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Do we need a coronavirus thread?

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  1. LaidBack
    Member

    Sourcenews is good but worrying...

    All governments have already thought a great deal about how they present and explain the figures. The 'optics' are everything - we all really want to feel they know what they are doing.

    If the Common Weal article is correct then this will be called the 'post Easter peak'. It will be explained by factors outside the control of UKGov (and ScotGov).

    The good weather, an unruly population, isolation fatigue etc...

    On testing... I was told by 'a source' that their massive facility had been offered to ScotGov weeks ago. Testing is what they do...

    Posted 4 years ago #

  2. I were right about that saddle
    Member

    @chdot

    I think Mr Dalzell's point is that only aggressive hunting and isolation of infected people keeps the peak of ill-health in any way manageable.

    The testing and contact tracing allows a hard lock-down round the danger once identified.

    Posted 4 years ago #

  3. steveo
    Member

    One thing I'd like to see (without sounding goulish) is what the death rate for an average week would be alongside the daily/weekly update. Its easy to scare people when you quote a large number and attribute it to one thing, I would appreciate a bit of perspective though I will admit I'm a data guy and I am possibly (almost certainly) in the minority.

    Posted 4 years ago #

  4. fimm
    Member

    @steveo here:
    https://twitter.com/ActuaryByDay/status/1247445441924513799

    Posted 4 years ago #

  5. steveo
    Member

    Thanks fimm.

    Interesting the week of the 27th was the first to be above "Normal" .

    Posted 4 years ago #

  6. chdot
    Admin

    “the first to be above "Normal" .”

    NS said a great deal today about the (changing) accuracy of figures - partly due to delays in reporting the actual date of death (plus a few other things) - so day to day figures not reliable for working out trends accurately.

    She seemed to be suggesting that they were only now adding in ‘suspected’ and ‘contributing’ causes of death.

    Posted 4 years ago #

  7. Murun Buchstansangur
    Member

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/08/vetinary-scientist-hailed-faroe-islands-lack-covid-19-deaths

    Posted 4 years ago #

  8. chdot
    Admin

    From link

    “

    The success of the Faroese approach is said by local politicians to be largely a result of the foresight of the veterinary scientist Debes Christiansen, the head of department at the National Reference Laboratory for Fish and Animal Diseases in the capital, Tórshavn.

    Christiansen had warned the government of the self-governing territory within the Kingdom of Denmark as early as January of the need to prepare for the possible spread of the disease from China.

    “

    Posted 4 years ago #

  9. chdot
    Admin

    https://www.theguardian.com/news/2020/apr/08/bafta-winning-film-maker-becomes-hospital-cleaner-hassan-akkad-hassan-akkad-who-moved-to-london-from-syria-in-2015-says-he-wants-help-nhs-staff-fighting-coronavirus

    Posted 4 years ago #

  10. crowriver
    Member

    Coronavirus in Scotland: Who is dying and where?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-52214177

    Posted 4 years ago #

  11. Murun Buchstansangur
    Member

    From link above, bottom chart; little shift in ICU cases since 4th April. Seems reasonable to infer we are at the 1-in/1-out stage in Scottish ICUs. Worrying with perhaps 10+ days to go to a possible case peak.

    Posted 4 years ago #

  12. crowriver
    Member

    Total number of deaths in UK hospitals from coronavirus rises to 7,097 - a record increase of 938 in a day

    Also: don't expect lockdown to end soon.

    Don't expect too much from lockdown review

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-52216705

    Covid-19 detecting apps face teething problems

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-52215290

    Posted 4 years ago #

  13. crowriver
    Member

    THIS is why we wear masks when shopping!

    How far can the coronavirus spread?

    New computer models have simulated how people coughing can spread coronavirus in confined spaces like supermarket aisles. A consortium of Finnish research institutions has developed detailed animations showing how tiny droplets can drift and linger in the air. The research shows that a cough can produce particles which remain airborne for several minutes.

    The scientists involved say their work has not yet been scrutinised by other experts but does highlight the risks of spending time in busy places. Assistant Professor Ville Vuorinen of Aalto University in Helsinki had this advice for people thinking of visiting supermarkets: “First of all, don’t go there if you don’t need to go there. If you need to go there, only go as seldom as possible. And number three: stay there as short a time as possible.”

    The research may reinforce the view among many governments - from the US to Indonesia - that the public should wear face masks to minimise the risks of transmission.

    ----

    Posted 4 years ago #

  14. Baldcyclist
    Member

    Don't worry @Crowriver, it'll only be another fortnight to three weeks until UK/Scot govts start telling their citizens to wear them..

    Posted 4 years ago #

  15. crowriver
    Member

    @Baldcyclist, I was worried about this thing back in January. International students were returning from China and I began to wonder about virus transmission. Universities closed as soon as they saw the risks were great, around the time of the first death in Scotland. Our family social distanced before the government were forced to act to close schools, etc. We've been wearing masks and gloves in the shops since before lockdown - would have done it sooner if they'd arrived earlier...

    Posted 4 years ago #

  16. chdot
    Admin

    “If you need to go there, only go as seldom as possible. And number three: stay there as short a time as possible.”

    Yes, well, but.

    So, it raises the question (without considering any answers) - is it caught, randomly by being in the ‘right’ place at the ‘wrong’ time (go more often and increase the chance) OR, possibly, that multiple exposures build up?

    Posted 4 years ago #

  17. crowriver
    Member

    "multiple exposures build up?"

    I've read stuff about "viral load" being key to how severe COVID-19 is. Hence why PPE is vital for medical staff.

    Had a link for it sometime a fortnight ago.....probably you can just search it up.

    Posted 4 years ago #

  18. chdot
    Admin

    “I've read stuff about "viral load" being key to how severe COVID-19 is.”

    Yes.

    I suppose it’s too early to have precise answers about mechanisms and quantities.

    Would be nice to think that WHO is working with Govs, academia, industries and NGOs to get the answers (fast).

    Posted 4 years ago #

  19. Murun Buchstansangur
    Member

    Viral load seems to be used in at least 2 ways in the media

    My understanding is that medics believe that higher viral loads with patients' systems (as measured by number of PCR amplifications required for a detectable positive or other methods) is correlated with worse outcomes. That seems uncontroversial.

    The other narrative that seems to be building up is that if you have contact with multiple infected people/fomites (through driving a London bus or whatever), you end up with a worse infection. That, I think, is very much still to be proven.

    Posted 4 years ago #

  20. Baldcyclist
    Member

    Apparently EU not getting their ventilators yet either...

    https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1247980158255915008?s=19

    Posted 4 years ago #

  21. chdot
    Admin

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/18367954.concerns-raised-uk-missed-eight-coronavirus-meetings-eu-officials/

    Posted 4 years ago #

  22. chdot
    Admin

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/08/lockdowns-cant-end-until-covid-19-vaccine-found-study-says

    Posted 4 years ago #

  23. chdot
    Admin

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/08/national-defence-corona-pandemic-fighter-jets

    Posted 4 years ago #

  24. Baldcyclist
    Member

    "it's no time to buy fighter jets"

    True,but 'defence' still needs to happen, and existing jets still need to be maintained etc.

    Even in a pandemic RAF typhoons are being scrambled at a rate of twice a week to chase away russian bomber's. War games still going on...

    Posted 4 years ago #

  25. I were right about that saddle
    Member

    The British have stopped defending Yemen under their contract with Saudi Arabia.

    Posted 4 years ago #

  26. I were right about that saddle
    Member

    Land access guidance.

    https://www.gov.scot/publications/ministerial-statement-on-access-rights-during-covid-19/

    Posted 4 years ago #

  27. chdot
    Admin

    That’s a good balance of rights and responsibilities (all round) plus reinforces the idea that the current access/restriction issues are ‘temporary’.

    Posted 4 years ago #

  28. chdot
    Admin

    Sadly, this is easy to believe -

    “

    “They were very slow. They didn’t understand the scale of this,” says one senior figure, who has witnessed the government’s response close up. He says those at the top were “blase”, that emergency Cobra meetings were nothing like the efficient coordination exercises that have followed terror attacks, but “chaotic”, lacking “decisiveness”.

    “

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/08/coronavirus-crisis-has-transformed-our-view-of-whats-important

    Posted 4 years ago #

  29. Stickman
    Member

    A presentation explaining epidemic modelling from a mathematician at Oxford University. Highly informative and accessible. Gives excellent context to interventions to reduce spread. No maths required.

    https://youtu.be/m6Hr69JH_wA

    Posted 4 years ago #

  30. fimm
    Member

    chdot agreed re statement on access rights.

    Posted 4 years ago #

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