If it wasn't so serious, it would be quite funny. I am disgusted by the politics at Westminster. And disappointed that parliament is unlikely to reconsider the exit despite the growing evidence of the negative consequences, previously cast aside as scare-mongering. And traumatised by the likely loss of rights as an EU citizen.
CityCyclingEdinburgh Forum » Debate!
Do we need an EU referendum thread? (Brexit thread)
(3978 posts)-
Posted 7 years ago #
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"She has a lot on her shoulders."
Yes.
Her standard mantra is 'doing what is best for Scotland'. I'm sure she means it and believes it, and will do her best to get some "control" of things that are a) out of control and b) lacking 'controllers' (at least at Westminster).
Of course there are many views on "best".
In the unlikely event that the EU somehow did a deal with a Scotland that was still in the UK, (or more likely after Independence - and, perhaps, instant re/joining) what would it mean?
If/when UK/England leaves, the EU will have less money due to the lack of England/UK's contribution. So is NS expecting the monies to/from the EU to be exactly the same or similar to the current situation or might it get more because of being isolated on the fringe of Europe behind a hard border somewhere near Hadrian's Wall??
Ultimately NS wants Independence, so in the unlikely event of a superdeal where Scotland has the best of all worlds without Indy, would she back that and try to sell it to the SNP?
Meanwhile back in the all-too-real world, She has a country to run, with extra powers still not devolved plus Osborne 'promising' more austerity, (in spite of 'Britain having a strong economy' - which may or may not be due to a fair amount of immigration), which presumably would mean less money than expected over the next couple of years.
And then?????
Still might be a UK General Election within months.
Or not.
And you thought "facts" were missing from IndyRef1
Posted 7 years ago # -
@Amir +1
Both major parties at Westminster more concerned with backstabbing and machinations than steering the country out of this mess they got us into.
On second thoughts - the thought of any of them trying to steer the country anywhere scares the bejaysus out of me.
Carry on Backstabbing...
Posted 7 years ago # -
Fantasy notion -
The next UK GE will be by PR so that Ruth can get some MPs so that (at Westminster) Scotland isn't 'all about' the SNP.
Posted 7 years ago # -
History.
"
“In the UK we maintain control over our borders,” she said. “Joining Europe’s borderless Schengen area could open Scotland’s border up to mass immigration.”
"
Interesting discussions to come with NS if TM is next PM.
Posted 7 years ago # -
The reality of what is possible with regards article 50 is very worrying - perhaps some perspective at least is to be gleaned from press elsewhere in the EU:
essentially this says that failure to invoke article 50 will be considered a violation of article 4 - i.e. loyal cooperation between members. As Cameron negotiated a "new deal" dependent on the referendum, failure to invoke article 50 will be considered blackmail. This article suggest that this will cause suspension of Britain's payments and voting rights under article 7 - supposedly to come into place in September in Bratislava. (Thanks to a colleague for finding this and providing a précis).
I always thought I would make my fortune as an international footballer, but now I realise I should have been a lawyer specialising in EU law.
Posted 7 years ago # -
From this:
Article 7 only appears to be usable upon breaches of Article 2, not Article 4. Article 2 is:
The Union is founded on the values of respect for human dignity, freedom, democracy, equality, the rule of law and respect for human rights, including the rights of persons belonging to minorities. These values are common to the Member States in a society in which pluralism, non-discrimination, tolerance, justice, solidarity and equality between women and men prevail.
Unless I'm missing something?
Posted 7 years ago # -
@algo
That is very interesting. I hadn't taken my jaw off the floor long enough think about how the 27 would view the UK delaying Article 50 proceedings. Of course they would consider themselves to have been blackmailed for the new concessions, having already assured everyone that they have the force of law. They are forced to backtrack on that assurance or face domestic ridicule. Maybe having a sovereign state treat you that way might be considered an affront to the rule of law? In any case they will be utterly and quite correctly furious.
I cycled around town and to the sea to get some perspective today. Couldn't shift a mental image of Boris swanning off to write his £500,000 Shakespeare biography over the summer to this tune;
Posted 7 years ago # -
@IWRATS ha - do we all do a unison version of Up the Junction in response?
Posted 7 years ago # -
Posted 7 years ago #
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Hi all - I'm watching this all unfolding from India at the moment, over here for work. All my Indian colleagues are expressing incredulity that we could be so collectively stupid. My view is that there is a good chance that article 50 will never be signed - the negotiation period is too short, all the cards are with the EU (who will obviously seeking to discourage anyone else from departing) and do I think the longer it takes, the more unlikely it becomes. Whoever is PM when it is signed will come back with a sucky deal, almost inevitably - that's not going to embolden them...
Posted 7 years ago # -
@adamthekiwi great tosee some optimism. Myself, I'm not sure that they're that smart
Posted 7 years ago # -
A WEEK (is a long time in what passes for politics).
Another female party leader on the cards - which is probably a good thing - not that that will be the 'end' of all this.
It's now the start of the summer holidays. Those who can afford to go 'abroad' will find it more expensive and may start to wonder whether changes to 'free movement' will affect them.
Those who voted to 'get their country back' may wonder when things will start getting 'better'.
"My view is that there is a good chance that article 50 will never be signed"
"I'm not sure that they're that smart"
Indeed.
I'm not sure I'm feeling optimistic enough to believe the uplifting interpretation of "the future is unwritten"
A man on the radio has just said "catastrophic political failure".
He's talking about the First World War (100 years since the Battle of the Somme).
Maybe 'the politicians' will sort something out in the best interests of Europe/UK/Scotland.
Maybe 'the people' will feel further let down and 'do something'.
The future is unwritten
Posted 7 years ago # -
If I've understood correctly it may now be almost as dangerous to apply under Article 50 as it would be to not apply. That's the stalemate.
Apply and you hand all the cards and weapons to your adversaries the EU and the SG.
Fail to apply and you are looking down the barrel of English insurrection and/or Prime Minister Farage.
I do wonder if the Queen's gyroscopes are being spun up as I type. On that note, we should bear in mind that the probability of an aristocratic ninety year old female reaching her ninety-first birthday is around 90%.
Posted 7 years ago # -
If currency changes interest you then you might like this site, various periods selectable from one day to ten years -
Posted 7 years ago # -
got to hope JC holds on til he can apologise for the Labour Party involvement in Iraq and to call for investigation beyond Chilcot of a more criminal nature.
Posted 7 years ago # -
Maybe 'the people' will feel further let down and 'do something'.
Indeed. Sadly, the signs point to that "something" being significant portions of England and Wales voting for UKIP.
Posted 7 years ago # -
This indicates the really terrifying prospect of the UK being made an example of by the EU, and the UK retaliating by threatening to eject resident foreign EU nationals. The latter makes me shudder....
Posted 7 years ago # -
@gembo - absolutely. I actually believe that's why he's digging his heels in and the Blairites are desperate to get rid of him. Not normally one for such "conspiracist" narratives but I reckon it rings true here...
Posted 7 years ago # -
So much game playing with people's lives
Posted 7 years ago # -
"Sadly, the signs point to that "something" being significant portions of England and Wales voting for UKIP."
Yes
But
The future is unwritten
Posted 7 years ago # -
"Fail to apply and you are looking down the barrel of English insurrection and/or Prime Minister Farage."
Considering Westminster doesnt have an MP called Farage, I'm guessing thats just a wee bit Hyperbole?
Posted 7 years ago # -
"Considering Westminster doesnt have an MP called Farage, I'm guessing thats just a wee bit Hyperbole?"
Not really, would be after a UK GE.
He's going to be unemployed soon.
Might even be an rUK election sometime in not too many years.
Posted 7 years ago # -
As no one has claimed a Ride to the Sun pint off me, I'm prepared to wager several that Nigel Farage will NEVER become PM of the UK, rUK or even an iEnglad should they go there.
Posted 7 years ago # -
"I'm prepared to wager several that Nigel Farage will NEVER become PM of the UK"
I'm sure there are some gamblers who will take you on.
Much shorter odds on him being an MP though.
Posted 7 years ago # -
@Edinburgh Cycle Traing
What @chdot said. I was trying to imagine what might happen if Article 50 isn't triggered. I think there would be severe repercussons including a surge in English nationalism which might be expressed through voting for UKIP.
What do you think might happen in that circumstance?
Posted 7 years ago # -
That assumes that Labour voters looked only to JC for guidance and Tory voters to DC. Surely voters are interested in what all politicians say?
Anyway, is there even such a thing as a Labour voter or a Tory voter anymore?
Posted 7 years ago # -
In 1995 George Robertson confidently predicted that the creation of the Scottish Parliament would kill nationalism stone dead. It took just eight years for there to be a nationalist First Minister.
I agree that Farage will never be PM (or English PM), but to claim in the current climate that an English nationalist party (probably UKIP or some successor) could not come to power seems a bit optimistic - although I hope you are right.
Posted 7 years ago # -
There is a surge in English Nationalism IMHO. It's been slowly simmering for a decade or so and is now boiling over into inreasingly frequent and increasing public displays of intolleerance and violence.
If article 50 isn't triggered I suspect the legal repercussions wil be far more sever and interesting than the English Nationalism ones.
It seemed you imagined Farage as PM was a realistic possibility. I can't envisage him as PM under any circumstances and am prepared to lose beer on the back of my gut feelings.
I also feel that there will be no significant rise in the Ukip vote. I suspect they have peaked. I expect the tories to appease their right wing more, and I expect Corbyn to survive as Labour leader and start the unification of his centre-left supporters.
All my life there have been peaks and troughs in right wing support. they never plateau. They have almost always followed a period of politi cal unrest and austerity. I hope and believe austerity government has now plateaued
Posted 7 years ago #
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