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CityCyclingEdinburgh Forum » Debate!
Do we need a coronavirus thread?
(5710 posts)-
Posted 4 years ago #
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https://twitter.com/iandonald_psych/status/1238518371651649538
Interesting thread around the assumptions that this chap is making about how the "plan" is going to work.
Posted 4 years ago # -
Point 15 is the best one!
https://twitter.com/iandonald_psych/status/1238518395634679808
Posted 4 years ago # -
“
“I don’t take responsibility at all,” he said, “because we were given a set of circumstances and we were given rules, regulations and specifications from a different time.”
He added: “What we’ve done is redesign it very quickly with the help of the people around me … We’ll have the ability to do millions over a quick period of time.”
Trump also announced that he would waive interest on all student loans held by government agencies until further notice and was buying big quantities of crude oil for storage in the US strategic reserve.
“It’s a good time to fill it up,” he said.
“
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/13/donald-trump-coronavirus-national-emergency
Posted 4 years ago # -
@paddyirish re "fears" I had this from an American friend earlier...
"Convo w/coworker yesterday quickly devolved to hoping a certain kind of politician has secret handshakes that include rubbing their hands over each other's faces"
Meanwhile my anxiety has swung back to fatalism (but not of the sort that thinks we shouldn't act. I'm terrible at fatalism.)
Currently trying to arrange a local support network so we can make sure self-isolating neighbours can get groceries, medication, etc. without stress.
Posted 4 years ago # -
Quandary, boy has a very mild cold for a couple of days, bit of a cough, worse at night, particularly bad last night, runny nose etc - we actually think I may have inflicted him with my asthma as it appears from time to time.
He's been at school given advice only changes yesterday, teacher not had concerns.
But given new advice should we keep him away from the birthday party he's supposed to be going to this morning?
Know the illness is mild in children but this seems to just be a cold...
Posted 4 years ago # -
There has been lots of tears...
Posted 4 years ago # -
Ouch, one of the worst things is the doubt all this brings in to every day decisions. No right or wrong answer.
Given your own concerns upthread, I'd say pull the party and offer ice cream/sweets/cake/chocolate or whatever as a consolation prize...
Posted 4 years ago # -
Tricky - but to avoid getting the evils from the more paranoid parents (and there are always a few) of kids going to the party, I would go with paddyirish's suggestion.
Posted 4 years ago # -
There were tears, not so much at the party, more that he can't play with friends till Weds (his first symptoms were Thurs). He wasn't so fussed about not going to school surprisingly.
We went round and handed in his present at which point the two boys hugged. His mum and me shrugged, oh well what's the point.
As per @paddyirish's suggestion there has been early chocolate.
Posted 4 years ago # -
@chdot: Couple of things jumped out at me from that:
1. "Data on infection rates needs to be accurate" (from point 7). AIUI we're no longer supposed to call 111 if we get ill, and there's no further contact tracing being carried out. So how will they know what infection rates are i.e. how will they get the accurate data that's supposedly required? One argument seems to be that they can extrapolate back from hospitalisation rates to date, but that seems rather to assume (that word again) that sufficient data had been collected up to Thursday for such an extrapolation to be valid in the future (it also seems that testing will not now be carried out for some folks who reported themselves possibly infected prior to Thursday.)
2. "The aim of the UK is to have as many lower risk people infected as possible. Immune people cannot infect others," (from point 4), "All the time people are being treated, other mildly ill people are recovering and the population grows a higher percent of immune people who can’t infect, " (from point 6) and: "After a while most of the population is immune" (from point 10). AFAIK it's not yet been confirmed that being infected and recovering does confer immunity, or what kind of immunity, in which case that's another fairly key assumption which, if found to be unreliable, would also seem to undermine the strategy.
Note also this from The Guardian today:
The WHO spokeswoman, Margaret Harris, has cast doubt on the UK’s decision to take a herd immunity response to the coronavirus outbreak. Harris told BBC Radio 4’s Today: “We don’t know enough about the science of this virus, it hasn’t been in our population for long enough for us to know what it does in immunological terms”. She warned that each virus functioned differently, implying it was difficult to tell if the herd immunity approach would be effective in this case.
Other edifying articles from the same source:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/13/herd-immunity-will-the-uks-coronavirus-strategy-work
Anthony Costello, a paediatrician and former World Health Organization director, said that the UK government was out of kilter with other countries in looking to herd immunity as the answer. It could conflict with WHO policy, he said in a series of Twitter posts, which is to contain the virus by tracking and tracing all cases. He quoted Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the WHO director general, who said: “The idea that countries should shift from containment to mitigation is wrong and dangerous."
Herd immunity might not even last, Costello said. “Does coronavirus cause strong herd immunity or is it like flu where new strains emerge each year needing repeat vaccines? We have much to learn about Co-V immune responses.”
Countries should find and test every case of coronavirus to stop the pandemic, the World Health Organization has said a day after the UK announced that only the most seriously ill will be tested.
“You can’t fight a virus if you don’t know where it is,” the WHO’s director general, Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, said at a briefing on Friday. “Find, isolate, test and treat every case to break the chains of Covid transmission. Every case we find and treat limits the expansion of the disease.”
Posted 4 years ago # -
Wonder when china will kick back into life and if the cases will go up again?.
Hong Kong and Singapore can crack down as small islands? Thailand acted sharpish too and this seems to have limited cases for now......
Posted 4 years ago # -
“Latvia has banned all public gatherings of more than 50 people, its prime minister, Arturs Krišjānis Kariņš, has announced.”
“Latvia will also close its borders to all foreigners from Tuesday to stop the spread of the outbreak.”
Posted 4 years ago # -
1140 now, though the figure is pointless if your not testing properly.
Posted 4 years ago # -
121 in Scotland, though probably multiply that by six or ten for real figure...
Posted 4 years ago # -
All tinned vegetables sold out in Sainsburys. Had to buy a jar of artichokes instead.
Everyone carrying bog roll looking guilty regardless.
Posted 4 years ago # -
i'm four days into a "mild flu virus" and the lack of access to testing is a bit frustrating. not that i've asked for one, but anyway.
for everyone else's sake you have to assume its covid-19 and self isolate, but for your own sake you have to consider that maybe its just a bog standard flu and the bogey man has yet to arrive.
all a bit schrodinger's cat really, so sod it i'm having a beer. no more than two though.. might collapse the state vector.
Posted 4 years ago # -
Lots of new travel restrictions, lockdowns and border closures. Is there any other country that's following a herd immunity strategy like the UK?
Posted 4 years ago # -
Today's global overview from EU source:
Africa: Egypt (93), Algeria (26), South Africa (24), Senegal (19), Tunisia (16), Morocco (7), Burkina Faso (2), Cameroon (2), Democratic Republic Of The Congo (2), Ghana (2), Nigeria (2), Cote D’ivoire (1), Ethiopia (1), Gabon (1), Guinea (1), Kenya (1), Sudan (1) and Togo (1).
Asia: China (80 973), Iran (11 364), South Korea (8 086), Japan (737), Qatar (320), Bahrain (210), Singapore (200), Malaysia (197), Israel (116), Kuwait (100), Iraq (93), Saudi Arabia (86), United Arab Emirates (85), India (83), Thailand (82), Indonesia (69), Lebanon (66), Philippines (64), Taiwan (53), Vietnam (49), Brunei Darussalam (37), Palestine* (35), Pakistan (21), Oman (20), Maldives (9), Afghanistan (7), Sri Lanka (6), Cambodia (5), Bangladesh (3), Bhutan (1), Jordan (1), Mongolia (1) and Nepal (1).
America: United States (2 174), Canada (176), Brazil (98), Chile (43), Peru (38), Panama (36), Argentina (34), Costa Rica (26), Mexico (26), Ecuador (23), Colombia (16), Dominican Republic (11), Bolivia (10), Jamaica (8), Paraguay (7), Cuba (4), Honduras (3), Trinidad and Tobago (2), Guyana (1) and Saint Vincent and The Grenadines (1).
Europe: Italy (17 660), Spain (4 231), France (3 661), Germany (3 062), Switzerland (1 121), Denmark (804), Netherlands (804), Sweden (775), United Kingdom (707), Norway (621), Belgium (559), Austria (504), Greece (190), Finland (155), Czech Republic (150), Slovenia (141), Iceland (117), Portugal (112), Ireland (91), Romania (89), Estonia (79), San Marino (73), Poland (68), Georgia (46), Russia (45), Serbia (41), Luxembourg (38), Albania (33), Bulgaria (31), Croatia (31), Slovakia (30), Hungary (25), Belarus (21), Latvia (19), Cyprus (14), Armenia (13), Azerbaijan (13), North Macedonia (13), Malta (12), Moldova (8), Lithuania (6), Liechtenstein (4), Bosnia and Herzegovina (3), Ukraine (3), Andorra (2), Turkey (2), Holy See (1) and Monaco (1).
Oceania: Australia (197) and New Zealand (6).Other: International conveyance in Japan (696).
* This designation shall not be construed as recognition of a State of Palestine and is without prejudice to the individual positions of the Member States on this issue.
I went to Akva tonight with Mrs LB. Customer to staff ratio very high. Staff wiping down surfaces - tables quite far apart.
Basically all our routines are now altered but feels right not to stay in unless a curfew is imposed (!)
Getting out on a bike won't stop infections but at least keeps your physical and mental health in good shape.
Posted 4 years ago # -
“
“The US government didn’t want to cause panic but Americans panic when there they sense there’s no plan. That vacuum creates panic.”
“
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/14/coronavirus-us-testing-donald-trump
Posted 4 years ago # -
nice data visualisation of plagues in history
Posted 4 years ago # -
@srd the Washington Post one with the dynamic simulations of quarantine V social distancing also interesting. Not sure about the guy in the YouTube video with his buckets.
Posted 4 years ago # -
my point about the guy with buckets was more to point out that the govt could do a better job of selling their policies. ie there is a logic. which I think they've done a poor job of explaining. (which is a separate point from if I think it's the right policy).
Posted 4 years ago # -
@laidback - I've been told South Africa is 51 today
Posted 4 years ago # -
@SRD - agreed. As the YouTube guy said - If he had known his video would have gone viral he would have worn a better t-shirt
I do not know what is right but as I mentioned up-thread - we need to see what happens when the countries in lock down come out of lockdown
All sorts of imponderables from the real cost of global travel for all through to the real costs of open plan offices running in my head just now
Posted 4 years ago # -
the scottish CMO on R4 Broadcasting house v. good. near the start of the programme.
Posted 4 years ago # -
“(which is a separate point from if I think it's the right policy)”
Which is the problem - no one CAN know.
No one knows if a single set of processes would be best in all localities.
No one seems to know if people can be reinfected or if there will be a significant resurgence in China (etc) when restrictions end.
“the govt could do a better job of selling their policies. ie there is a logic. which I think they've done a poor job of explaining”
One reality is that all a Govs have had to change policies as understandings evolve.
I suspect one problem is the reality of balancing minimising spread (and/or speed of spread) with consequences - anticipated and unexpected.
If total isolation (food deliveries etc by drone) was possible would it even be a good idea??
Is the (Gov) priority to minimise deaths (especially amongst older/vulnerable)? - should it be?
One part of the UK plan is to minimise disruption to business and people’s daily lives.
Is that pragmatic, pointless or counterproductive?
How much is Gov (understandably) worrying about the future where some/many businesses will have gone bust and populations may have very different feelings about risks and rewards.
Late summer - will there be a rush to fly to get away from it all?
Is this real - “CALL TO ARMS British industry on war footing as Boris Johnson asks Rolls Royce & JCB to build ventilators to treat coronavirus”?
If so, perhaps it can be developed for tackling the Climate Emergency?
Posted 4 years ago # -
On a lighter note, Mrs G has just been panic-buying potting compost. She wisely realised that we've got a seed order coming and may not be able to get to the allotment to plant them.
Posted 4 years ago #
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