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IT’S TRUE!
CCE is 15years old!
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RULES No personal insults. No swearing.
"he will fall on his sword".
Doesn't sound plausible at all. His government will be brought down if he tries to go for Hard Brexit against the wishes of parliament. That seems the more likely outcome to me.
So make sure your electoral registration is current as I reckon a general election is coming in the autumn.
The three ultimate outcomes available to the UK of GB&NI (and therefore Gibraltar) are;
1) Signing the withdrawal agreement
2) Revoking Article 50 notice, and
3) Exiting the EU chaotically
If Her Majesty's Government fails, for any reason, to carry out 1) or 2) then 3) happens by automatic operation of international law.
I'm no expert but I find it very hard to imagine any plausible mechanism by which 1) or 2) come about. For one thing I can't think of a plausible candidate for prime minister who would do either.
"Exiting the EU chaotically"
Sure, the downfall of a brief Johnson led government doesn't preclude this outcome. A new PM could go begging for a long extension, which the EU might just grant.
We can but hope.
If on the other hand we crash out of the EU without a deal amid a rudderless UK government/parliament, then Scottish independence looks ever more likely.
“then Scottish independence looks ever more likely.”
Only if Scottish voters do what (half of) UK voters did for the Brexit vote - ‘read the side of the bus and *believe* everything will be alright’.
A lot would depend on how much EU would be saying ‘vote to leave UK and join EU next day’ (unlikely).
I think a rational case could be made for ‘better out of post-Brexit UK’ but would mean a lot of ifs and maybe and promises from international (self)interests.
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The Brexit party leader, Nigel Farage, has put forward the prospect of a coalition with the Conservative party to ensure the UK leaves the EU without a deal, and offered Boris Johnson his support following his row with his partner.
“I’d do a deal with the devil to get a proper, clean Brexit,” Farage told TalkRadio.
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Only if Scottish voters do what (half of) UK voters did for the Brexit vote
Maybe... I voted in line with what I considered to be the evidence in both referendums and that was the status quo. However I'm feeling disengaged with Westminster given the shenanigans and my heart would now be inclined to be rid of the lot of them.
I suspect that a second Indyref would not require the pull of an unspecified utopia, when the push factors have intensified. Often it is much easier to say what you don't want than what you do.
I trust I'd still examine the financial implications, etc, but the patent evidence of a dysfunctional Westminster political system will factor into a decision. There seems little opportunity to reform Westminster, so being rid may well be a considered response.
Robert
New report from the British Association of Unicorn Breeders.
We float the idea of a common zone for the island of Ireland and the island of Britain with a common rule book (similar to the Australia-NZ Food Safety Area), which would allow IE to break the common area if the UK diverged beyond the level of EU tolerance....
We all have comforting fantasies in order to function as human beings but I'm beginning to find attempts to tell Ireland what it can, can't and should do almost as irritating as attempts to tell Scotland what we can do.
The Use of the WTO Frontier Traffic Exemption and the WTO National Security Exemption could also support larger Special Economic Zones which would ensure that border communities are not disrupted. For example, potential zones around Derry (Londonderry)-Donegal, and Newry (to Dundalk) should be considered.
What could possibly go wrong with the micro-partition of Ireland I wonder?
The wheels are coming off the bus!
Problem with the wheels coming off that bus is the one behind is just as bad (politically).
We need a safe pair of wheels.
If I was Alexander Johnston I'd be touring the Tory Associations in person, exuding brio and charm and the kind of opinions that can only be expressed in private.
Why would he waste his time on TV being dissected by non-voters who despise him?
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Boris Johnson has admitted he would need EU co-operation to avoid a hard Irish border or crippling tariffs on trade in the event of no deal.
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“We were committed to [the backstop]. We actually helped to invent it. We were the authors of our own incarceration. Take that away. Change the approach of the UK negotiators and you have a very different outcome,” he said.
Incarceration, eh?
1) The EU negotiation team has disbanded and moved on to other projects. There is no one for them to speak to.
2) I think if they changed their approach they would no longer be 'UK negotiators' but English negotiators.
A compromise outcome would be for England to leave the UK of GB&NI and therefore the EU. That would respect the 1998 referendums in Ireland and Northern Ireland, the 2014 referendum here and the 2016 referendum results in NI, Scotland and England. Wales would need to make its mind up.
“A compromise outcome would be for England to leave the UK of GB&NI”
Clearly need for a referendum...
Clearly need for a referendum...
We already had four;
1) GFA/Belfast Agreement hugely approved in Ireland and Northern Ireland
2) Devolution hugely approved in Scotland
3) Scottish independence rejected.
4) EU membership rejected in England and Wales, approved in Northern Ireland and hugely approved Scotland.
Obviously England should leave the UK of GB&NI and offer to take Wales along with it. Then the UK of Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland revokes Article 50 notice and England begins its FTA negotiations. Everyone is happy.
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He says “creative ambiguity” is needed over when the UK will pay the £39bn to the EU. On the backstop, he says there is no need for a hard border in Ireland. He says the Alternative Arrangements Commission report out yesterday on alternatives to this was “brilliant”.
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"It is deeply disturbing that Boris Johnson, a high priest of the Brexit movement, still doesn't seem to understand the most basic aspects of his project, or the consequences of the whirlwind of populism he unleashed in the UK," Sophie In't Veld, a liberal member of the European Parliament told CNN. "It is likely he will now have to deliver on the undeliverable promises he made during the referendum campaign; Europe will not assist him with these matters,"
It's not just Johnson. The only other candidate left in the race, Jeremy Hunt, has been making equally evidence-free claims that he can get some kind of new deal on the basis that he used to be a businessman and is good at deals.
This is what Brexit has come to. Three years since the UK voted to leave the EU, it's becoming abundantly clear that those at the very top of the political elite have either not understood or chosen to ignore the lessons Theresa May learned the hardest way imaginable.
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https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2019/06/25/uk/boris-johnson-doesnt-understand-brexit-intl-gbr/index.html
@IWRATS
It’s worth noting that the Devolution Referendum was won by a different order of magnitude to the subsequent ones in Scotland: 75:25 split and a 1.1million vote majority.
Given that 2014 and 2016 were won by approx 400k and 600k each, the modern crop of politicians would give their eye teeth to have that level of public support!
Maybe they’ll try listening to us next!?
@14Westfield
Yes I remember voting in 1997. After the preceding 18 years it was like someone asking if we'd care to surface for a breath of air after being stuck underwater. That said I barely paid its operations any heed for the first ten years. Any air is good air.
Powerful devolved legislatures are not, I think, compatible with the UK of GB&NI leaving the EU. They won't turn the parliament into flats or anything but they will drain it of power and then mock it as ineffectual. I expect we'll get a Glasgow to Inverness motorway on Union Jack stilts or something.
Don't give them ideas.
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Stewart, who said he was backing Johnson’s opponent, Jeremy Hunt, said: “Parliament is against no deal. It is only the legal default because parliament made it the legal default. Parliament can unmake it the legal default. There are many, many opportunities in legislation that have to brought forward, that could be amended in order to stop a no-deal Brexit.”
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Probably true, but...
It is only the legal default because parliament made it the legal default.
When parliament approved the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union and then approved Artcle 50 notice it became the default outcome;
I don't know enough about the rules of the Palace of Gormenghast to be sure but I can't see how parliament can force Her Majesty's Government to do anything at all. They can issue proclamations and maybe even imprison people but they can't force anyone to sign the withdrawal agreement or an Article 50 revocation letter.
And it's Her Britannic Majesty that appoints prime ministers. Oh God what if she dies between now and the 31st of October? One in twenty five chance according to my back of a silver cigarette case calculations.
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I’m the person who’s far, far more likely to deliver Brexit by October 31 because I can negotiate a deal with the European Union and that’s what I’m going to do.
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COnversation with an Italian tonight where I said, "...or Boris becomes PM and abolishes devolution, in which case--" and she stopped me with "NO NO NO HE CANNOT BE PM MY COUNTRY ALREADY HAVE FASCISTS IN POWER GIVE ME SOME HOPE". Her "leave Italy, live with family abroad" plans were no help as her relatives are in the USA and Brazil...
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Boris Johnson’s claims about the prospects of rewriting the Brexit deal have been compared by the European parliament’s Brexit coordinator to the “false promises, pseudo-patriotism, and foreigner-bashing” he is said to have used to win the referendum.
The suggestion from the Tory leadership frontrunner that he will be able to dump Theresa May’s withdrawal agreement, withhold the UK’s £39bn divorce bill and still negotiate a free trade deal in Brussels has been savaged by Guy Verhofstadt.
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Describing Johnson as the Vote Leave campaign’s “most prominent architect” and “a man who continues to dissemble, exaggerate, and disinform”, Verhofstadt said he appeared to be unable to stop spreading “untruths”.
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A former aide to the ex-Brexit secretary David Davis once said Shinner was so pivotal to the no deal planning that if he left his job Brexit would not happen.
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The damage to the UK economy due to Brexit has cost £66 billion ($86 billion) so far, and left the United Kingdom teetering at the brink of a new recession, according to economic data published last week.
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https://www.businessinsider.com/price-of-brexit-66-billion-recession-2019-4
More delusions -
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Hunt said he would tell business owners that a no-deal Brexit was necessary to maintain the UK’s image abroad as “a country where politicians do what the people tell them to do”.
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The UK of GB&NI is very odd and getting odder by the day.
Can't be long until Gazza turns up in his dressing gown with a fishing rod and takeaway chicken.
So, the Tory leadership contest seems to boil down to the difference between tax cuts for the wealthy, or putting money into the pockets of businesses.
Can we not just get rid of this lot?
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