms outside hospitals.
The latest ONS data showed 11,141 people died from all causes in England and Wales in the week to March 27, compared with the five-year average for that week of 10,130.
With 10 per cent more deaths registered in that week than normal, only one week in 2019 had a higher level of excess deaths, although there were many weeks with worse figures in the period of 2017-18 seasonal winter flu.
Posted 4 years ago # -
Could that be accounted for by higher population density in England?
Posted 4 years ago # -
Singapore has announced new plans to boost food production, including by turning car park rooftops into urban farms
That's a thought that might give the British nationalists something to think about.
Posted 4 years ago # -
"Medical professionals have written to the Scottish government to express "grave concerns" about the protective equipment they have been given."
Posted 4 years ago # -
“
The medics said that much remains unknown about the new virus, including whether there is airborne spread.
“
Really?
Posted 4 years ago # -
Airborne and droplet spread aren't quite the same thing - that may be the distinction being made here.
Posted 4 years ago # -
My pal who is a professor in China assures me that wet droplet spread is the main route for this horror.
Posted 4 years ago # -
I don’t doubt anyone’s expertise but it seems strange that it seems to be so infectious. Maybe I am unusual but with the amount of hand washing/sanitizing I have been doing it would seem the only way to catch it is to be sneezed over, which thankfully doesn’t seem to happen all that often. There must be a lot of poor hygiene out there.
Posted 4 years ago # -
Probably a combination of factors, you don't need to be coughed/sneezed on but merely touch a surface that someone who has coughed into their hand and touched.
I don't really think it is particularly infectious compared with the some flu strains or the various viruses which cause the common cold I think its just we have no natural resistance to Covid-19 because it has mutated from an animal strain.
As I understand it Novel viruses are the ones which worry virologists most.
/armchair virologist.
Posted 4 years ago # -
“Airborne and droplet spread aren't quite the same thing - that may be the distinction being made here.“
Yes and probably.
“it would seem the only way to catch it is to be sneezed over”
Except that sneezing isn’t a primary symptom.
I assume (I’m not a scientist/doctor blah blah) that it’s ‘mostly’ one/both of these -
Transfer to and from surfaces - the myriad of everyday things in public to be touched plus things like post and groceries.
Airborne - ‘lumps’ that won’t travel far (the main reason for the 2 metres) but also aerosol (related to above but, apart from ‘evidence’ that sneezes can travel for more than 2 metres, not much talked about).
All of which account for the tragic deaths of medical/caring staff and calls for stay at home/don’t use PT.
“but it seems strange that it seems to be so infectious”
Quite.
Still so many unknowns.
It’s a hard job projecting policies and public health messages, but seems harder to admit ‘we don’t really know enough’ and ‘maybe other countries are doing things better - by strategy or accident’.
Posted 4 years ago # -
I think the Ro of this thing was three point something in China pre-lockdwn? The 1918 influenza had an Ro of about 2.5?
So it's not wildly infectious. Mr Google tells me that measles has an Ro between 12 and 18.
Posted 4 years ago # -
Scottish statistics published:
https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/files//statistics/covid19/covid-deaths-report-week-14.pdf
The provisional total number of deaths registered in Scotland in week 14 of 2020 (30 March – 5 April) was 1,741. This is an increase of 662 from the number registered in the previous week.1
The average number of deaths registered in the corresponding week over the previous five years was 1,098. This means that the overall number of deaths in week 14 of 2020 (30 March – 5 April) was much higher than in previous years.Posted 4 years ago # -
That's the grim number we all need to focus on as we decide how to behave.
Everyone needs to feel its reality viscerally.
Posted 4 years ago # -
Private Eye's MD column said the thing we really need to worry about is Ebeasles: a disease with the impact of Ebola and the infectivity of measles.
In comparison this one is quite benign...
Posted 4 years ago # -
"this one is quite benign..."
Until you get infected, then it's not.
Posted 4 years ago # -
Until you get infected, then it's not.
Thats statistics for you, Cycling is quite safe, until you're hit by a truck!
Posted 4 years ago # -
It's believed that the Americans and the Russians have created a few chimera pathogens out of things like Ebola and Smallpox which they hold in various secure places **just in case someone else releases it so they have something to use for creating a vaccine**. That would NOT be fun.
Posted 4 years ago # -
Craig Dalzell is always good value. Physical scientist writing fact-based campaigning journalism.
Posted 4 years ago # -
"this one is quite benign..."
Until you get infected, then it's not.
Worth remembering that this is a vast public health emergency AND it is still the case that the majority of people who get it will recover. I think it's psychologically difficult to assimilate these facts at the same time - can get interpreted as being the same as implying the mortality rate isn't very serious.
(Agreed a highly transmissible SARS with a 20-40% mortality rate would be... VERY bad. But at the same time, don't things like ebola outbreaks tend to burn out in part because they're so deadly? Though ebola etc are actually quite hard to spread - bodily fluids etc.)
Posted 4 years ago # -
it is still the case that the majority of people who get it will recover.
Based on a number of reports, the majority of people who get it won't even know they've had it as they will be asymptomatic.
We don't know anywhere near enough about Covid-19, which is why we should be testing testing testing.
Posted 4 years ago # -
From IWRATS link
“
I cannot emphasise enough how quickly and how strongly we have to act. This is an exponential problem. It cannot be tackled by ramping up responses in a linear fashion. Whatever the death rate is today will have doubled in 2.5 days and will have increased by a factor of 7 by this time next week. And again the week after.
“
https://sourcenews.scot/testing-testing-1-2/
I get the maths, but surely that’s based on distancing and isolating not working(?)
But he makes sound arguments about (much) more testing.
It’s as though the ‘not necessary’/“distraction” line is just to cover lack of capacity(?)
Posted 4 years ago #
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