CityCyclingEdinburgh Forum » Debate!

Do we need an EU referendum thread? (Brexit thread)

(3978 posts)
  • Started 7 years ago by I were right about that saddle
  • Latest reply from chdot

  1. I were right about that saddle
    Member

    @LaidBack

    Scotland is part of the UK of GB&NI and it appears likely to remain such for the foreseeable. You lie down with dogs you get shot with the crows. Kind of thing.

    Posted 2 years ago #
  2. I were right about that saddle
    Member

  3. chdot
    Admin

    But questions remain. With less than 60 days to go, the government has yet to announce how the UK prosperity fund will work, how it will replace EU funding whether for science or economic development, says the report.

    It also predicts that the Northern Ireland protocol cannot be implement in full on time with the IT systems and infrastructure for new border control posts not ready for 1 January.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/nov/03/uk-will-be-unable-to-deal-with-brexit-alongside-covid-demands-says-thinktanks

    Posted 2 years ago #
  4. I were right about that saddle
    Member

    Also the EU is about to take them to court for breaching their own withdrawal agreement.

    It'll end in tears I tells ya.

    Posted 2 years ago #
  5. steveo
    Member

    I need the ability to hide this thread, it's my only source of brexit information and frankly it depresses me!

    Posted 2 years ago #
  6. chdot
    Admin

    “it's my only source of brexit information and frankly it depresses me!“

    And THIS is just the edited highlights!

    Perhaps you should read the Telegraph/Express for ‘balance’.

    My ‘biggest problem’ is that I can’t decide whether most people won’t notice much in 8 weeks 3 days OR there will be spectacular problems.

    Additionally whether ‘the problems’ will emerge rapidly and be dealt with (or not) OR whether they will emerge gradually/unexpectedly (or both).

    At present, WHEN things go ‘wrong’, Covid will be used as an excuse for things ‘not going according to plan’.

    On a practical day to day level I’m confident that the supermarkets will be strategically planning to maintain their supply chains. They will be more on top of the new paperwork than many industries and there is a LOT of spare air transport capacity.

    So expect some prices to rise and shortages due to (probably) unnecessary panic buying.

    Beyond that, in the short term, job losses will be primarily due to Covid.

    Some people/companies will make a lot of many (as ever) and they will probably get to keep it (as ever).

    House prices should drop significantly, but there are probably enough people involved in ‘the market’ to keep the distortion going.

    Imagine an average house price/income ratio similar to when your parents bought their first house (if they did).

    Posted 2 years ago #
  7. I were right about that saddle
    Member

    @chdot

    I think you're wildly optimistic there. There's going to be a huge drop in incomes and a massive increase in inequality.

    I think.

    Posted 2 years ago #
  8. chdot
    Admin

    “There's going to be a huge drop in incomes and a massive increase in inequality.“

    Simple answer is no one knows.

    In the immediate future any of that is likely to be Covid related rather than because of Brexit.

    How much is related to businesses being shut/going bust remains to be seen. How much of that is because people don’t return to city centre offices is largely unpredictable.

    I think it’s unlikely that Brexit will improve ‘world trade’/‘wealth’ (for all or any part of the UK). How much worse things will be due to Brexit/Covid/Climate Crises/the next pandemic can’t be predicted - or unpicked - now or probably after whatever happens.

    In the medium term, the current cost of Covid will be problematic - unless the whole basis of conventional economics is overturned - not impossible, but difficult to sketch out a scenario that results in a transition that won’t adversely affect a lot of people.

    I’m moderately optimistic for most people in the UK for the next 6 months or so.

    Hope for a pleasant spring and a nice summer.

    After that...

    Posted 2 years ago #
  9. I were right about that saddle
    Member

  10. crowriver
    Member

    It's odd how Brexiters are so bitter about it all now. They were betrayed - by themselves! Unable to deal with the reality, they need someone to blame. It would be hilarious if we weren't all going to suffer because of their irrational fears, hatred and selfishness.

    Posted 2 years ago #
  11. I were right about that saddle
    Member

    I will venture that the tribe of Remainers also has irrational fears, hatred and selfishness.

    2016 was the first time that tribe got a taste of what getting a kick in the mouth feels like. Up to then their selfishness was just called 'the economy'.

    Posted 2 years ago #
  12. crowriver
    Member

    @IWRATS, oh I'm under no illusions about that.

    There's a certain variety of Remainer with a defiantly centrist stance, exemplified by the Twitter hashtag FBPE, that finds any challenge to the status quo intolerable. Much of this is just self-serving status preservation, for sure.

    However I'm not convinced that kicking such smug people in the teeth, while simultaneously kicking yourself in the back of the head is a great idea...

    Posted 2 years ago #
  13. chdot
    Admin

    UK-EU trade faces major disruption even with deal, say auditors

    Spending watchdog claims ports and businesses are not ready for 1 January, with Northern Ireland a big concern

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/nov/06/uk-eu-trade-faces-major-disruption-even-with-deal-say-auditors

    Posted 2 years ago #
  14. I were right about that saddle
    Member

    We're in trouble but Northern Ireland is in real trouble.

    If we had a functional head of state they would set up camp in that place and summon everyone and not let them go until it was sorted.

    This is what heads of state should do: summon the executive to explain itself when they do crazy stuff.

    Posted 2 years ago #
  15. crowriver
    Member

    I see BBC News is already flagging up Biden's public statement that there will be no free trade deal for the UK if the Good Friday Agreement is not respected...

    Posted 2 years ago #
  16. I were right about that saddle
    Member

    They will turn us into North Korea if they break the Belfast Agreement. Ireland has friends. They have none.

    Posted 2 years ago #
  17. crowriver
    Member

    A very clear statement from Biden a couple of months back. Interesting that it was a headline on BBC News (on the radio), presumably because of recent remarks from Thomas Byrne, Ireland's minister for European affairs.

    ---

    Mr Byrne said: "He was very clear in his suggestion and statement on the 16th of September that any trade deal between the US and UK must be contingent on respect for the Good Friday Agreement and preventing the return of the hard border."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-54840747

    ---

    Article from September on the statement and Biden's Irish roots:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-54171571

    Posted 2 years ago #
  18. chdot
    Admin

    Biden on Brexit (apparently)

    https://twitter.com/antoguerrera/status/1324858153599705089

    Posted 2 years ago #
  19. LaidBack
    Member

    The museum of parliaments second chamber voted the IMB down twice last night. Not that it matters to the tone deaf government.

    A Scottish Holyrood committee asked a director from the Road Haulage Association about how well things are ready for next year.
    https://www.eveningexpress.co.uk/news/scotland/no-deal-brexit-plans-branded-bonkers-by-road-haulage-association/

    He said: “Absolutely not, this is a shambles. It’s been a shambles from beginning to end.

    “The information we have is incomplete, inadequate and quite often totally incomprehensible.

    “We feel we have been badly let down by the UK Government from beginning to end.”

    A no-deal Brexit could mean hauliers will be forced to rely on international road haulage permits known as ECMT permits, he said, demand for which far outstrips supply.

    There are only about 4,000 of these permits despite more than 40,000 being required, he said, and it is not possible to print more as the UK is only allocated a certain amount.

    Mr McKenzie added: “This is where we are now, the current default position is that we are effectively stopping the best part of 90% of companies from trading with Europe. It’s bonkers.”

    Posted 2 years ago #
  20. chdot
    Admin

    Britain set to fall short in race to replace EU trade deals

    https://www.ft.com/content/054bbead-3580-4ad7-b89f-144d518ab96a

    Posted 2 years ago #
  21. neddie
    Member

    “ The Brexit revolution just devoured its evil genius on top of 2 prime ministers, 3 chancellors, 3 foreign secretaries & 2 parliaments in 4 years

    Stability won’t return until Brexit is reversed. It will happen in stages. A new treaty taking us back into Customs Union, then rejoin”

    Andrew Adonis sums it up nicely

    https://twitter.com/andrew_adonis/status/1327180220756013056?s=21

    Posted 2 years ago #
  22. I were right about that saddle
    Member

    @neddie

    I will argue that this country has never been stable. The union of the Crowns was followed by the English civil war, the war of the three kingdoms and then invasion and defeat by Dutch forces leading to the glorious revolution. Also the wars of the covenant and the first Jacobite uprisings.

    The UK of GB was afflicted with three Jacobite uprisings.

    The UK of GB&I had the radical wars and a series of Irish uprisings culminating in the war of independence.

    The UK of GB&NI lost the British empire through multiple wars and had at least two uprisings in Northern Ireland that spilled over into England leading to the partial ceding of sovereignty over Northern Ireland.

    Then it suffered Brexit and will, I think, come apart for the last time in the next twenty five years. Reversing Brexit wouldn't stop that because Brexit was voted for by England and if it isn't delivered democracy there is just a mockery.

    Posted 2 years ago #
  23. LaidBack
    Member

    This quote from the National. Was noted how idle DD was when he was 'in charge' of whatever it was that England wanted from that union.


    Davis, who was allegedly described as “thick as mince” and “lazy as a toad” by Mr Cummings when in the Cabinet in 2017, also branded the adviser’s style “confrontational” but added the PM had “relied on him” and “there are things he (Mr Cummings) was right about”.

    I half expect BJ will make an announcement how 'in view of the pandemic in EU that he has graciously allowed our friends there more transition time before they 'go alone' and leave the embrace of the UK'.
    Cummings will undermine from now to the end of the year with more leaks.

    Posted 2 years ago #
  24. crowriver
    Member

    I doubt this has anything to do with Brexit directly.

    It's all about the Tory party feeling a bit unloved by Johnson due to the influence of his cronies, and the PM had to make a choice between Cummings and the party. No brainer really.

    Anything this government does (and previous Conservative administrations also) is always ultimately about what suits the party and its donors. I'm still amazed that after all these years, people don't seem to understand this simple truth.

    The charmingly old fashioned notion that government acts in the interests of the country (which one though?) disappeared somewhere back in the mists of time. Possibly under Thatcher, maybe even earlier than that.

    Posted 2 years ago #
  25. gembo
    Member

    Pre thatcher, was assumed (wrongly?) that Callaghan, Wilson, Heath etc we’re acting in the interest of the country. Thatcher blew this apart. Not sure why anyone would think this now?

    I commend Elvis Costello on Tracey McLeod’s late show singing tramp the dirt down

    Posted 2 years ago #
  26. crowriver
    Member

    @IWRATS, I concur with your analysis.

    The stability of the UK has been mythologised in the post-WW2 era, so much so we started to believe it.

    I also think it likely this union will not last much longer. The only question is the timescale.

    Posted 2 years ago #
  27. stiltskin
    Member

    So if the UK hasn’t been stable, perhaps you would like to point out a country that has been, within a similar timescale?

    Posted 2 years ago #
  28. gembo
    Member

    Switzerland according to Harry Lime

    Posted 2 years ago #
  29. acsimpson
    Member

    @stiltskin, I've lost track about which timescale we're talking about. Union of the crowns of post WWII?

    If the former then Switzerland is ruled out as they were warring internally as late as the 19th century.

    Iceland might qualify although Wikipedia says they were involved in the Napoleonic wars.

    Posted 2 years ago #
  30. I were right about that saddle
    Member

    @stiltskin

    I apologise if I gave the impression that I was saying our Atlantic archipelago is particularly unstable. What I was trying to say is that it is as unstable as everywhere else and stability is largely mythical.

    My favourite long-running entity is the Ottoman empire. Multi-faith multi-lingual and highly flexible. Eight hundred years that lasted.

    Posted 2 years ago #

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