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GE2019 (and aftermath) prediction thread

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  1. chdot
    Admin

    A sleepless night in prospect for many.

    And some surprises while most people are asleep(?)

    This is (part of) what I wrote on the other thread over a month ago -

    “There are some certainties -

    a lot of seats will return the same party as now

    there’ll be a lot of new MPs

    there’ll be surprises

    Once again it’s for the Tories to lose - as did TMay, against expectations.”

    So

    The unknown unknowns are still in play.

    My current view is that the Conservative Party won’t get an effective majority.

    IF they don’t get a sizeable majority over Labour, the leadership could be in doubt or at least I expect there will be Tory MPs unwilling to go along with their (alleged) promise to back whichever version of Brexit MrJ tries to push through Parliament.

    Other predictions -

    Ian Murray will be an MP.

    An ‘independent’ will win Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath

    1 or 2 cabinet ministers will lose seats.

    Ruth D won’t need to go swimming.

    Posted 4 years ago #

  2. gembo
    Member

    will be bad from down south as all these kids will like mean to get down to the thing but just get distracted

    Posted 4 years ago #

  3. paddyirish
    Member

    I hope I'm wrong, but I think the Tories will get an overall majority as too few people will vote tactically. It is a shocking choice between the most cavalier, lying and self serving government and the most useless opposition.

    Reminds me of this skit from Australia (NSFW -a few Rule 2 violations).

    [+] Embed the video | Video DownloadGet the Flash Videos

    .

    Sadly we don't have PR for Westminster.

    And this party political broadcast (NSFW -a few Rule 2 violations)

    [+] Embed the video | Video DownloadGet the Flash Videos

    Posted 4 years ago #

  4. Baldcyclist
    Member

    "An ‘independent’ will win Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath"

    I so hope not, what a dark day that would be for the seat. Doesn't help that he's still listed as an SNP candidate on the ballot. Total mess.

    Apparantly if he does win Fife Council will also announce him as the SNP candidate because the SNP have suspended, and not formally sacked him.

    I scowelled at his canvasers this morning.

    Also Kirkcaldy MSP telling people in Kirkcaldy to "Vote SNP" when they can't, deceitful.

    Posted 4 years ago #

  5. gembo
    Member

    Vote Useless, Vote Often stop Boris

    Posted 4 years ago #

  6. I were right about that saddle
    Member

    Two possible outcomes:

    1) The result is received in a spirit of true Great Britain and Northern Irish unity. The electoral system is seen as fair, the policies proposed clear and party funding equitable and transparent. Our national institutions are revived and renewed in a spirit of optimism. Nightingales sing Blake's Jerusalem in Berkeley Square.

    2) A sullen and riven nation wakes to find that it has been swindled. England is told that London can bankroll it no longer. London citizenship is established for UHNW individuals. It comes with EU citizenship. Northern Ireland is placed behind a customs border. Unionists burn the port infrastructure in Belfast down. Republicans agitate for Irish unity. Things kick off. Because sectarianism has been stoked in Scotland for so long the trouble spreads to Glasgow. State of emergency declared, Scottish parliament suspended. It is decided to renovate the building during the suspension and a workman overturns eight cans of petrol by mistake while stripping paint with a blowlamp. The building is lost. Ruth Davidson appointed Lord Protector of Scotland for the duration of the Troubles. A luxury hotel owned by a demented despot is approved for the site. Half of us have no choice but to become labourers on the building site.

    Posted 4 years ago #

  7. chdot
    Admin

    “ Also Kirkcaldy MSP telling people in Kirkcaldy to "Vote SNP" when they can't, deceitful.”

    Suspect most people who want to vote SNP will - and/or think they are.

    Don’t suppose SNP is looking forward to (/actually) doing anything about this sort of thing -

    Posted 4 years ago #

  8. I were right about that saddle
    Member

    It's possible that Kircaldy's SNP members didn't appreciate their head office's decision to suspend the candidate they selected.

    Posted 4 years ago #

  9. chdot
    Admin

    Clearly there are SNP members who don’t agree -

    https://www.fifetoday.co.uk/news/politics/senior-fife-snp-figure-backs-axed-kirkcaldy-candidate-neale-hanvey-1-5056065

    However, the SNP is ‘well known’ for being more disciplined than some other parties.

    Posted 4 years ago #

  10. SRD
    Moderator

    @iwrats I am disappointed in your semi-colon. as our superstar non-fiction author, I expected better.

    yours sincerely,

    the resident pedant

    Posted 4 years ago #

  11. I were right about that saddle
    Member

    @SRD

    A timely intervention inside the edit window. I have either clawed back a shred of dignity or lost my last one.

    Posted 4 years ago #

  12. chdot
    Admin

    Luckily ‘previous edits’ don’t get saved (I think).

    Posted 4 years ago #

  13. I were right about that saddle
    Member

    The year was ending, and the land lay still.
    Despite our countdown, we were loath to go,
    kept padding along the ridge, the broad glow
    of the city beneath us, and the hill
    swirling with a little mist. Stars were right,
    plans, power; only now this unforeseen
    reluctance, like a slate we could not clean
    of characters, yet could not read, or write
    our answers on, or smash, or take with us.
    Not a hedgehog stirred. We sighed, climbed in, locked.
    If it was love we felt, would it not keep,
    and travel where we travelled? Without fuss
    we lifted off, but as we checked and talked
    a far horn grew to break that people's sleep.

    The Summons, Edwin Morgan

    Posted 4 years ago #

  14. chdot
    Admin

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/12/12/john-curtice-polls-predictions-election/

    (Behind a paywall of course)

    Posted 4 years ago #

  15. chdot
    Admin

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/12/from-a-thumping-tory-win-to-a-corbyn-coalition-four-election-scenarios

    Other scenarios available...

    Posted 4 years ago #

  16. chdot
    Admin

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/12/britain-votes-in-high-stakes-election-result-remains-unpredictable

    Posted 4 years ago #

  17. CycleAlex
    Member

    WELL THEN.

    Posted 4 years ago #

  18. chdot
    Admin

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/dec/12/general-election-2019-uk-live-labour-tories-corbyn-boris-johnson-results-exit-poll?page=with:block-5df2b8e28f08895152f9c3f4#block-5df2b8e28f08895152f9c3f4

    Posted 4 years ago #

  19. gembo
    Member

    Sure looks bad

    Posted 4 years ago #

  20. LaidBack
    Member

    My prediction is that the higher the SNP go in Scotland, the higher the Torids will go in rUK.
    Both parties feedback from each other. The Brexitory Party is essentially a proxy English National Party although talk about preserving the union. They have though broken that with NI special status proposal?
    STV exit poll info dramatic and being questioned.

    Posted 4 years ago #

  21. jdanielp
    Member

    Rule 2.

    Posted 4 years ago #

  22. crowriver
    Member

    If the exit poll is correct, then England has a lot more racists and xenophobes living there than many people previously suspected.

    Posted 4 years ago #

  23. 14Westfield
    Member

    While twitter is not Britain, is Britain an exit poll?

    Posted 4 years ago #

  24. LaidBack
    Member

    I made mistake of settling Euro debt for suppliers earlier in week. Pound is now soaring higher as the vote goes blue. I was hoping for a progressive alliance to sort out governance in our respective parts of the islands.
    Apparently no Scottish Labour vote has ever cemented a UK Labour victory. The Scottish Labour tail can never wag the English Labour dog?

    Posted 4 years ago #

  25. I were right about that saddle
    Member

    Posted 4 years ago #

  26. chdot
    Admin

    Lab held 2, lost Blyth

    Posted 4 years ago #

  27. I were right about that saddle
    Member

    When English mining communities vote for those who wish them dead the whole thing is over. They've gone mad and it's time for them to be quarantined.

    Posted 4 years ago #

  28. chdot
    Admin

    John Curtice on BBC saying ‘least confident about accuracy of SNP prediction in exit poll’.

    Posted 4 years ago #

  29. chdot
    Admin

    https://twitter.com/mrdavidbol/status/1205260751457402881

    Posted 4 years ago #

  30. chdot
    Admin

    https://twitter.com/ianmurraymp/status/1205271817839095810

    Posted 4 years ago #

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