Also, as the Private Eye current edition makes clear, the Fixed Term Parliaments Act makes it very difficult for a general election to be called sooner than 2020.
CityCyclingEdinburgh Forum » Debate!
Do we need an EU referendum thread? (Brexit thread)
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Posted 8 years ago #
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Meanwhile Scotland is headed out of the UK. What looked likely over a ten-year period is now certain over three. There will be a second referendum; large parts of the Labour-loyal pro-unionist vote will switch to independence in order to keep Scotland in the EU. The United Kingdom will break up.
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Posted 8 years ago # -
I worked out this morning that the deflation of the £ against the € hands Nigel Farage an 11% (£15k) pay rise as he is paid in Euros.
Posted 8 years ago # -
Posted 8 years ago #
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The number of job vacancies dropped by almost 700,000 in the week after Brexit, as uncertainty over the stability of the UK economy took hold.
In the week before the referendum almost 1.5 million jobs were advertised online, dropping to under 820,000 in the following week, according to CEB, a consultancy.
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Posted 8 years ago # -
From the Le Monde piece chdot linked to above, this paragraph:
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If an election happens, Labour should call for an electoral pact with the SNP, the Welsh nationalist party Plaid Cymru and the Green Party. The aim would be to prevent UKIP gaining a strong foothold in parliament and to stop a Tory government. The price will have to be constitutional reform: a switch to proportional representation voting, and a no-penalty exit plan allowing Scotland to leave the UK without the kind of economic sabotage the Tories and the Bank of England threatened in 2014. I have called the strategy ProgrExit — progressive exit — and there are signs that it has greater popularity among the activists of these parties than among their leaderships, who are trying to work out how to survive.
"It takes real leadership to accept that the game's a bogey and that a structural, systemic change is essential. I doubt Labour's got that, but I'd be delighted to be proved wrong.
Posted 8 years ago # -
"I doubt Labour's got that, but I'd be delighted to be proved wrong."
Well as is all too clear there are at least two Labours (not even thinking about Scotland) - simplistically Corbyn v others.
(AKA, more simplistically, Corbyn v Blairites).
I only realised recently that Paul Mason (writer of article) was (and still is) in the Labour Party.
In another world Lab right and Tory left would form a new party (but everyone remembers the SDP) or some could defect to the LibDems (but EVERYONE remembers the Coalition!)
If Corbyn is evicted/defeated some MPs might go Green, but not enough for the 'main' parties to notice.
IF there is an election soon (increasingly unlikely) I suspect many more people will vote UKIP than Green. Assuming enough do to actually win seats (and Lab doesn't crash) it's quite possible the SNP could hold the balance of power!
If Westminster runs to full term, will it still have Scottish seats??
Sometimes times are too interesting.
Posted 8 years ago # -
I don't get this "Labour should form a pact with the SNP" thing. That was kind of loosely on the table at the last GE and Ed burnt that particular bridge with an unnecessary amount of fire.
The SNP is doing a pretty good job of keeping UKIP (and everyone else) out of Scottish Westmnister seats. Labour's danger lies in the non-metropolitan north, east, centre and west of England; pretty much anywhere that isn't London. That's where UKIP are likely to make advances. What does a Lab:SNP pact offer there?
What sort of form does this pact take? Labour won't campaign aggressively against the SNP in Scotland? Well that's never going to go down well as a dictact coming from London Labour to Scottish branches. And in return the SNP won't campaign against Labour in England?
I really don't think the SNP has much or anything to gain from an electoral pact with Labour. It's never going to be "if we help you can you just declare we're independent without a referendum please?" Realistically a Westminster Labour or Conservative government isn't really in a moral position to block another independence referendum if the SNP have a mandate for it from within Scotland. Ultimately it would stick in the throats of a significant slice of the SNP membership/voter base to get to cosy with Labour and the UK establishment.
And in the very unlikely event of some sort of Lab:SNP coalition, can you really see the SNP getting anything more than Scottish Secretary without causing uproar in England? I think Westminster would fall apart the second you put a nationalist with a very clear agenda of leaving the UK in any senior role in the British government.
The SNP has about as much political power as they can hope to squeeze out of Scotland just now, and offering a few concessions here and there is not what they're after. It's niave to think so. If there's hope for Labour, I don't see how it can lie in the north.
Posted 8 years ago # -
May 199 Leadsom 84
All three 'born in Scotland' candidates didn't get through (completely random coincidence).
Posted 8 years ago # -
I don't get this "Labour should form a pact with the SNP" thing.
It's the bind of the FPTP system that the parties will struggle to run an election on the explicit assumption that the best your party can hope for is working in a coalition. However, I fear that for all but one party at Westminster that is the reality of the situation. The game's a bogey.
These are very unusual times and we need unusual solutions. I would hope that those solutions would involve discussion and cooperation rather than shouting down of opponents, but the current antics in the Labour party do not fill me with confidence.
Posted 8 years ago # -
The media has reverted to its usual 'comfort food' of wondering which incompetent will become next pm. They never learn.
Scotland (and Ireland N+S) are very far down the list of things the Tory contenders will think about. These are people proven to be without plans, only interested in career move politics.
This does not fill me with hope. The smart money does not believe that they are capable of making any sort of meaningful 'deal' with EU.Posted 8 years ago # -
Sometime reader of this forum Ms Dugdale has today argued for there possibly being a possibility that Scotland could retain both the apple of participation in the British Union and the orange of membership of the European Union through a potential - and she has to say this tentatively - a potential federalist solution which could see us achieve that.
I wouldn't care to be in her shoes - it must be a very distressing position - but if she imagines for a moment that our new Prime Minister is going to undertake UK-wide constitutional upheaval on the say-so of Scotland, let alone the local head of Scotland's third-ranking political party then she is simply kidding herself.
Posted 8 years ago # -
could retain both the apple of participation in the British Union and the orange of membership of the European Union
I didn't think you were on Twitter?Posted 8 years ago # -
This is her whole speech -
Not really any 'answers'.
The chances are that Brexit will make things worse for many UK residents - quite likely disproportionately so for those who voted 'leave'.
Politicians blame other politicians and say 'we will do things differently/better'.
'Everyone' blames the unelected Brussels bureaucrats as if a bit of 'reform' would solve all problems - or wave bye bye and demand the trading benefits without the immigrants.
Hardly anyone mentions Climate Change, or scarce resources or population (beyond alleging they are all coming over here soon). The rich getting richer is a fact of life. "Markets" are something 'everyone' has respect/respond to as some sort of inevitable natural force.
Doesn't really matter who is in charge of any particular party or whether they split or move left or right. As long as they think they are a key part of the solution and a bit of tinkering with the system (or even some 'radical reform') is all that's needed, there's not much prospect of things getting any better for most people..
Posted 8 years ago # -
@kaputnik
Oh I'm not. But when the Cybernat General rehoots such delights I cannot escape the echoes.
Posted 8 years ago # -
+1 to @chdot. How the Greens can be arguing for untrammelled population growth in the first world without accepting that can have some unpleasant consequences is beyond me. And the Leavers arguing that it is only 'immigrants' putting pressure on local services, not lifestyle changes, longevity and family size of the existing population, makes them no better.
Governments have stopped trying to make people happier, and just focus on richer as it is easier to measure. Even then they look at GDP and not per capita GDP in the main.
Posted 8 years ago # -
This is her whole speech
Needs to be in paragraphs for legibility purposes.
Nicola Sturgeon meeting with EU bureaucrats
This is unhelpful language from someone who is ostensibly meant to be Pro-EU. "Bureaucrat" is not a word I'm familiar with being used as anything but a mild perjorative.
But anyway, yes we all do need to reflect on reasons why a not-too-insubstantial portion of the country voted for Leave. I can hazard a number of different guesses.
The SNP / Yes campaign of the 2014 referendum was based on an independent Scotland in Europe. I'm fairly confident that any forthcoming campaign will again be for an independent Scotland in Europe. I'm fairly sure also that the cohort who would wish an independent Scotland out of Europe have their priorities stacked in such an order that remaining in the UK but outside Europe is not something they'll readily vote for.
It's good of Kezia Dugdale to reflect. I dare say that if she and the Labour Party had been in a more reflective mood in 2014 ("we have to reflect on why over a million Scots* voted to leave the UK") they might not find themselves so deep in the electoral morass that they are currently in.
* as a footnote, apparently SNP press releases refer to "people of Scotland" rather than "Scots" or "Scottish people".
Posted 8 years ago # -
"Even then they look at GDP and not per capita GDP in the main."
Yes, but worse that, GDP includes 'everything' - new roads, car crashes etc!
"as it is easier to measure"
Gotta measure things...
But, 'bigger number than last year' shouldn't be the main measure of 'success'.
Posted 8 years ago # -
I'm not sure that I want the City of London to decamp en masse to our city, but this article, given the author's history, is remarkable;
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/1219f41c-4456-11e6-9b66-0712b3873ae1.html#axzz4DorZSZ7K
Posted 8 years ago # -
Paywall.
Synopsis?
Posted 8 years ago # -
Nicholas Macpherson
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The writer was permanent secretary to the Treasury and is now visiting professor at King’s College London
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2016. All rights reserved. Please don't cut articles from FT.com and redistribute by email or post to the web.
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Try pasting this into Google
The case for Scottish independence looks stronger post-Brexit
Posted 8 years ago # -
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Macpherson came to prominence during the 2014 Scottish independence referendum when he advised George Osborne against entering into a currency union with any Scottish independent state, which was contrary to initial Scottish National Party plans
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Posted 8 years ago # -
* as a footnote, apparently SNP press releases refer to "people of Scotland" rather than "Scots" or "Scottish people".
Understandable: more inclusive. Even having lived here more than half my life and having a Scottish granny and children I still wasn't born here.
Posted 8 years ago # -
It's a measure of the times we're living in that the Telegraph even reports this development, let alone that it quotes Scottish nationalist and socialist Jim Sillars in order to refute the original proposition.
On the delicate matter of who is 'Scottish' I'd suggest that if you or one of your parents has the right to vote in Holyrood elections and you are resident in Scotland then you are perfectly entitled to call yourself Scottish.
Posted 8 years ago # -
I'd say if you want to call yourself Scottish, you're Scottish.
Posted 8 years ago # -
@Cyclingmollie
That too!
Posted 8 years ago # -
A very thoughtful short essay from Murdo Fraser just out.
I read it more as an expression of his sadness at recent events rather than a blueprint for an actual future for the UK, but it is extremely interesting that he as a Conservative MSP feels free to express himself in this way.
He doesn't mention the EU and he skirts round the divide between London and England but I think I can see where he's headed.
Posted 8 years ago # -
"just out"
Not really -
Overtaken by events...
Posted 8 years ago # -
Huh....dated July 9, 2016 on the website.
https://reformscotland.com/category/melting-pot/
It is well overtaken.
Posted 8 years ago # -
"dated July 9, 2016 on the website"
Suspect that's one of those annoying web sites that always shows the current date to confuse people!
Posted 8 years ago #
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