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Do we need an EU referendum thread? (Brexit thread)

(3979 posts)
  • Started 9 years ago by I were right about that saddle
  • Latest reply from LaidBack

  1. chdot
    Admin

    If you find the article via Google you can usually get through paywall.

    This is the May version

    "
    WTO warns on tortuous Brexit trade talks

    Azevêdo says Britain faces billions in annual costs as well as renegotiations with trade body

    "

    This is from 3 days ago

    "

    Brexit and the WTO option: Key questions about a looming challenge - FT.com

    "

    Posted 8 years ago #
  2. spytfyre
    Member

    Yeah I was watching the Mock the Week and was laughing at the story of how we need negotiators and they are professionals at negotiating. they will be negotiating their salary and we will be paying a LOT.
    Hopefully Nic and May have a productive meeting.
    See anyone at the Stop Trident march tomorrow? 12pm at the Mound...

    Oh Look Leadsom says silly thing... again

    Posted 8 years ago #
  3. PS
    Member

    This week, another able Conservative politician Rory Stewart said at a City seminar the crucial distinction to be made in the politics of Brexit is between “will” and “capacity”. One should not be confused with the other. It may well be that the new government is willing to go through with Brexit — but that is not enough. The UK has to be capable of going through with it too.

    http://blogs.ft.com/david-allen-green/2016/07/14/david-davis-brexit-and-the-shapelessness-of-things-to-come/

    Posted 8 years ago #
  4. kaputnik
    Moderator

    For those seeking further reading outwith the partisan press, you could do a lot worse than here;

    http://ukandeu.ac.uk/

    "The authoritative source for independent research on UK-EU relations"

    This recent article is specific on the "what it means for Scotland" topic; http://ukandeu.ac.uk/scexit-from-brexit/.

    Posted 8 years ago #
  5. wee folding bike
    Member

    Is Mrs May planning to use Scotland to block a UK Brexit?

    That's going to make us so darn popular in some parts of England.

    Posted 8 years ago #
  6. I were right about that saddle
    Member

    I just had a prolonged discussion with the most political person I know, someone with long involvement with party politics in Scotland who can tell you not just the winner but the candidates and their returns in the 1973 Govan By-election.

    This person, unconnected to the SNP but an abiding Scottish nationalist and amateur historian, suggested that we should take the Constitutional Reform Group's proposals much more seriously than I did. He noted the involvement not just of Robert Garscoyne-Cecil but much more importantly of Peter Hain, the arch Blairite fixer and architect of Welsh devolution.

    He suspects that the key element of the plan is the written constitution, not federalism. This would allow a mechanism for the permanency of the Union to be enshrined above parliamentary process. At the moment the sovereign can sign an Act establishing a British Republic or anything else, including a Kingdom of Scotland. A written constitution would make this much harder.

    The problems come with imposing such a constitution, and also from federalism which is not the aim but the cover. If an English parliament is ever established he thinks, then the Union is, by default, over, sooner or later.

    Posted 8 years ago #
  7. wee folding bike
    Member

    After listening to Brenda purring the next thing Dave did on 19th September was to start the ball rolling on EVEL. It's not an English parliament but it is a step along that road.

    Posted 8 years ago #
  8. I were right about that saddle
    Member

    @wee folding bike

    Equally, EVEL could be seen as a step to blocking demands for an English parliament by retaining English issues in Westminster.

    Posted 8 years ago #
  9. chdot
    Admin

    This'll slow things down -

    "

    The Prime Minister said after a meeting with Ms Sturgeon she would not formally start the process of leaving the bloc until there was a coherent “UK approach” to negotiations.

    "

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-theresa-may-article-50-activated-uk-approach-eu-referendum-scotland-sturgeon-a7138971.html

    Posted 8 years ago #
  10. I were right about that saddle
    Member

    This'll speed things right back up again;

    The new minister in charge of Brexit says the UK should be able to formally trigger its departure from the EU "before or by the start of next year".

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-uk-leaves-the-eu-36802756

    Posted 8 years ago #
  11. wee folding bike
    Member

    I don't see that Mrs May can slow it down much because there is a UK election in 2020 and either UKIP or Brexit Tories would be after blood is she hasn't done anything by then.

    Posted 8 years ago #
  12. chdot
    Admin

    "UKIP or Brexit Tories would be after blood is she hasn't done anything by then"

    More likely a lot sooner.

    BUT

    There are SO many unknowns, not least how Ireland plays the prospect of a new border with the north (and especially the legally binding realities of the Good Friday Agreement).

    Posted 8 years ago #
  13. chdot
    Admin

  14. chdot
    Admin

  15. LaidBack
    Member

    Latest Big Issue had heading 'Scotland Welcomes the World'. This was about Football (Homeless) World Cup in Glasgow. Comment inside ignores Scotland's EU vote though.
    I fully expect a massive effort to gloss our failure to answer question in correct way. Theresa May's has to visit Belfast and Dublin soon surely?

    I expect the PM will want to get Nicola as close as possible to 'share the blame' when EU becomes 'unreasonable' to the UK's demand. Media can then blame bad Edinburgh and Brussels when things don't go to the (non existent) plan. Classic fodder for the Mail. Won't fool anyone here but won't help relations.

    Posted 8 years ago #
  16. I were right about that saddle
    Member

    Edinburgh South MP Ian Murray added: "Many people have talked about an independent Scotland but haven't really examined the issues of trying to keep the advantages of the EU, but Scotland in the UK."

    I can only imagine this will be a couple of hours of quantum mechanical unicorns leaping boldly over phalanxes of cloud-cuckoos but you never know.

    Also, nota bene 'advantages', not membership with its tedious obligations.

    Posted 8 years ago #
  17. PS
    Member

    keep the advantages of the EU, but Scotland in the UK."

    It's the reverse Greenland model - Greenland's an autonomous part of Denmark but managed to leave the EU in 1985 whilst Denmark stayed in. I'd be surprised if it comes to pass for Scotland, but it indicates that there may be flexibility in the membership model.

    Brexit is a god awful mess. No-one can agree on what it even means, and it's all been driven by an advisory referendum that didn't even cover the exit options (or indeed a realistic discussion of the issues involved). The best I can hope for is someone with a duty of care to the UK (MPs, PM, civil service) kicks it all into the long grass.

    Posted 8 years ago #
  18. Firedog
    Member

    "Many people have talked about an independent Scotland but haven't really examined the issues of trying to keep the advantages of the EU, but Scotland in the UK."

    Wasn't the Standing Council on Europe set up to consider all options? As far as I've read, it has a unionist majority so I'd imagine staying in the UK is an option they' look at.

    Posted 8 years ago #
  19. chdot
    Admin

    "

    This whiff of compromise has been fuelled by the first wave of bad Brexit-related economic news. Data from IHS Markit’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) last week showed a fall to 47.7 in July -- a “dramatic deterioration” in economic activity not seen since the aftermath of the financial crisis in 2009.

    Of course a partial “about turn,” wouldn’t be easy to deliver. Newspapers predict a Eurosceptic group of 25 Tory MPs will submit a ‘No Surrender’ Brexit blueprint to Downing Street this week calling for Theresa May to sever links with the ­single market immediately and completely. That group represents just a tiny fraction of Tory MPs but the Prime Minister knows any Brexit-lite deal would need the validation of a second referendum or another general election to survive. Since pollsters, spin doctors and politicians misread the mood of the English electorate so badly a month ago, she might not be eager to return to the ballot box any time soon. But what alternative does the Prime Minister have? Endless prevarication – as unsettling as triggering Article 50 now – or full Brexit which might not pass the Commons.

    "

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/lesley-riddoch-brexit-lite-may-appeal-to-yes-switherers-1-4185402

    Posted 8 years ago #
  20. chdot
    Admin

  21. ih
    Member

    BBC report. The British economy is in the steepest decline since the recession in 2009, according to July trading figures.

    Posted 8 years ago #
  22. crowriver
    Member

    Maybe those new roads won't be needed after all.

    Growth in new UK car sales slows in July

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/aug/04/new-uk-car-sales-slow-down-to-a-trickle-in-july

    Posted 8 years ago #
  23. chdot
    Admin

    http://www.edinburghnews.scotsman.com/news/politics/councillor-mark-mcinnes-made-peer-by-david-cameron-1-4194644

    "

    Mark McInnes CBE – Conservative Councillor for the Meadows/Morningside Ward in Edinburgh and Director of the Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party

    "

    https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/543973/resignation_peerages_2016.pdf

    Well I knew he was a CEC councillor, but his day job had passed me by - as had his role (presumably?) in the Ref.

    Posted 8 years ago #
  24. chdot
    Admin

    "

    “It is not a British festival or a Scottish festival. It belongs to that sacred zone where the language of international art can be used, come what may.

    “The Brexit vote sends out a message that we are content to ignore the fact that we’re now living in a global village. When the festival started up it was something we could believe in because it represented world civilisation.”

    "

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/brexit-is-biggest-threat-ever-to-edinburgh-festival-says-ricky-demarco-1-4196197

    Posted 8 years ago #
  25. I were right about that saddle
    Member

    Call for views from those affected by the referendum outcome;

    http://www.parliament.scot/Inquiries/Written_Call_for_Evidence_-_FINAL_VERSION.pdf

    I suspect many on here will, like me, have stories to tell and suggestions to make.

    Posted 8 years ago #
  26. Baldcyclist
    Member

    "BBC report. The British economy is in the steepest decline since the recession in 2009, according to July trading figures."

    "...have stories to tell..."

    "I'm going to vote remain as I have my flat in Livingston up for sale, and don't really fancy any financial shocks at the moment, although last time we tried to sell it was 2008..."

    2 days after the vote our estate agent told us we'd be as well putting another tenant in as there was little chance of selling the flat because of the vote.

    4 weeks on, and we have a new tenant in (and are about to fix the mortgage again for 5 years), whilst we watch the 'price reduced' tags appear on all of the flats in the same estate which are also on the market. Some have reduced more than £10K (almost 10% of value) and still aren't selling.

    Seen a similar slowdown on larger properties on the estate we live in, houses which were selling in 2 - 3 weeks before now seeing little interest at all.

    Posted 8 years ago #
  27. LaidBack
    Member

    Schwalbe tyre prices are going up by 18%.

    First we had the banking crash. Then we had austerity. In the background Middle East wars rumbled on with the threat of terror in Europe. The IndyRef came and went and alarmed the media in London for two weeks.
    Then the Brexiteers basically grounded a fragile economy aided by the same media people.

    Talking to people I realise we are now a collection of countries with illusions of our importance to mainland Europe and the rest of the world. In Scotland we think that Europe may want us but in reality they can live without the hassle.

    One country's self harm is another country's business opportunity.

    Both T May and N Sturgeon should not be surprised when the European view basically lumps English, Scottish, N Irish and Welsh attempts to win the least ugly part of Britain contest with less than 'great enthusiasm'.

    Brexit is over and Europe moves on. From the rEU view 'The Britlanders' failed to plan in a spectacularly inept fashion and are now entering a period where their only growth industry is negotiation and arguing between themselves.

    I appreciate that ScotGov is at least trying to make something positive (unlike the sleepy hollow of Westminster) but Germany's Europe minister will not even utter the word Scotland in regards to the UK situation.

    I'm losing hope and goodwill from Europe is low. For small businesses this means higher prices and money up front as we appear to be a risky and weak market.

    Posted 8 years ago #
  28. chdot
    Admin

    "

    The Brexit vote has “shocked and horrified” employers who rely on large numbers of EU migrants to keep their businesses going, a new report has revealed.

    A survey of those running UK hospitality, food and drink and construction businesses has uncovered the depth of concern employers feel for their enterprises and their employees.

    "

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/brexit-horrified-scots-businesses-with-eu-workforce-1-4201910

    Posted 8 years ago #
  29. ih
    Member

    Too late, too late..

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37238641

    " The only high-profile figures who, according to the poll, persuaded more voters of their position than drove them to vote the other way were Boris Johnson, Nigel Farage and US presidential candidate Donald Trump, who backed Brexit."

    Posted 8 years ago #

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