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85th Percentile

(25 posts)
  • Started 13 years ago by Wilmington's Cow
  • Latest reply from Instography

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  1. I asked about this on Twitter last night and got mixed responses. I searched a bit on Google, and the only 'scientific' studies I found were ones linked from the likes of SafeSpeed, which (the studies) state that the 85th percentile is actually the 'safest' speed for a road, even safer than driving at the actual limit or below.

    Thing is the studies are all the type of primary-colour-slideshow things that don't inspire confidence. Is there a definitive view either way? Does the 85th percentile just carry on rising if you raise the limits? And quite simply why are speed limits the one law that people seem to think is okay to break because it's stupid, and lots of people breaking the law is seen as the only justification required to remove the law?

    If we all armed ourselves with knives and started stabbing people would that mean that stabbing people should be made legal? I. Don't. Get. It.

    Posted 13 years ago #
  2. wingpig
    Member

    "...the 85th percentile is actually the 'safest' speed for a road, even safer than driving at the actual limit or below..."

    Their reasoning there may be heading into the realms of "safe" as in "not too many people will rear-end you and you won't be at the head of a huge queue (of increasingly-frustrated and therefore potentially risk-creating drivers) as you'll be going 'fast enough' for the 'feel' of the road" rather than "safe" as in "under proper control and alert to/able to cope with unexpectedness".

    Posted 13 years ago #
  3. Dave
    Member

    It doesn't make sense simply because the 85th percentile can be easily modified by changing road conditions, including amongst other things what the speed limit actually is.

    For example, one may argue that the 85th percentile speed past a primary school is safest, but if the school was in a 20mph limit or a 40mph limit (otherwise identical road conditions) the 85th percentile speed would be very different. It's utterly circular to say that the 85th percentile speed is the safest on that basis.

    Posted 13 years ago #
  4. That was definitely one argument I came across - if you drive 'too slowly' people behind get frustrated and then try to overtake dangerously. I still find that an odd argument for breaking the law in the first place, and replacing a law in the second.

    Posted 13 years ago #
  5. chdot
    Admin

    "the 85th percentile is actually the 'safest' speed for a road"

    ?

    I thought the "85th percentile" was the "speed which 85% of the vehicles are not exceeding" http://www.safespeed.org.uk/speedlimits.html

    I suppose it depends what you do with the numbers.

    "This leads to engineering recommendations that speed limits should normally be set at around the 85th or 90th percentile speed of traffic under good conditions."

    I've come across it in the context of arguing for roads to have work done to reduce 'perceived speeds'

    The 85% figure is used to show that 'most cars aren't going as fast as you think' (not that "most" is the issue!) or 'as cars go that fast, a lot of (expensive implied) measures will have to be put in place to reduce speeds'.

    Posted 13 years ago #
  6. kaputnik
    Moderator

    found were ones linked from the likes of SafeSpeed, which (the studies) state that the 85th percentile is actually the 'safest' speed for a road

    That's a disingenuous statement on their part. It may, by some perverse logic, be the "safest" speed for motorists in their crumple zone and airbag-reinforced steel boxes to drive at. It is not and never will be the "safest" speed for the road - for the road has other users; cyclists and pedestrians mainly - which makes the 85th percentile rule complete nonsense - as it is proven time after time after time that the only real way to increase road safety is to cut speed.

    It really sickens me that some poeple think their personal requirement to be able to drive at a certain speed to get somewhere possibly 30 seconds (if at all) quicker outweighs other people's right to life.

    Posted 13 years ago #
  7. wingpig
    Member

    Whilst the best way of planning where to put a path on a field is often to let desire lines develop to see where people want to go given where they want to get to, letting people drive at whatever speed they like on a bit of road then basing the speed limit on the speed beneath which 85% of sample drivers drive is nowhere near as sensible. It's quite difficult to walk across a bit of grass in a life-endangering manner.

    Posted 13 years ago #
  8. chdot
    Admin

    "It's quite difficult to walk across a bit of grass in a life-endangering manner."

    Now there's a challenge!

    Is 'field with bull' an option?

    Posted 13 years ago #
  9. amir
    Member

    This is clearly a misuse of statistics.

    I suspect that as well as absolute levels of speed being important, differences in speed are equally important for safety. So the presence of pedestrians, cyclists and even street furniture so mean that lower speed limits should apply.

    This should also be a major reason (amongst others) why the limits on motorways should not be raised. It will simply legitimise a greater range in speeds on the road. Besides when I am travelling on a motorway at 60-70 mph, it is really irritating when the many cars travelling at 80 mph and 90 mph stop me from overtaking slower vehicles.

    Posted 13 years ago #
  10. wingpig
    Member

    I thought a couple of recent tramplings were by ladycows convinced that the human interloper was after a calf. Other cows, perceiving the dealing-with-threat behaviour, would join in. Similarly herdishly, some drivers drive at the speed of traffic around them, presumably presuming safety at that speed if everyone else is going at that speed which is another reason for not setting limits based on exhibited speeds, which are also subject to increase by "knowing the road" or "knowing the car" or "knowing how to drive properly".

    Posted 13 years ago #
  11. "... ladycows..."

    Or cows as I believe they're known... ;)

    Posted 13 years ago #
  12. chdot
    Admin

    "knowing the road" or "knowing the car" or "knowing how to drive properly".

    AKA 'knowing it all'??

    Posted 13 years ago #
  13. Uberuce
    Member

    It reminds me of the reason track bikes aren't allowed brakes; I'm convinced by the argument that it's safer for the athletes if no-one can slow down rapidly, whilst being equally convinced that riding a fixed gear without brakes off a track is macho stupidity of the highest order.

    And I say that as someone who was inordinately proud of brakelessly keeping pace with a post-punture Kaputnik walking down the descent down to Pollock a few Hilly Tuesdays ago.

    Posted 13 years ago #
  14. Roibeard
    Member

    "... ladycows..."

    Bullocks.

    Pardon?

    Ladycows of Bangkok

    Robert
    (Coffee not working today...)

    Posted 13 years ago #
  15. Well that's the other odd argument. When people go on about how they are a good enough driver to assess the correct speed. Even if that's correct, it's only correct for them. If a large enough proportion of motorists (and there is a large enough proprtion) aren't that good then you've got to mandate a limit, and it has to be safe, and the nature of these things means that it has to apply in a blanket manner. Unless you get 'E' (for expert) plates on cars which means they are allowed to drive faster... We can't all have personal speed limits!

    Posted 13 years ago #
  16. I once rode Pedal for Scotland brakeless. In the wet. Brake cable snapped in the first mile - legs ached by the end, and the ride included some ninja skillz avoiding a rampaging dog on the north Edinburgh path (the owner seemingly oblivious to the thousands of cyclists pouring past).

    If I was to build a fixed again, and maybe it just shows I'm getting old, I'd have brakes front and rear. The rear might not get used much, but nice to have the security net.

    Posted 13 years ago #
  17. "Why the “85th percentile” Speed??

    A study conducted by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) Subcommittee on Traffic Engineering and based on a survey of traffic officials from all states and 44 city and county agencies, reviewed the principles and practices used to set speed limits.

    The study indicated that based on the best available evidence, the speed limit should be set at the speed driven by 85 to 90 % of the free-moving vehicles rounded up to the next 5 mph increment. The method results in speed limits that are not only acceptable to a large majority of the motorists, but also fall within the speed range where the accident risk is the lowest. Allowing a 5 mph tolerance, enforcement would be targeted at drivers who are clearly at risk.

    Traffic officials generally agree speed limits should reflect the speed of most drivers. All states and most local agencies use the 85th percentile speed of free-flowing traffic as the basic factor used to set speed limits. However, it is fairly common to reduce the speed limit based on a subjective consideration of other factors. If there are unusual hazards not readily apparent to drivers, then a warning sign could be installed giving the nature of the hazard, and if necessary, supplemented with a realistic advisory speed.

    Excerpted from “Synthesis of Speed Zoning Practice”, Technical Summary, FHWA/RD- 85/096"

    Posted 13 years ago #
  18. "Why the “85th percentile” Speed??

    A study conducted by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) Subcommittee on Traffic Engineering and based on a survey of traffic officials from all states and 44 city and county agencies, reviewed the principles and practices used to set speed limits.

    The study indicated that based on the best available evidence, the speed limit should be set at the speed driven by 85 to 90 % of the free-moving vehicles rounded up to the next 5 mph increment. The method results in speed limits that are not only acceptable to a large majority of the motorists, but also fall within the speed range where the accident risk is the lowest. Allowing a 5 mph tolerance, enforcement would be targeted at drivers who are clearly at risk.

    Traffic officials generally agree speed limits should reflect the speed of most drivers. All states and most local agencies use the 85th percentile speed of free-flowing traffic as the basic factor used to set speed limits. However, it is fairly common to reduce the speed limit based on a subjective consideration of other factors. If there are unusual hazards not readily apparent to drivers, then a warning sign could be installed giving the nature of the hazard, and if necessary, supplemented with a realistic advisory speed.

    Excerpted from “Synthesis of Speed Zoning Practice”, Technical Summary, FHWA/RD- 85/096"

    Posted 13 years ago #
  19. Morningsider
    Member

    The 85th percentile hasn't been used in the setting of speed limits in the UK since 2006. Average (mean)speeds are used instead. You can find the guidance given to roads authorities on setting speed limits at:

    http://www2.dft.gov.uk/pgr/roadsafety/speedmanagement/dftcircular106/dftcircular106.pdf

    Posted 13 years ago #
  20. Uberuce
    Member

    That safespeed site is pretty brazen about the evidence from the Canada and Iowa survey; they didn't suit their conclusion so they decide it's faulty.

    If they've applied the same level of diligence and scrutiny to the evidence that does agree with them, then fair enough. If.

    On the topic of the fact the speed limits are 50 years old and car brakes have become hugely better in the interim, I made the argument that the setters of that speed limit were completely barking mad to put it so high when brakes and tyres were such junk, and it's only because of the intervening progress made by legions of engineers that things are approaching sane.

    @anth: These days I use my hand brakes maybe twice a journey Slateford-Gyle, primarily because that means I can wear mahoosive skiing gloves.
    I have an unsettling feeling that the positive side effect(that I adopt a more anticipatory riding/braking style) might be outweighed by the extra glove padding and delay while I think 'Ulp, not slowing down fast enough here....oh, I remember: I can use the brakes."

    Muddying the waters further is all that Zen stuff about the mystical connection between rider and road. I sound like I'm in danger of attaching an amethyst to my bike's deceleration chakra as they're known to promote mothering protective energies, but the fact is I've normally got the sense of balance of a ten-pint drunk but I feel all mountain goaty on my fixed so something must be a-cloven-foot.

    Posted 13 years ago #
  21. slowcoach
    Member

    The 85th percentile hasn't been used in the setting of speed limits in the UK since 2006

    And even before 2006 wasn't the recommended limit based on the 85%ile less 20% of the proposed limit or 7mph, whichever was lower? So if the 85%ile was 37mph or less the limit could be 30mph, 48mph or lower could get a 40mph limit. Some people got themselves annoyed at the change from using 85%ile to mean, but the "less 20% or 7mph" bit meant that most of the time there wasn't much difference between the criteria.
    What was
    acceptable to a large majority of the motorists
    where the road death rate was much higher than here doesn't mean it is acceptable for the different mix of traffic we have.

    Posted 13 years ago #
  22. RJ
    Member

    anth: I once rode Pedal for Scotland brakeless. In the wet. Brake cable snapped in the first mile - legs ached by the end, and the ride included some ninja skillz avoiding a rampaging dog on the north Edinburgh path (the owner seemingly oblivious to the thousands of cyclists pouring past).

    And awesome skillz they woz ;)

    Posted 13 years ago #
  23. Instography
    Member

    There's an element of circularity in road design. The design of the road is a key part of 'explaining' to drivers how they should behave. Wide, two lanes, sweeping curves, long sight lines = fast and most drivers will drive quickly on them. Narrow, windy, houses, schools, pedestrians, parked cars and junctions = slow. Road design involves creating roads that will achieve the desired speed from most drivers most of the time. The 85th percentile speed should be a design element rather than something that spontaneously arises from drivers. If most drivers are ignoring a speed limit it means that the road isn't explaining itself properly. You can try enforcement but really you'd be better redesigning it and creating features bring speed down to what you want.

    There's nothing magical about the 85th percentile. It's not the safest in any absolute sense but if it is the speed at which most drivers drive setting that as the limit will tend to minimise speed differentials. In free-flowing traffic most drivers will drive at the norm speed. If you try to impose a low speed limit on a road that describes itself as faster you'll have greater speed differences even if most people comply. You'll have more people driving by the road - speeding.

    Now, you could argue that those speeding drivers should simply accept the decision made by those people in authority who "know better" and have selected the speed limit. It's a good moral or ethical position but not a practical one and it's oddly deferential. It neglects the reality that people will routinely ignore rules that are troublesome or illogical, particularly when nothing bad happens as a consequence and that's the reality for almost all speeding drivers almost all of the time. Their normal experience of speeding is that nothing happens so there's no reason not to.

    This all assumes that most drivers aren't sociopathic, which I don't think they are. But some of them are. The type of people who overstate their own abilities, consider themselves more able and more important than people around them and who feel that rules they find inconvenient should be changed. If a speed limit was set by the 85th percentile, they'd be in the 15% that would exceed it. They already judge themselves to be better than the herd who are obeying the limit. The commenter PetrolHead guy (or whatever he calls himself) should be read like he's a sociopath.

    Posted 13 years ago #
  24. Dave
    Member

    Great explanation. So, in truth, setting the speed limit to the 85th percentile does make sense, provided the road is modified so that the 85th percentile drive at the desired limit...

    It makes speed bumps make a lot of sense, then. As they reduce 85th percentile speed and are placed in areas where the desired limit is lower than 30mph...

    Posted 13 years ago #
  25. Tis a brilliant explanation... And one which I'd like to use, with your permission Mr Insto....

    Posted 13 years ago #
  26. Instography
    Member

    Cheers.

    @anth - sure, of course.

    Posted 13 years ago #

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