I'm honestly lost with this story - what is she meant to have done now?
CityCyclingEdinburgh Forum » Debate!
We need a Scottish Parliament election thread
(1355 posts)-
Posted 3 years ago #
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It would appear the "don't rock the boat" faction have won out, not only in the SNP, but in the wider independence movement and even in the Scottish media.
I'm resorting to gembo's bloc theory as the likely explanation. The bloc have decided they like Oor Nicola, and that Nothing Must Stand In Her Way.
P.S.:- Salmond never popular with the media, but they appear to have closed ranks agin him because a) he hosted a show on RT, which puts him beyond the pale in the eyes of many; ii) despite being acquitted, many still believe he is a wrong 'un; Vx) they hate mavericks and really prefer People Like Them in politics.
Posted 3 years ago # -
@jonty
The suggestion is that some people who really should have known better broke lots of rules and laws in an effort to first discredit and then imprison the previous first minister.
The further suggestion is that nobody much is making much of fuss about this because the current first minister has entered into some kind of understanding that she will talk about independence but not actively pursue it. Given the state of the polls this means that the best course of action for people opposed to Scottish independence is to make sure Ms Sturgeon stays in post as long as possible.
It's quite odd.
Posted 3 years ago # -
Who is this understanding with, on the Unionist side? My impression from the media has been that the main parties seem to be going in pretty hard on this.
Is the underlying assumption here that AS never behaved inappropriately and all the women who said he might have done were lying?
Posted 3 years ago # -
Legally, Salmond was acquitted of all charges.
However the "underlying assumption" across much of the commentariat appears to be that Salmond got off on a technicality, but is guilty in a #MeToo stylee. Hence Dani Garavelli, Kirsty Wark et al gathering on Beebly Scotland "programme" in cafe near High Court to gossip and basically say "he may have been acquitted in law, but we know he's guilty". Some might say this is a classic smear tactic, reminiscent of the Soviet Union when someone was needing rid of.
The fact that one of the key witnesses was shown in court to have been economical with la verité, has seeded the idea amongst Salmond supporters that there was a deliberate conspiracy to get him imprisoned on trumped up charges. For his opponents, this is a mere trifle and the unspoken rule appears to be that the ends justify the means as the man is not only a pest but a Threat To The Union.
As this whole case is subject to Contempt Of Court proceedings you're unlikely to get at "the truth" anytime soon...
Posted 3 years ago # -
"Given the state of the polls this means that the best course of action for people opposed to Scottish independence is to make sure Ms Sturgeon stays in post as long as possible"
That's the real dillema. NS has cult like status among much, even most of the Scottish electorate, she can do no wrong (Covid, Education, drug policy, Salmond enquiry and many other things that the electorate don't seem to care about asside).
However once BJ says no to Indy, and brushes her under the carpet, and infuriates the faithful. Her unwillingness to go further on Indy could see Joanna Cherry and others try to overthrow her.
Joanna Cherry as the front of SNP not likely to be as appealing to the Scottish electorate as NS, and over the crest we go . If Labour then win the next UK GE and the dogs are more settled, you can forget about indy for another 25 years.
Posted 3 years ago # -
Kirsty Wark's programme was totally out of order, whatever you think of Salmond.
Article here:-
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-55738179
This is very high drama - always a bad sign in politics. Power struggles and rising narrative tension. You start casting mentally. Salmond - Timothy Spall? Mark Strong (a bit too handsome).
Cf Geoffrey Howell's denunciation of Thatcher to her resignation.
Also recent events in Washington - this account is worth reading. It reeks of Downfall.https://www.axios.com/off-the-rails-episodes-cf6da824-83ac-45a6-a33c-ed8b00094e39.html
Posted 3 years ago # -
I very carefully used the word 'inappropriate' rather than 'criminal'. The law holds people to a lower standard of behaviour - and higher bar of proof - than an employment contract or indeed "polite society" does. I'm not sure whether this inquiry is meant to establish anything with respect to the latter point - from the coverage I've caught, its main focus seems to be a careful examination of Nicola Sturgeon's diary - but it will be interesting to see any conclusions there. If not, I suppose it's up to individuals and institutions to examine the available evidence and make up their own minds.
Presumably we would expect to see Tommy Sheridan-style perjury trials if the whole thing is found to be trumped up? I understand the significance of that a bit more than which day of the week a meeting happened on.
I'm still reeling at the idea that Nicola Sturgeon is a closet unionist though - genuinely didn't realise this was a mainstream viewpoint in the SNP. I suppose it would go some way to explaining why her party seems to be intent on eating itself at the moment. A bit conspiratorial for me, but time will tell. I suppose if a unionist has managed to eke out a 10% indy lead in the polls then a genuine friend of independence might be expected to double it?
As a supporter of a non-SNP-approved blend of independence I fear Baldcyclists' prophecy might be a bit more plausible. (And that's the first time I've dared put the word 'plausible' near a 2025 Labour GE victory!)
Posted 3 years ago # -
Who is this understanding with, on the Unionist side?
Nobody knows. The British state has a long history of using kompromat to maintain its empire and without a doubt spends a lot of time spying on Scottish nationalists.
My impression from the media has been that the main parties seem to be going in pretty hard on this.
Not really, no. Ms Baillie and Mr Cole-Hamilton now have to resign if they are to maintain the idea that they aren't just playing along. Without access to Mr Aberdein's statement the whole committee process is a farce.
I don't think Ms Sturgeon is a unionist but I do think she isn't actively pursuing independence. The proof of that is that she hasn't already achieved that goal in what are the most favourable of circumstances. The whole world was already laughing at the British state before it set about allowing the mass death of its own citizens. Any competent politician (and she is one) pursuing independence would be there already.
Posted 3 years ago # -
So the (alleged) situation is:
- NS is at the centre of a conspiracy to perjure Alex Salmond
- she is also being blackmailed or otherwise influenced by some arm of the British state - perhaps MI5
- a less compromised leader would have achieved independence in the period 2016-2020This raises further questions.
Was the AS conspiracy off her own back or was she blackmailed into that too?
Do we know what Alex Salmond was planning to do to NS/the British state that necessitated this presumably quite risky plan?
What independence-achieving mechanisms did NS suppress in the period 2016-2020?
The last bit smacks of "any other leader would be 20 points ahead" to me. Labour is learning how that one goes the hard way.
Posted 3 years ago # -
Kirsty Blackman MP said this of the recently found to be entirely innocent former first minister;
Man who has admitted acting inappropriately and abusing his power with young female staff is now trying to blame his female successor for people learning what an awful human he’s been.
So you can see that her party (and the former first minister's former party) is subject to some pretty vicious in-fighting.
Posted 3 years ago # -
All these theories about Sancta Moany - isn't it that she is a fairly cautious politician, who has to dangle indy as a carrot for Nats to vote for her, and OTOH knows that running another indyref then setting up a separate country would be a large endeavour? After all, she is in the sweet position of having a scapegoat for any screw ups (Westminster) and being the idol of English progressives, as a kind of quasi Opposition.
Posted 3 years ago # -
I think folk need to step away from twitter....
Posted 3 years ago # -
What independence-achieving mechanisms did NS suppress in the period 2016-2020?
All of them, specifically;
1) Failing to bring a case to court to find out if the 1998 Act prevents the Scottish Government holding a referendum on a constitutional matter. A private citizen called Martin Keating is currently doing just that as I type. The Lord Advocate, a Scottish Government minister is, and I kid you not, opposing him.
2) Campaigning to reverse the Brexit England clearly voted for, thus wasting huge resources.
3) Distancing herself from the much wider Yes movement and indeed implying that that movement is peopled with goblins.
4) Failing to strike a bargain with Mrs May to vote for her Brexit deal in return for a sanctioned referendum on Scottish independence.
5) Failing to actually request permission to hold a referendum. Everyone thinks she did, but she didn't, she just raised the possibility of doing it.
6) Failing to campaign for independence at all in five years.
7) Failing to agree that the election in May this year should be a single-issue plebiscite on independence.
8) Openly claiming that the British state has a veto over the will of the Scottish people in regards to their self government.The list goes on.
Posted 3 years ago # -
@ jonty
I think you should be writing that up as a film treatment.
Fiction of course so no pretence of ‘true story’.
Though whichever way you do it, no one will think it’s credible!
Posted 3 years ago # -
Hmmm, not convinced @IWRATS. Bit of 20/20 hindsight in that list, given how little say we actually have in this union would any other politician have managed independence with out actively inciting civil unrest in the country? If London aren't going to sanction it then the alternative routes are pretty radical and probably not going to end well.
Posted 3 years ago # -
"Scotland is not independent because Britain blackmailed Nicola Sturgeon into opposing Brexit" is not the take I expected from 2021.
Posted 3 years ago # -
@steveo
For clarity I have no idea what's going on. But that's the list of things a shrewd player would have done/not done.
It's obviously much better to divorce amicably but nobody accepts that their spouse has a veto over divorce and sometimes it's best to pack a bag and run.
Posted 3 years ago # -
@jonty
Think you've gone too far there. Opposing Brexit was just a happy place for her to be - it's a wretched idea and lots of nice people were nice to her for a change.
Posted 3 years ago # -
> I think you should be writing that up as a film treatment.
fast-follow sequel: an imagining of the months between the moment the SNP votes for Brexit and the moment the Scottish people elect them shepherds of the nation's future
it's an absurdist comedy
Posted 3 years ago # -
the SNP votes for Brexit
One could rephrase that: votes to allow England to get the gentlest form of what it voted for. Mrs May's deal would have seen the whole UK of GB&NI having the status Northern Ireland currently does.
No omelettes without breaking eggs and all that. This is a fight, not a tea dance.
Posted 3 years ago # -
No one above has mentioned NS’s husband.
The other strand of intrigue is to what extent one, or both, or neither was involved in whatever - with or without telling the other half!
#MeToo has, quite rightly, changed the way people look at/turn a blind eye to ‘inappropriate behaviour’.
Obviously I’m not saying anyone has done anything. In a world where Trump seems to have got away with a lot and Biden has had ‘boundaries’ pointed out to him, goalposts move.
Unfortunately (in Scotland) this is now intermixed with Indy in ways that are either obvious politicking or bafflingly opaque - depending on who people want to believe.
The idea that NS is a Unionist mole is of course ‘incredible’ (but who knows??)
She is a politician and therefore expected to be honest, and devious.
NOBODY can say when the best, guaranteed, date for a Yes vote in a referendum would be.
For those who want Independence, a Yes vote by a clear margin is desirable and almost certainly essential.
Unfortunately no one in Scotland can actually authorise an IndyRef that everyone would regard as legitimate, so the fact (if it is) that half of the SNP want IndRef now isn’t really going to make NS organise one. The fact that she doesn’t isn’t really a sign of being a ‘secret unionist’.
In a world where GB/English ‘unionists’ seem/are willing to abandon the bit of the UK that actually has card carrying Unionists, nothing much makes sense.
In addition to whatever voters in Scotland may or may not vote for, now or whenever, there’s Covid and Climate Change AND COP26.
Posted 3 years ago # -
“the SNP votes for Brexit”
Not all its members/supporters did.
Same with GP.
Posted 3 years ago # -
Additionally, arguably, we are where we are because Parties and parties (of all sorts) ‘wanting the UK to stay together’ have serially failed to devise/argue for options for more devolution/federalism/degrees of regional autonomy/home rule etc that could/might turn people away from Independence (for Scotland).
Perhaps a more competently run Gov in Westminster could ‘help’.
Boris is weakly Trump lite but there is realistically no UK version of Biden.
Biden/Harris may not work out well, but they are offering something different and have already started rolling back some of the last 4 years.
This thread is about the imminent Holyrood election.
Whatever anyone thinks about NS, The SNP (and the way it runs SGov), Independence etc, after all these years there is no viable alternative either as a single Party or firm or loose coalition.
Posted 3 years ago # -
Just gotta stick with the facts. The British state practically fell apart but the Scottish Government invested more time in trying to smear and then jail one of its former first ministers than in its stated goal of Scottish independence.
The explanation, whatever it is, is bound to be quite mad.
Posted 3 years ago # -
Distancing herself from the much wider Yes movement and indeed implying that that movement is peopled with goblins
Do think that if a chunk of them are suggesting Northern Irish, United States, Catalonia levels of unrest that maybe she has a point....
Posted 3 years ago # -
Is the explanation "credible accusations of sexual harassment must be dealt with extremely seriously" simply too mad to be believable?
Posted 3 years ago # -
@steveo: Surely not! Sounds a bit close to colonist thinking to me.
Posted 3 years ago # -
"If Labour then win the next UK GE"
That's.....a stretch. To put it mildly.
I suppose Sir Keith might pull off a Biden and get in mainly by virtue of being "not-Boris".
I wouldn't write off the Tories though, at least south of the border. All they really need to do is convince the Brexit faithful that "someone else" is responsible for Brexit being a disaster. The EU for instance, or the Scots, or "Remoaners", or blame the pandemic, or some combo of the aforementioned. Then it will be Tories back ion again in 2024 - with or without Johnson at the helm.
Posted 3 years ago # -
@jonty
1) The accusations weren't credible. Twenty police worked for a year and got nothing.
2) They were dealt with so badly that huge amounts of our money were paid in compensation. The first investigation collapsed after Scot Gov's legal advisors threatened to resign.Nobody has been well served, not the accusers, not the accused.
@steveo
Nobody's suggesting that? Lots of people are suggesting that normal, legal and traditional methods be used.
Posted 3 years ago #
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