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Ed Gareth Poole @EdGarethPoole
Pretty astonishing - SNP membership growing by 250 *per hour*, new applications now at 9,063 since the #indyref
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Labour party in Scotland, your days are numbered I suspect.
CityCyclingEdinburgh Forum » Debate!
And now? (Not the White Paper thread)
(693 posts)-
Posted 9 years ago #
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Do you think it would have made a difference in referendum if all these people had joined SNP before last Thursday?
IMO they ran a well organised campaign and got out their maximum vote. A vote in parliamentary elections which would have secured their majority
Labour and SNP run Edinburgh in a coalition. Any chance this can be replicated elsewhere?
Posted 9 years ago # -
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@LDvotersforIndy: Lib Dem membership UK wide sits at 44,000....... SNP membership is 30,000+ makes you think......
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Posted 9 years ago # -
The way things have panned out in the last 3 days, the SNP will distance itself from Labour because it is now a poisoned brand in Scotland.
There would have been polarisation if there was a yes vote, but there will now be just as much polarisation in Scotland with the manoeuvring going on in England.
Scotland Labour are in catch 22: they had to back Worse-Apart because New-New Labour(NNL) told them to. Now they need power to bring in Devo-max, but NNL are going to get a kicking at the general election.
There will be a protest vote in England, Wales & Scotland at the general election but ultimately UKIP & the Tories will have power for another 4-5 years.
They will sit on the pressure cooker and fudge it like they & Labour have done for the last 10 years - no proportional representation, no Lords reform, token powers devolved, tough on immigration, an in-out vote on the EU. More polarisation.
100 years since labour came to the fore, it could be long-term shrinkage for them & the Lib-Dems.Posted 9 years ago # -
Labour would be wrong to think they have won anything that is for sure. However Edinburgh went 61:39, same number of Nos in Edinburgh as Yes in Glasgow.
Excepting Dundee there is a marked east west split.
Maybe it is too soon for talk of coalitions. maybe some people will continue to ignore what a 55:45 vote in a two horse race means? Maybe the SNP don't need coalition given the surge in membership being reported. Who knows?
Posted 9 years ago # -
Well if future politics in Scotland is going to be on pro or anti indy lines, that sounds pretty awful. I'm a No, and I vote Green or Labour. I can't now vote Green as they support indy. So is it all going to be tactical voting for or against indy from now on? I wouldn't call that constructive politcs at all. I think a large wodge of Noes so hated that referendum they'd do anything not to repeat it.
Posted 9 years ago # -
One of the many arguments put forward during the debate was the one about Scotland consistently voting for a party they didn't get (in this instance labour). Now that Scotland has voted No by a fairly wide margin I would encourage all parties interested in democracy to work together rather than retreat to bunkers. But perhaps I am being too premature in seeking unity.
Posted 9 years ago # -
"Well if future politics in Scotland is going to be on pro or anti indy lines, that sounds pretty awful."
It won't be (as such).
There are things that people can agree (and disagree) about across parties - social and economic etc.
There are people who 'want Independence' - for various reasons - and presumably want something to happen afterwards!
There are also many people who just want DevoSomethingElse (and would have voted for the 'third option' if it had been on the ballot paper).
There are people (overlapping with above) who don't believe that however they want things to be run, it's possible under the present UK/Westminster system.
One outcome of the indyref process is that people in other parts of the UK now realise that (some degree of) change is desirable/possible.
Maybe enough will now change for the desire/need for Independence to dissipate.
"So is it all going to be tactical voting for or against indy from now on?"
Tactical voting has been increasing in recent years. I think most people realise that this is a perfectly reasonable part of democracy.
I hope people will vote after looking at general policies - not just the Yes/No one.
If things you like only seem possible with Independence is that still a problem?
I suppose that depends whether people are against Indy for (perfectly reasonable) ideological reasons, or because they don't believe it's economically possible.
Posted 9 years ago # -
Tactical voting is the only weapon the electorate have nowadays. The political elite & the media are in cahoots to keep the two main parties swapping power, so part of the electorate has taken it on board that they confound their ambitions. Forcing coalition with the supine Lib Dems hasn't reined in the tories, the next attempt at this (in the opposite direction) will be UKIP in the May plebiscite.
Posted 9 years ago # -
"the next attempt at this (in the opposite direction) will be UKIP in the May plebiscite"
Yes, at least there are more choices in Scotland!
As it's FPTP I don't expect there will be many UKIP MPs and (almost certainly) none in Scotland. BUT could hold balance of power. Unless there were at least 20 I wouldn't expect a formal coalition with the Tories.
If you normally vote Tory (in a Tory seat) and decide to vote UKIP, would you not/want a coalition with Tories??
(Ditto for Lab/UKIP!!)
Too early to speculate on the SNP/Lab split in Scotland.
Can 'the other No party' beat the only Tory?
Will the LDs completely disappear (apart from Orkney and Shetland)?
There can really only be a Green if there is some sort of electoral pact.
Anyone (are the LDs?) offering PR for Westminster elections?
Posted 9 years ago # -
Presume the banner on the left is a comment on #indyref
Good turnout at today's #peoplesclimatemarch Edinburgh.
'Politics' continues...
Now that #indyref is over, maybe Climate Change will get a look in.
More important than which politicians control what.
Trouble is that it's the politicians that are (probably) more the problem than the solution.
Posted 9 years ago # -
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@IPPR: We need 'to liberate people from central power' inc from Holyrood says @JohannLamont at post #indyref fringe #Lab14 @IPPR fringe"
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@roballen30: Public think Westminster remote, want change but don't think politicians can deliver. @LucyMPowell sums up 3 lessons from #indyref #Lab14
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@IPPR: "It's so good this devolution stuff I want to see it applied to rest of UK" says @grahamallenmp @IPPR #indyref fringe #Lab14
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Posted 9 years ago # -
Treating Scotland as on a par with a region of England really shows how the political elite in Westminster doesnt get it; does Yorkshire have its own legal system, Devon a separate education system and Essex a different established church?
Posted 9 years ago # -
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Peter Murrell
@PeterMurrell
Mega drum roll... @theSNP now has 40,000 members. Big welcome to all 14,358 newbies.----
Posted 9 years ago # -
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Scottish Greens @scotgp
Once again, thank you the THOUSANDS who joined us over the weekend. A mass of volunteeers are in office to process, so please bear with us!----
Posted 9 years ago # -
If you can't work with in the system there is always the unilateral declaration. Should we expect a watchman running through the streets shouting that the Red Coats Are Coming.
Posted 9 years ago # -
It would certainly be interesting if the SNP won the majority of Scottish seats at Westminster. That would provoke a constitutional crisis.
How likely that is under FPTP voting system is tricky to determine. Still, it does show there are alternatives to Scots habitually voting Labour at Westminster elections. 2015 is going to be interesting.
Posted 9 years ago # -
@steveo
The Hanoverian troops are always with us.
http://i3.mirror.co.uk/incoming/article4290892.ece/alternates/s1227b/George-Square.jpg
Posted 9 years ago # -
Steveo, sarcasm was pretty much a tenet of project fear, aka bitter together.
You have to agree though, even putting aside the lies re pensions told to the pensioners (whose overall vote appeared to carry the "no"), that if the three 'leaders' were seen to be adhering to their 'vow', then Salmond would be stuck in his box.
But tthey're not - and so he's not.
Posted 9 years ago # -
You have to agree though, even putting aside the lies re pensions told to the pensioners (whose overall vote appeared to carry the "no"),
Except that if you remove the over 65 vote entirely Yes would still have lost.Posted 9 years ago # -
Steveo, sarcasm was pretty much a tenet of project fear, aka bitter together.
You don't see any irony in this sentence?Posted 9 years ago # -
From the FT:
"The SNP said more than 10,000 people had applied to join the party before its online server was overwhelmed on Sunday afternoon, equivalent to more than a third of the party’s 25,642 membership as of Thursday. A poll for the Scottish Mail on Sunday showed the party on course to win another term in government in Scottish Parliament elections in 2016.
Scotland’s other two pro-independence parties have also benefited. The Scottish Green party, which had around 2,000 members on Thursday, said it had since received around, 2,400 applications to join. The Scottish Socialist party (SSP) was also poised to more than double in size."Also
"A Scottish Labour spokesperson was on Sunday unable to give any details of membership north of the border."
(Unofficial estimates currently around 5,000 members).
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/44179c94-41a1-11e4-b98f-00144feabdc0.html
Posted 9 years ago # -
Steveo, sarcasm was pretty much a tenet of project fear, aka bitter together.
As were promises such as "respecting the sovereign will of the people of Scotland"... In fact I believe Salmond also claimed the same.
Sarcasm existed long before the referendum and I expect it'll survive being stuck in the same box as the No campaign. As will I.
Posted 9 years ago # -
@crowriver
I'd like the chance to see if I could squeeze out a hot salt tear over the annihilation of the North British Labour Party. Doubtless Anas Sarwar would be the last of their elected representatives to fall, so I might be too delirious with laughter to cry.
Posted 9 years ago # -
Surely the membership of political parties just represents the passionate tip of the electoral iceberg (sorry - been writing dry papers today). A change in voting intentions has yet to be established.
Posted 9 years ago # -
"I'd like the chance to see if I could squeeze out a hot salt tear over the annihilation of the North British Labour Party."
I presume someone (GB???) will take it by the scruff of its neck and drag it into 'modern Scotland'.
OR people will defect to form The Real Scottish Labour Party (Jim Sillars may still have a 'claim' on "Scottish Labour Party").
Or both.
Still might not save it.
More pandas than Labour MPs?
Realistically I think there will still be quite a few Labour MPs in Scotland next year - though it's conceivable that the SNP will have more.
I think a 'Yes Alliance' for the Westminster election would be a mistake - but if the No parties mess up on The Vow, anything is possible.
Stand by for Ed's speech.
Posted 9 years ago # -
"Surely the membership of political parties just represents the passionate tip of the electoral iceberg"
Yes, but the recent/current significant increase is not normal.
Something is going on.
I presume some of these new members will be willing to help out at the next election or two, which could make a difference to the outcome(s).
Posted 9 years ago # -
@amir, that's correct up to a certain point.
If my personal experience is anything to go by, I've witnessed friends, colleagues and acquaintances who had an interest in politics, but no party affiliation, join the Greens in recent days. Some of them were already Green voters, others Labour or floating voters.
I did not turn around to any of these folk and suggest they join the party, they have all done it on their own initiative. Much as I did, four years ago. If some of these new members become active in the party then that will have an effect. For example, canvassing, leafleting, campaign donations, assisting with the numerous tasks a party needs to take on when contesting an election.
The "air war" (through broadcast and print media) is one thing: "troops on the ground" another. Of course, established parties have some inbuilt advantages, especially in terms of media coverage, wealthy donors, and so on. However it's not outwith the bounds of possibility that Labour in Scotland could collapse as effectively as the Conservatives did in the 1980s and 1990s.
Posted 9 years ago # -
"Something is going on. "
Er - the referendum?
"I presume some of these new members will be willing to help out at the next election or two, which could make a difference to the outcome(s). "
yes - the larger party membership must be a benefit going into the next election.
Posted 9 years ago # -
I can't think of anywhere better to share a tale from my days as a splittist zealot.
I was canvassing a lady for the third time - I'd moved her from No to very nearly Yes and we were getting on well. It was a nice day and she was leaning on the garden fence. I was sat on a low wall at the foot of a grassy bank. We were discussing the tone of the two campaigns - one dry and fearful, the other passionate and joyful.
Just at that moment we both looked round to see her dog sliding down the grass bank on its bum with its back legs in the air, a wolfish grin and a five inch bright pink erection.
I think I know how she voted.
Posted 9 years ago #
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