Compared to the impact brexit is going to have on us the outcome of the US elections is largely by the by. Trumps handlers have him pretty well under control.
CityCyclingEdinburgh Forum » Debate!
Do we need an American elections thread?
(152 posts)-
Posted 3 years ago #
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“Compared to the impact brexit is going to have on us the outcome of the US elections is largely by the by.”
That partly depends on who wins
“Trumps handlers have him pretty well under control.”
I wish to believe this, but there are plenty of people who used to be involved in the administration who thought they could constrain him or dilute the consequences of his diktats.
IF it’s clear to most reasonable people (who they?) that Biden has the most EC votes then Trump should heed the advice to concede.
If not, the GOP needs to reclaim itself and take whatever measures necessary.
Failing all that, the lawyers will get richer.
Posted 3 years ago # -
I'm not even going to pretend to understand the American political system however I'm confused that @chdot 's screen shot shows 238 to 213 @ c. 08:30 but the BBC are currently @ 15:50 only reporting 224 to 213.... have some votes been rescinded / appealed?
Posted 3 years ago # -
@twinspark nope it depends on who they source it from. Guardian source from Associated Press. BBC from someone else. Seems networks have a game of "calling" the result before all votes are counted and compete with each other to be first without being wrong...
Posted 3 years ago # -
The Electoral College bit is more straight forward. You win the state by 1 vote you take all the state’s seats. Trump o wins mostly in small idiotic states with small number of seats. Bidet in fewer bigger states With bigger number of seats.
So same as here you can have most votes Overall but not win.
Other stuff - Caucuses with the other side allowed to vote for your people? Senate, House of reps etc. bit different.
Posted 3 years ago # -
Posted 3 years ago # -
“
International observers say US elections 'tarnished' by Trump and uncertainty
Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe highlights systemic flaws and president’s bid to ‘undermine public trust’
“
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/nov/04/international-observers-us-election-trump-trust
Posted 3 years ago # -
This is from a pal of mine (actually a historian). He called Michigan and Pennsylvania back when it appeared that Trmp was miles ahead, based on his county's results and uncounted ballots in western michigan.
Good summary of where we're at:
1) Biden's easiest path is Pennsylvania. He is chipping away at Trump not only in big cities but also by improving upon Clinton's numbers in most rural counties (ie getting 35% instead of 30%). However, it is often hard to calculate how many votes are left. They go from uncounted to counted when they are run through the machine, but the results are released in batches. This means thousands of votes can disappear from the uncounted lists without necessarily changing the results immediately. Based on his performance in completed counties, Biden is strongly favored to win here, but if there aren’t a lot of ballots left in Philadelphia it could take awhile for the counting to finish. Networks may also be reluctant to call this race until Biden is significantly ahead.
2) Biden's next easiest possible win is Nevada. They have been counting all night and results will be released around noon today. Biden is favored since they are from heavily Dem Clark County (Las Vegas), but these are mail-in ballots from just before election day which have tended to skew a little towards Trump. Biden’s lead is narrow (7,000 votes) enough that a call isn’t possible even though Biden should be fine. However, Nevada isn’t enough on its own, which means Biden also needs to win…
3) Arizona. It’s a mess there. Arizona was called on election night by Fox News and AP after Biden’s strong showing in early mail-in ballots, but then information emerged that turnout was stronger than expected, and Biden’s lead could be overturned. Subsequent results have tended to confirm this, with Trump doing very well with in-person voters and ballots mailed close to election day. The main problem for Trump is that most uncounted ballots were mailed (better for Dems than in-person) and in Maricopa County (essentially Phoenix, and bluer than Arizona as a whole). Expect it to get closer, but Biden is still probably favored to win here. It will be interesting to see if AP and Fox News stand by their call. If they retract this call, it’s a sign things are not looking good for Biden.
4) Or Georgia. They are still counting and the ballots left are heavily pro-Biden from Metro Atlanta. The problem is no one seems to know how many are left. The Secretary of State (who oversees elections) says there are roughly 50-60,000 uncounted ballots left as of this morning, with Trump leading by 18,000. Thousands of uncounted ballots are in adjudication, probably because of technical issues with reading the results. Results should be posted at noon. If Biden wins Georgia, it will be by a tiny margin, and will inevitably go to a recount, but Georgia and Nevada is a path for Biden if something goes catastrophically wrong in PA or AZ.
5) Trump could always concede… lol yeah not a chance of that, so the counting will just continue to grind on as we all wait for results!
Posted 3 years ago # -
a lot of micro-analysis going on regarding still uncounted votes in georgia. but increasingly looking like not quite enough for Biden to over turn Trump's lead. eg https://twitter.com/marcusowens/status/1324366184909885445?s=20
Posted 3 years ago # -
@SRD, Biden now 917 votes ahead in Georgia
Posted 3 years ago # -
“
So far, the legal battle is not going well. The Trump campaign lost two suits on Thursday in Michigan and Georgia. “They all seem to have no merit whatsoever,” said Joshua Douglas, a law professor at the University of Kentucky who focuses on elections. “I think the goal is to sow discord and distrust and undermine the people and the integrity of the election. I think giving them additional air time just plays into that theory.”
“
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/nov/06/donald-trump-us-election-lawsuits
Posted 3 years ago # -
if you're not all saturated with coverage, this website is good. turn on 'live updates' for notifications
https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html
Posted 3 years ago # -
Why is the electoral college system still in use? (Shades of the Old Sarum parliamentary seat).
Why hasn’t the Republican Party done more to repudiate Trump?
Why do the Democrats think a 78yo President is a) a good idea, b) their best candidate?
@chdot
The electoral college system is still in use because by and large it gives a pretty consistent correspondence with the popular vote. It only breaks down in very tight contests, and even then only 4 times over the last 244 years. In other words, it's not bad enough to go through the onerous process of amending the constitution. There are other political reasons, such as a candidate have to build a broader political base than just appealing to the populous sections of the country. It's a states-rights thing.As for Trump and the Republican party, a lot of Republicans have repudiated Trump, cf. the Lincoln Project. But he is a dynamic candidate and a vote-getter. But I agree, with the Donald the Republican party has sold its birthright for a mess of pottage.
Bernie Sanders is 79, Trump himself is 74. Why is America fixated on these old white men? I think in the case of Biden, he is basically the last candidate standing. He didn't mess up badly enough. He wasn't as left as Sanders, which just goes to show the absolute nonsense the accusations of socialism flung towards the Democratic party. Joe Biden is about as middle of the road as they come. Which is possibly his appeal as a candidate. He's not extreme, he is pretty calm natured, which is no bad thing right now. And he was savvy enough to pick a young dynamic running mate, so Democrats can rest assured the party and country is in good hands if he becomes incapacitated in office. Also, as Obama's Veep, he is sort of a known quantity.
Posted 3 years ago # -
@DecisiondeskHQ has called it for Biden
Posted 3 years ago # -
“It's a states-rights thing“
Ah, that makes sense.
“the Republican party has sold its birthright for a mess of pottage”
Too true.
“Also, as Obama's Veep, he is sort of a known quantity”
Yes but - perhaps within the ‘political system’, less so the voters?
“he is pretty calm natured, which is no bad thing right now“
Let’s hope so!
Thanks for your response pm.
Posted 3 years ago # -
Part of me thinks the world should take a leaf out of Manchester's book and just put a big 7 foot steel fence up round the whole continent. We could have got the Mexicans to pay for it too, if we had been a bit more prescient.
Posted 3 years ago # -
All good then(?)
Posted 3 years ago # -
“just put a big 7 foot steel fence up“
That one didn’t last long.
“could have got the Mexicans to pay for it“
They are too busy paying the US...
If only the UK was an island, like Taiwan, NZ, Aus etc, and actually closed its borders/ENFORCE quarantine.
Posted 3 years ago # -
Not a UK fence, I was proposing to fence off the US :)
Posted 3 years ago # -
Ah ok
Was thinking of Covid measures (that’s notionally what the Manchester one was for).
Posted 3 years ago # -
I would add to paulmilne's comments that Biden has also carefully and cautiously positioned himself as a 'transitional' leader. he is not committed to running for a second term, and seems open to Harris or another younger, more diverse candidate taking over from him. <= points not mine, but from a webinar held at UoE this morning. live tweets here: https://twitter.com/afr_pol/status/1324654012529025025?s=20
Posted 3 years ago # -
“seems open to Harris or another younger, more diverse candidate taking over from him“
If he stood down, presumably VP would automatically take over and not be subject an election process until 2024?
Posted 3 years ago # -
I think she meant in 2024, not before that. take over as candidate in the next election.
Posted 3 years ago # -
Ok
Somehow I’m not convinced he’ll (want to) last 4 years.
Posted 3 years ago # -
It's looking like Biden will be No.46. President "Not that other guy" basically.
This is probably a good thing for US citizens, who will have a more reasonable, less unpredictable leader.
Apart from stuff like the Paris climate agreement, nuclear arms control, and various other international treaties which Biden will presumably seek to uphold, I'm not altogether convinced his presidency will be a good thing for the rest of the world.
If you look back at Biden's foreign policy record, he essentially represents Neoliberal Business As Usual. Perhaps not quite as hawkish an interventionist as a President Hilary Clinton might have been, but still within the realm of America as Global Policeman. Biden co-sponsored the bill authorising the bombing of Yugoslavia in 1999, was very enthusiastic about invading Afghanistan in 2001, and he was active in supporting the invasion of Iraq in 2003, even proposing the partition of the country three years later (though subsequently he appears to have viewed the invasion as a "mistake", presumably after it was clear the occupation had become a disaster).
The UK and the EU will probably fare reasonably well in relation to a Biden presidency, but other areas of the world, such as the Middle East or Central America may be more wary about the new US foreign policy agenda.
Posted 3 years ago # -
@crowriver I demonstrated against much of that foreign policy, but having an American regime that supports the ‘rules based international system” makes it less easy for our lot to also lose their way.
(Yes I know they don’t always uphold it, but a refusal to even acknowledge it leads to much worse outcomes).
Posted 3 years ago # -
its all about harris really, innit
biden's the front man, he'll take afternoon naps
Posted 3 years ago # -
@bax, I remember folk saying similar about Trump and Pence. Those platitudes have not aged well...
As for Harris, strong on equalities and citizens' rights. An unknown quantity on foreign policy, though she did take a key role in the inquiry into supposed Russian interference in the 2016 election. So perhaps Harris is merely an orthodox Democrat when it comes to matters beyond the US?
To get a real flavour of what Biden's foreign policy will look like, maybe we need to scrutinise his close advisers and associates in that area, and the influence of the so-called "Blob" of foreign policy establishment figures who were prominent in the Obama administration, where Biden was of course Vice-President.
My instinct is that Biden will seek to restore the US to a world leadership role of "virtuous hegemon". A stance that China, Russia, and other states may not be very comfortable with...
Posted 3 years ago #
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