http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-15814118
The number of cars on the roads is expected to increase by almost 50% by 2035. The only solution is to build more roads...
CityCyclingEdinburgh Forum » Debate!
Millions more cars on the roads
(21 posts)-
Posted 13 years ago #
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The 80mph limit will sort it. If you drive 14% faster you'll be on the road for 14% less time pet journey, therefore there will be space on the road for 14% more cars. It's simple really...
Posted 13 years ago # -
This is back to the past stuff and slightly depressing and also a bit surprising - for several reasons.
I wonder how recent that claimed growth figure is. Even ignoring the likelihood of ever rising fuel prices, Peak Oil, the current recession, the World economic crisis etc. there is a reasonable amount of evidence that there is a desire for people to cycle more in cities and a continuing increase in travel by train.
Also the RAC (in the fairly recent past) has actually taken an interest in cycling -
http://road.cc/content/news/31550-rac-suggests-cyclist-left-turn-red-trials
Even having an RAC branded bicycle!
In addition - Stephen Glaister "has published widely on transport matter and was awarded the CBE for services to public transport in 1998" - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stephen_Glaister .
Posted 13 years ago # -
I'm not following this and looking at the RAC report hasn't helped. Someone predicts that the population will increase by 10 million. From that they work out that that means 4 million more cars, I guess on a straight application of the current number of cars per person. From 4 million more cars (an increase of 13%) they jump to an estimate of 43% more traffic.
The figures are quite bizarre in ways that I don't have time to try to figure out. All the projections take 2003 as their base year although they are dated 2009 and published May 2010 (see spreadsheet here). By 2015 traffic is projected to rise by 7% but by 2025 the projected increase is 25% and 43% by 2035.
These seem like pretty crude straight line forecasts, with no feedback ie that people don't switch modes as delays increase.
The date of May 2010 may be important. In the notes they say "The scenarios represent a continuation of current policies up to 2035 and are themselves consistent with policies described in recent Government papers."
Posted 13 years ago # -
Laughable. No mention of the argument for reducing tax on fuel last week because motorists are finding it tough. The argument seems to be there will be more cars so we will have to accommodate them.
However one might expect a large rise in cyclists (esp with fuel rises) - will there be a proportionate rise in spending?
Posted 13 years ago # -
"The argument seems to be there will be more cars so we will have to accommodate them."
That's basically been public policy for decades and has resulted in the M25 - and the widening of the M25.
Economic realities and some degree of change of views has moderated this a bit - especially in (most) cities. In Glasgow the recent new motorway (very old plan) was said to be more about 'economic growth' than 'catering for car number increase'.
In these austere times when economic growth is seen as 'the only way out of this mess', more roads will be argued for as a) 'economic growth stimulator' and b) an 'investment in infrastructure'.
I'm sure there are people here who would argue that the money would be better spent on fixing existing roads, and perhaps even building new/better cycle infrastructure.
But obviously 'we' are a minority who don't understand/count.
Posted 13 years ago # -
The transport experts don't seem to count either. Many is the time when they have noted the link between new roads and new traffic.
Posted 13 years ago # -
Of course, proper evidence (as opposed to anecdotal) is only used by politicians when it suits them.
Posted 13 years ago # -
RAC Foundation director Professor Stephen Glaister said: "Forget about Plan B, ministers do not even have a Plan A for dealing with the awful conditions forecast for the roads in the years ahead. It is a case of jams today, and even more jams tomorrow.
The Professor hits the nail on the head. But solution is quite obviously more cars. Coming from someone with a CBE for "services to Public Transport".
Posted 13 years ago # -
The RAC Foundation fully accepts that we should not and cannot ‘build ourselves out of trouble’ (page 42)
Their big idea seems to road pricing not building to accommodate.
Posted 13 years ago # -
Didn't we reach Peak Car not long ago ?
We may have hoped but the signs don't look too good....!
Edinburgh still has lots more cars to be bought I'm afraid, as the population has been slower than many places to buy cars. This is due to our great bus service more than bike 'provision'. On our cycle yesterday we came across a gift wrapped car with bow on top near Craigentinny. This was a 21st present for another new driver.
Taking a poll of my daughter and friends only she and a couple of others cycle short distances as 17 year olds. They all really want to drive and own a car and are encouraged by the new 'eco' cars that promise fuel economy with 'eco-cred'.
New media on their smart phones is saturated with ads for cars like the Fiat Air Freshner...
There are no bike ads.
Posted 13 years ago # -
There was a purple (not gift wrapped) islabike in my kitchen this morning for a 5th birthday present!
Posted 13 years ago # -
yes...
sounds very nice - happy birthday to K!
but... cycling and cars are all about 'personal' mobility so don't expoct that wil make her less likely to want a car.I'm afraid the value of having a car is endlessly re-enforced from early years. That and the fact that the road is a 'railway' for cars.
Many families spend hours and hours in cars with their families. In fact it's often the only time they are close together so you can never underestimate how powerful the allure of motoring is.
Young children sit behind their parents and watch how they drive and 'learn' about driving and the 'necesssity' of a car. Kind of outguns other influences - particularly as that real experience is then backed up by advertising showing how 'cuddly' cars are nowadays.
Posted 13 years ago # -
"Many families spend hours and hours in cars with their families. In fact it's often the only time they are close together so you can never underestimate how powerful the allure of motoring is."
I have been thinking about this over lunch and I think what is needed is not the banning of smoking in cars with children but compulsory smoking in cars with children. That way, the child will grow up not only with a pathological hatred of smoking but a pathological hatred of cars too.
Except that my brother is a rally driver and has about three cars so it may not work in all cases..
Posted 13 years ago # -
There is also still a very very strong media influence that driving is normal and expected of everybody. I saw a trailer last night for a new comedy (apparently..) called (I think) The Cafe. I can't remember which channel but one of the comedy characters was a sad loser cyclist who is desperate to get a car. I'm going to go out on a limb here and postulate that he doesn't have a girlfriend either and is desperate for one of those too.
I doubt many people will watch it but it is just another case of abnormal/loser cyclist being worked into the nations psyche.
Posted 13 years ago # -
just another case of abnormal/loser cyclist being worked into the nations psyche.
Yep.. but it's pretty lazy comedy. Is it a C4 one?
When times get tough you do see a return to 'traditional values' where the vulnerable are good for a laugh.
Governments also like the policy of 'if in doubt, build a road - or better still a bridge!'Posted 13 years ago # -
Yep.. but it's pretty lazy comedy. Is it a C4 one?
Worse. SKY. I saw the trailer on SkyArts last night.
Posted 13 years ago # -
"Mass motoring was soooo last century"
Posted 13 years ago # -
To be fair - that's not the RAC's projection - it's the DfT's. And it's just as much of an error to project short term trends over long periods. In spite of the recent downturn, the upward projections are more consistent with the long term trend than a downward projection would be. Much too early to say it's peaked. Look at the chart and notice how it flattens in 1989 to 1993 - another period of recession in the UK - only to kick upwards as the economy recovers.
Posted 13 years ago # -
"
A report from the RAC Foundation warns that with congestion on the rise on Britain’s roads, the country is heading for gridlock. The suggested solution? Encourage people to change to other modes of transport such as cycling and walking for shorter journeys, and promote car-sharing and use of public transport for longer ones? Not even close. It’s to spend more money on roads, and to charge people for using some of them."
http://road.cc/content/news/48138-britains-roads-are-heading-gridlock-warns-rac-foundation
Posted 13 years ago #
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