I wanted to doubt the exit poll, but after the first 3 seats I bow down to its brilliance.
CityCyclingEdinburgh Forum » Debate!
GE2019 (and aftermath) prediction thread
(116 posts)-
Posted 4 years ago #
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Bernard Ponsoby taking apart Tory guests on the STV coverage.
Apparently you can only win the election in Scotland with more than 50% of the vote even if you have more than 40 seats.
Meanwhile you can win a UK election with a lot less.First Scottish result soon.
https://twitter.com/LouiseScottSTV/status/1205290434190348288?s=19Posted 4 years ago # -
Helpfully I was already feeling nauseated due to germs so it's hard to tell how much is actually election sickness.
I'm scared for the future.
More sanity in Scotland not much comfort in the face of uber austerity and a hard Brexit. Might eventually turn out well for a united Ireland mind.
Posted 4 years ago # -
Ruthergen SNP gain - 23000 with 5000 majority. 66% turn out so voters here are motivated. The blue side got 'stopping Indy2' up and central and people making their views known.
Oddly we have a good STV Scottish Election night programme but you get the idea that some MPs would rather retreat into us being just another region of he UK rather than a founder member.
Neil Finlay is blaming the SNP for denting the Labour vote. If Scotland voted 59 Labour MPs in Scotland that cannot overturn the democratic will of the English people backed by their mainly right wing media.Posted 4 years ago # -
Neck and neck with the Michael Foot election
Posted 4 years ago # -
Rule 2... Rule 2 rule 2
Posted 4 years ago # -
All UK of GB&NI citizens will be deprived of their European citizenship at the end of next month and EU citizens will lose their residency and work rights at the same time. Those of us who have loved ones from the EU will have to decide between allowing them to fall into the hands of a hard-right anti-immigrant Home Office or leaving our own country and taking our chances in theirs.
As things stand Northern Ireland will be placed behind a customs border at the same time and the Anglo-Irish war that started in 1169 will be reignited for its next phase. Whatever apparatus of spies and thugs the British use in Northern Ireland this time will inevitably also be deployed in Scotland. It will be used to suppress the movement for Scottish self-government on the grounds of national security in a time of war.
My one remaining glimmer of hope is that the Conservative party realises the game's up for their Union and instead lets Ireland and Scotland go their own ways to concentrate on domestic repression in England and Wales. Some glimmer, eh?
Posted 4 years ago # -
@iwrats - the Tories said they would take no notice of votes cast in Scotland - other than those that harmonize with their view.
From comments on National.
- "Put in the context of Westminster the SNP winning 48 out 59 seats in Scotland is the equivalent of one party winning 529 out of the 650 seats in parliament."
Posted 4 years ago # -
Well I got some things right.
But having spectacularly failed to anticipate the actuality of a massive Tory majority, being right on the small stuff is really irrelevant.
Boris listed a whole load of places in his ‘one nation’ victory speech - none were in Scotland.
Scotland is different in many ways.
Far from clear how much Brexit (which ever variety actually happens) will affect/disadvantage Scotland.
People wanting ‘better’ on cycling/transport/environment/wellbeing etc. will need to look at Holyrood more than Westminster.
PoP is more important than ever.
Posted 4 years ago # -
I feel ashamed, as a country, and locally. Just ashamed.
Posted 4 years ago # -
<rule 2>
At least we know what is going to happen next.
Question - I assume Scotland needs the permission of the Westminster parliament to hold another independence referendum?Posted 4 years ago # -
I am actually genuinely scared for the nation now. It might sound like stereotyping but I worry for an inexorable slide back to the days of gangs with shaved heads, Union Jack vests and powerfully built dogs. Exercise of that level of gratuitous intolerance has just been given approval by the highest in the land.
I predict it will not be long before panic buying sets in, too.
Posted 4 years ago # -
@IWRATS
Not just EU citizens but anyone who is 'foreign' will fast lose their rights.
A friend of mine and his Canadian wife are currently fighting her extradition. She's lived and worked here for years but got a lovely letter from the Home Office out of the blue to advise her that she had better leave ASAP. Her crime: she was previously wrongly advised (by said Home Office).
She can apply to come back to live in her own home but only after she applies and waits up to 6 months to find out if permission is granted.
Feeling worried for all my non-UK born friends and family today.
Posted 4 years ago # -
@fimm
That point is debatable. Referendums are not reserved to Westminster under any of the three Scotland Acts, but constitutional matters are reserved under the 1998 Act.
There is a referendums bill going through the Scottish parliament right now. If that parliament is allowed to continue sitting then the bill will eventually be challenged in the Supreme Court (if it is allowed to continue sitting) and the question will be settled there.
If Scotland cannot hold referendums on its own governance then things will get ugly quickly.
Posted 4 years ago # -
The UK electoral system behaves in a weird way. The Conservative vote since 2017 is pretty much unchanged. Yet somehow they now have a thumping majority. The LDs showed the largest % increase in vote but ended up with one less seat. The media actively push a two party system (in England).
I much prefer the Scottish system. As a mathematician, it make more sense.Posted 4 years ago # -
IWRATS - I don't think there is any question over the competence of the Scottish Parliament to consider the Referendums (Scotland) Bill. It only establishes a generic set of administrative rules to be followed in any referendum in Scotland. It doesn't allow any specific referendum to be held. Its main purpose is to placate some of the more vociferous nationalists, by making it like the Scottish Government is moving towards Indyref2.
Posted 4 years ago # -
Well, the fascists got in. We now have a "People's Government" apparently.
Majoritarian authoritarianism enabled by just over 1% more people voting for it compared to 2017, and a split in the opposition vote, with Labour losing share to Lib Dems and Faragists in key marginals.
Trump has tweeted that he's looking forward to doing a "very lucrative" trade deal with Brexitania. It will certainly be lucrative for BUPA et al. I hope you're all looking into health insurance options for the future, as you're going to need them. Even then, you might need to sell your house and declare bankruptcy over unpaid medical bills in your dotage, as thousands of USAnians do every year.
Scottish independence? Can you see Sturgeon, Blackford, Swinney and Cherry going to prison for sedition/treason after organising an illegal referendum or UDI? Me neither.
Norn Iron faces a de facto unified Ireland with a border in the Irish Sea. What will the hardline unionists do in response? Not just in Ulster but also in the west of Scotland?
What about EU nationals living in the UK? What will happen to partners, children, relatives, colleagues, neighbours in the People's Brexitania?
Very dark times ahead. Stay safe. And keep looking over your shoulder: once Brexit is "done" they're coming for Scotland next.
Posted 4 years ago # -
I've been avoiding most of this morning. Interesting though that both Tory and SNP won with 45% of the vote.
People arguing 45% is not a mandate for a Tory Brexit.
Many of the same people arguing 45% is a mandate for indyref2.
Posted 4 years ago # -
The Tories asked for people to lend them their vote to 'say no to IndyRef2'.
It was their one key policy here.
The last time they had a majority in Scotland was the year before I was born.
If 'Get Brexit Done®' was a normal product then BJ and his spin team would have to register a fail in the Scottish Market as they lost 'market share' by 7 seats.
If the customer doesn't like what you're selling you listen and adjust, but of course the Tories don't really understand business so they'll just keep on making the same mistakes.
In a normal world you would then adjust the product and try to meet the demands of the market.
Meanwhile the market leader increased by 12 seats."Many of the same people arguing 45% is a mandate for indyref2." True(ish)... they are asking for the right to hold a referendum so we can sort out our governance and expressed desire to stay in EU. If Labour had won on 45% of the vote Jeremy Corbyn was planning to put his EU proposals back to the British people. If Jo Swinson had won on 45% of vote she planned to Revoke Article 50! :-) FPTP system is not a great way to resolve things in a fractured UK.
BJ just thinks the Scots are best treated like a weak minority interest group and should be ignored - maybe even punished. The Nine newscast from the new BBC Scotland channel is one way of doing that (!)
Lastly in BJ's one nation state where Scotland is 'not a nation but a region / reservation / homeland', then you're right to speak moves way down the line as shown below. A little more right than the Greens that still have only one MP in the UK.
- Conservatives took 43.5% of the total UK vote share (only 25% in Scotland vs 47% in England)
Labour taking 32.4% of the UK vote share
Liberal Democrats had 11% of UK votes
SNP took 3.9% of UK votes (45% in Scotland)
Greens took 2.7% of UK votes
Brexit Party took 2% of UK votesPosted 4 years ago # -
@baldcyclist Both are bad metrics, because they're wound up in a load of other policies. An example: I didn't vote SNP not because I don't want independence (in the context of another English elected Tory majority), but because Labour's climate and cycling policy was much stronger (comments like yours are now making me regret my decision though).
However, I don't think it's fair to compare a mandate for an action (hard brexit) vs a mandate for a referendum to get a mandate for an action (indyref). The threshold is surely much, much lower for the latter.
Posted 4 years ago # -
(comments like yours are now making me regret my decision though)
I wasn't offering any opinion, just stating the observation.
Posted 4 years ago # -
The threshold is surely much, much lower for the latter.
Absolutely. The 2014 referendum was triggered by 45.4% of the constituency vote in the 2011 Scottish general election. I doubt many voters knew the referendum was a manifesto commitment. I didn't.
There is no status quo on offer now, just two leaps. One is into the dark, alone and pushed from behind by people with no regard for us. The other is our choice and into the half-light with friends watching.
Posted 4 years ago # -
And so it begins. Don't say I didn't warn you.
Get saving for your health insurance, folks. Brexitania here we come.---
Dr. Mike @EmergMedDrDamian Green Tory MP saying on @lbc that we all need to start paying towards an insurance type system to pay for our care.
And there it is.
That is what we are going to get.
Posted 4 years ago # -
Well here's Carlton Reid, who is eminently not a Tory, saying that he expects Johnson to spend massively on cycle infrastructure. I thought only £350 million had been promised in the manifesto, which is peanuts.
Johnson is of course cycle friendly, as is Andrew Gilligan, his transport adviser.
"Gilligan has been quiet since being appointed in July, and it’s a reasonably safe bet that he has been working on radical transport plans, including improving cycling and walking conditions. That was his remit when Johnson hired him for London, and it would be a waste of his talents, vision and singlemindedness if Gilligan wasn’t unleashed at some point, probably in Spring 2020."..
"Johnson is a populist prime minister, eager to quell any early dissatisfaction with crowd-pleasing offerings of bread and circuses. (Or, as Johnson, who delights in speaking Latin, might put it, “panem et circenses.”)"
(I can't see how this would be particularly popular among the car loving public).
https://www.forbes.com/sites/carltonreid/2019/12/13/bicycling-boosts-plus-other-bread-and-circuses-likely-from-boris-johnson/#39fe545634afPosted 4 years ago # -
Posted 4 years ago #
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You'd have to be bonkers to put money on predicting what the English nationalist regime will do but I'm reasonably confident they'll be mired in their Brexit thing for a decade at least, longer if they really do put Northern Ireland behind a customs border.
The Conservative party is a commercial operation that exists principally to represent the interests of its clients which can be found by sorting the list of UK political donations in descending order. At least the donors' UK front-people can be found this way.
The biggest donor in the last reporting period is a builder, land speculator and airline operator. The green revolution may be delayed.
Posted 4 years ago # -
SNP MP on QT last night saying Tory majority wins them right to do Brexit, but equally SNP majority wins right for indyref.
Boris doesn't want to be the last PM of UK, might send buckets of money to Scotland to try and prevent it.
ERG not important now, so Boris will "try" to be the one nation Tory he sells himself as. Forthcoming cabinet reshuffle will maybe answer some questions here.
I think there may be merit in those comments (QT and Politics Scotland), but I can't see BJ having the skill to pull either off.
He may not be the last PM of the UK, but he's very likely to be the architect of it...
Only time will tell. Interesting times ahead.
Posted 4 years ago # -
SNP MP was talking rubbish. Johnson will tell them to take a hike. They had their referendum back in 2014. People who lent their vote to "Stop Brexit, Stop Johnson" as the SNP campaign had it, are fairly ticked off that this is now yet another "mandate," just as those of us who voted Remain in the EU referendum are ticked off that Sturgeon constructed us as a "mandate". FPTP won them the seats but the split remains about the same - 46% pro indy parties, 54% against. This is just another game of Sturgeon's.
Interesting times - yes March when a certain trial takes place is going to be interesting.
@IWRATS - As well as lining his own pockets and his chums', Johnson is interested in infrastructure, and politicians to love big legacies of bridges etc. So I don't think it's pure money. But of course Brexit is going to take up a lot of time and political energy.
An historical note. Back in 2013, when Johnson was Mayor of London, the Edinburgh Council's commitment to raising the cycling budget by 1% per year was quoted in his bid to get his own cycling budget passed at the London Assembly.
Posted 4 years ago # -
“I can't see BJ having the skill to pull either off.”
Not least because he’s going to find lots of new/extra/specific demands from his new Friends in the North (and Midlands etc.)
“of course Brexit is going to take up a lot of time and political energy.”
Indeed - and civil servant time.
For ‘us’ (not there is ‘single view’’) with an interest in cycling, active travel and ‘environment’, the next things to hope will make a difference are COP26 and PoP.
Posted 4 years ago # -
Are you ready for a decade of Johnson in power? Ruling by royal prerogative, a PM "who should be free of the network of obligation which binds everyone else.”
Posted 4 years ago #
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