.@TheScotsman / @SavantaComRes poll
Constituency vote (+/- vs. March 5 - 10):
SNP - 49% (+1)
Tories - 23% (-)
Lab - 18% (-2)
LD - 6% (-2)
List:
SNP - 40% (-)
Tories - 21% (-3)
Lab - 18% (-)
Greens - 9% (-1)
LD - 7%. (+1)
Alba - 3%
CityCyclingEdinburgh Forum » Debate!
We need a Scottish Parliament election thread
(1355 posts)-
Posted 4 years ago #
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“
If all of Alba’s voters moved back to the SNP, Ms Sturgeon’s party would return a majority of three MSPs with an enhanced overall number of pro-independence MSPs when combined with the Scottish Greens instead of narrowly missing out on a majority.
The poll also shows the Scottish Conservatives are set to lose six seats under the leadership of Douglas Ross with a constituency vote of 23 per cent (no change) and a list vote of 21 per cent (down three per cent), with the party predicted to return 25 MSPs.
Anas Sarwar’s Scottish Labour have also seen a small drop in the constituency vote, down two per cent to 18 per cent, but the party’s support in the regional list has stayed static at 18 per cent with a return of 23 MSPs, down one from 2016.
The Scottish Greens are the main winners when compared to 2016’s results with their regional list vote share of nine per cent, down one per cent from March, returning a record 10 MSPs.
Posted 4 years ago # -
"... under the 'leadership' of Douglas Ross..."
My single quotes. Our poor postie had to deliver the Tories' leaflet the other day. One side named the presumed local candidate but the only other named person on the outside was Ruth Davidson, effectively admitting that Douglas Ross is still too low-profile.
Posted 4 years ago # -
but weren't;t the greens similarly predicted a big rise in seats at about this point in the polling last time?
(Doubtless someone will be along to correct me, but I am having strong feelings of deja vu)
Posted 4 years ago # -
Scottish parliament voting intention(s):
Constituency:
SNP: 53% (+7)
CON: 21% (-3)
LAB: 18% (-2)
LDEM: 6% (-)List:
SNP: 44% (+2)
CON: 22% (-)
LAB: 17% (-2)
GRN: 7% (-)
LDEM: 5% (-)
ALBA: 2% (+2)via @OpiniumResearch, 01 - 06 Apr
Chgs. w/ 16 MarPosted 4 years ago # -
I don't want an SNP majority, and it seems the voters don't either. Minority government is healthier for democracy, helps rein in the hubris of politicians somewhat.
Still haven't decided who to vote for. In the absence of wild card maverick candidates, will probably go for "least worst" option...
Posted 4 years ago # -
My least worst option is Cole-Hamilton! :(
Posted 4 years ago # -
I learned this week that Cole-Hamilton was in the year above me at school. I have no memory of him however.
It was a bumper period for political achievers as Liam Fox's special advisor Adam Werritty was in my year!
Posted 4 years ago # -
@steveo, surely there must be someone else you could vote for?!?!!
Posted 4 years ago # -
@Steveo, I have never before spoiled a ballot paper. However with the available constituency options I wonder if this might be my first time. Forget USPs every candidate/party seems to have provided a unique reason not to vote for them. Although Webber and Cole-Hamilton certainly have reasonably large shared area in the ven diagram.
Posted 4 years ago # -
@steveo, surely there must be someone else you could vote for?!?!!
you'd like to think so but at the moment I think I'm in @acsimpsons boat of a spoilt ballot.
(For the record I am not voting for ACH!)
Posted 4 years ago # -
It is looking a bit grim in Edinburgh Western right enough.
Reckon Edinburgh Central voters are spoilt for choice in comparison.
Posted 4 years ago # -
I reckon Beijing Central has better options than Edinburgh Western :D
Posted 4 years ago # -
@Crowriver,
The choices in Edinburgh Western are thin pickings, especially if you aren't convinced by SNPs policies.
- There's Cole-Hamilton and his gas mask, good for those who like the status quo (ie LTNs where there are LTNs, no LTNs where there are no LTNs. And unregulated rampant polution pretty much everywhere)
- Then there's Susan Webber, I don't suspect she needs any introduction.
- Sarah Mason from the SNP looks like a good choice if you are pro SNP or want Cole-Hamilton out at all costs.
- Margaret Graham from Labour is less palatable with Keir (Boris light) Starmer heading up their parent organisation than she would have been under Corbyn.
- Finally we apparently have a candidate from the Scottish Libertarian party. I haven't heard of them before but can't imagine that libertarianism is compatible with avoiding further climate/societal breakdown. Last time round this party managed 0.3% of the Central Edinburgh votes.
Of course the positions of ACH and SW on the list papers pretty much guarantees them seats either way. If ACH were to end up with a list seat there is a risk that he might do so at the expense of a Green Candidate, but I'm not sure that tactically voting for someone you don't think does a good job is sensible.
Posted 4 years ago # -
Well in Edinburgh Northern and Leith I have a slightly better menu of choices:
Scottish Liberal Democrats - Bell, Rebecca. Although there are a couple of policy points I agree with the party on (Cannabis legalisation and PR for Westminster) neither is within the purview of Holyrood. I can't forgive them for 2010 or 2019, so it's a no.
Scottish Labour Party - Faccenda, Katrina. Actually seems a decent candidate, Socialist Campaign Group, etc. but there's the matter of the party's "New Leadership" wrapping itself in the union flag and trying to outflank the Tories from the right. I can't vote for Labour under these circumstances, no.
Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party - Laidlaw, Callum. Unclear if Callum is a good candidate or not, I refuse to vote for this party. Ever.
Scottish National Party (SNP) - Macpherson, Ben. Quite apart from my issues with his party's record on transport, the environment, and the economy, the fact remains I have no idea what Ben Macpherson stands for, other than his own career. Another slick, besuited lawyer climbing the ministerial ladder. No.
Freedom Alliance – Integrity, Society, Economy - Pullman, Jon. Not sure who this bunch are, but it sounds like right wing libertarianism to me. Not anarchism for sure as anarchists don't generally get involved in elections and voting. On checking their web site, this group appears to be largely an anti-lockdown campaign. Whilst I sympathise with concerns around individual liberty, freedom of expression and choice, right to protest and so on, it's notable that they don't actually mention why we are in lockdown - y'know, a small detail but there is a global pandemic going on. So maybe Covid deniers too. No.
Scottish Green Party - Slater, Lorna. So here comes the crunch decision. I know Lorna, have met her, campaigned with her/for her in the past. I am not very happy with her, or the Scottish Green Party for their treatment of a number of party members including Andy Wightman. However Andy is now living in the Highlands and I cannot vote for him. So, given the other choices available, Ms Slater is my "least worst" choice. I agree with almost all the party policies, and she would probably be an effective MSP.
As for the Lothians list, I'll need to look at it in more detail. A fair amount of choice available, but some options looking rather unpalatable.
Posted 4 years ago # -
@crowriver, sounds like you have talked yourself into voting green at no 1. Personally I would advise you to also give them your list vote. Up to you.
Mrs Garto spotted we have a Family Party candidate. Oh my sweet lord. Flagellate children, make cyclists cycle on the pavement, et cetera
Posted 4 years ago # -
Lorna Slater did pretty well putting case for the environment being looked after by people living in that environment and not the Cayman Islands. Greens seem to annoy many and ignored by UK media. Must be doing something right although GRA is a issue that divides opinion. Down south they only have Caroline Lucas due to their backward voting system.
For unpalatable this interview sums it up!
https://twitter.com/PhantomPower14/status/1379942135563177991?s=19Posted 4 years ago # -
@miniSRD was ranting at me about the family party. really appalled they exist.
Posted 4 years ago # -
@crowriver i must confess that I think I was FB friends with the Freedom Alliance party candidate. Not entirely sure how we became friends, but we certainly shared some political interests, until he went lockdown skeptic...
Posted 4 years ago # -
@gembo, Alison Johnstone is a good MSP, so I'm certainly amenable. However I will look at the list in detail before coming to a view.
Posted 4 years ago # -
@LaidBack - the extraordinary thing is Galloway's supporters seemed to think he performed extremely well in that interview.
I have pretty much voted green or labour my entire life but I have to admit Catriona Macdonald (SNP) will be getting my vote on the constituency vote - she's young. bright and full of empathy and idealism. I'll take that over the "experienced" Daniel Johnson. As far as environmental issues, Catriona Macdonald has been much more supportive of what I see as a necessary modal shift than Daniel Johnson who always has one eye on the possible lost votes by supporting greener policies - or at least that's how I see it. He's certainly been massively unhelpful vacillating about active travel and stressing the apparent need for people to drive to Morningside and Bruntsfield shops.
I know Catriona Macdonald has replied to the Walk, Wheel Cycle Vote survey so hopefully her answers will be up soon. The family party's answers are unpalatable to say the least.
Posted 4 years ago # -
I am hopeful the Family Party receive very few votes
Posted 4 years ago # -
(Not a local candidate)
“
The right-wing Scottish Family Party was established in 2017 by former UKIP candidate Richard Lucas, who remains its leader.
The party is neutral on matter such as Scottish independence and mainly focuses on campaigning against what it calls “identity politics” –LGBT sex education and trans rights.
Well known in Sutherland for organising a popular annual Halloween extravaganza – which did not take place in 2020 because of Covid-19 – Mr Tanzer moved to the area nine years ago.
His arrival caused some controversy after an article about his past in the gay porn industry was run by a national Sunday newspaper.
“
Posted 4 years ago # -
Do I want to Google the family party?
Posted 4 years ago # -
@steveo, I don’t think so. I kept begging Mrs Garto to stop reading me their manifesto but she persisted
Posted 4 years ago # -
I cracked. Mrs Garto does like tormenting you!
Posted 4 years ago # -
Posted 4 years ago #
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The perceived threat of the Alba party seems to have set the cat among the pigeons in the cosy, middle class consensus politics that MacMillan has come to represent in recent years. A lot of accusations and baseless assertions in that piece, which could be more aptly summarised as "Don't rock the boat, I have a pension to collect soon."
It's probably too early to say whether Alba will be a positive or negative force in Scottish politics, but if it shakes a few establishment figures out of their complacency that will be no bad thing, as it exposes their true position, that of resisting change.
Posted 4 years ago # -
Radio Scotland has been suspended with feed from Radio 5.
To mark the passing of the Duke of Edinburgh.
Election campaigns suspended too.
Can't believe our 'national' broadcaster had no way of handling such news and is merely taken off air. Weird as each nation of UK has their view on royal family and should be refected. Surely? Not saying we should disrespect but other Commonwealth nations also have to deal with 'their' shared royal family.Posted 4 years ago # -
@laidback. Weird. Still should be a cheeky wee extra public holiday
Posted 4 years ago #
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