CityCyclingEdinburgh was launched on the 27th of October 2009 as "an experiment".
IT’S TRUE!
CCE is 15years old!
Well done to ALL posters
It soon became useful and entertaining. There are regular posters, people who add useful info occasionally and plenty more who drop by to watch. That's fine. If you want to add news/comments it's easy to register and become a member.
RULES No personal insults. No swearing.
I'm not advocating anybody cycle/ bus / walk / train anywhere, I would just be in total disbelief if testing was only available for drivers, immediately excluding 40% of Edinburgh households.
Additionally, the virus is very hard to transmit in the air, that's why outdoor events are much lower risk (e.g. the rugby over the weekend). the mask's efficacy really comes by stopping hand to mouth contact.
I had an operation yesterday at Queen Margaret in Dunfermline- discussion with anaesthetist and Italian Stagiare was ongoing - feeling there was about a lack of information coming from the leadership at the hospital.
The Stagiere (From Pompeii, not North) was saying that people were mainly p1ssed off, but mostly isolating but that the main trouble was with people who were "too important" to follow the guidelines. The state reaction was sensible, if a little too late, which ties in with what others were saying upthread.
It was just getting interesting and then I was out of it and woke up 2 hrs later.
My understanding is that at the moment, if you're poorly it's most likely to be a "regular" virus. I have a friend who came back from Italy with a cough and after a trip through the drive through was tested clear.
I *hope* the the politicians are taking the advice from the Epidemiologists.
I would be really interested to see what the models says. I suspect that there will some kind of sweet spot of infection rates once the infection is spreading in the general population at which point they want to slow everything down, and some of that will be down to how good we are at washing hands and minimising contact anyway.
But there will be a time limit of how long people/politicians will want to shut things down, lock down too early and open back up too early and we're just back at the staring point and will still get hit by a wave of infection.
I really don't envy anyone involved in that process, very easy to write articles saying that we need to go on lockdown as soon as possible but I suspect that the reality is much more nuanced.
I would be really interested to see what the models says.
One of @Stickman's colleagues I think.
@iwrats: yes, one of the UK’s leading longevity experts. He has a team of similar experts, including medical researchers and an epidemiologist, working for him and they have strong links and collaborate with the wider medical community. We all have people who we particularly trust and listen to: Stuart is such a person for me.
@IWRATS and @Stickman, thanks. Really interesting and well worth reading, his analysis shows that May time and beyond before we see a very high proportion infected.
Interesting to note that the school Easter holidays are the first two weeks of April, wonder how that will effect things.
“may as well self promote my response to the "2 strains" nonsense you may have seen in the news”
Another (genuine) CCE expert outed!
‘May be up to 1/5th off work’ (at same time apparently)
Chancellor
http://citycyclingedinburgh.info/bbpress/topic.php?id=20135#post-324332
My understanding is that at the moment, if you're poorly it's most likely to be a "regular" virus
that's what i've been saying all week, until i got symptoms today.
now recognising the prickly sensations in my lungs as being the same ones i got when foolishly mixing up a sack of cement with water in a confined space.
and i cant remember ever getting a flu viral in march before..
so the jury remains out.
Worth checking out Devi Sridhar @devisridhar / https://twitter.com/devisridhar Professor & Chair of Global Public Health at Edinburgh Uni Medical School.
E.G.
To all those saying: 80-85% have mild illness so don't worry.
1. Think about people who are elderly or have pre-existing conditions
2. Burden on health services will mean that everyone will be affected by disruption
3. 1-3% fatality rate is huge # of people at pop level.
I'm currently trying to persuade my mum / brothers to commit to some social distancing...
All-staff e-mail at work: Hand sanitiser no longer available commercially.
Have offered to help brew some.
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We are expanding Covid-19 testing with a new ‘drive-through’ station.
This is only for those assessed by a GP over the phone and given an appt by Public Health.
Find out more here
https://on.nhsfife.org/39FFhdA
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German chancellor Angela Merkel warned that up to 70% of the population will be infected unless measures can be found to slow the spread of the outbreak.
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Coronavirus or not, don’t let colleagues see the squalid reality of your home. An artfully placed pot plant or stack of books may help
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pro tip: Teams has a feature that lets you blur your background.
Here’s the government’s pandemic playbook:
Officially a pandemic now according to WHO:
My Mum's just been refused a test despite having fever, cough and tight chest. She was told they're not testing in Fife because there are no cases here. I think my tinfoil hat will be coming out soon...
The reason we’ve got relatively low numbers in this country at the moment is because they’re only been testing about 1,500 a day. I think the infection has been widespread for a month now.
I guess most people think the idea is that the government/NHS is trying to stop the virus in it's tracks - but is it more likely that it's being purposefully cultivated to ensure we reach the point where infections are sustained but 'controllable'? As @chrisfl said above, there must be a sweet-spot that means we don't get a peak now and we don't get one in the future, just a smooth, steady, consistent transmission.
Wife's friend was told by someone from Fife Council that all Fife schools are being closed next Friday.
She's a 50/50 gossip, sometimes on the money. I suspect this time she's way off, if she is right it will be coincidence because of circumstance.
Data on 11/3/2020
Europe: Italy (10 149), France (1 784), Spain (1 639), Germany (1 296), Switzerland (490), Netherlands (382), United Kingdom (373) England (310) Scotland (36), Wales (15), Northern Ireland (12), Sweden (326), Norway (277), Belgium (267), Denmark (264), Austria (182), Greece (90), Iceland (70), Czech Republic (63), San Marino (62), Portugal (41), Finland (40), Ireland (35), Slovenia (31), Romania (25), Georgia (23), Poland (22), Russia (20), Croatia (13), Estonia (13), Hungary (12), Azerbaijan (11), Albania (10), Belarus (9), Latvia (8), Luxembourg (7), North Macedonia (7), Slovakia (7), Serbia (5), Bulgaria (4), Malta (4), Lithuania (3), Moldova (3), Bosnia and Herzegovina (2), Cyprus (2), Andorra (1), Armenia (1), Holy See (1), Liechtenstein (1), Monaco (1) and Ukraine (1).
@bax, have you phoned 111 at least to report your symptoms to the apparently overwhelmed call centre staff? Circa 8 days with 40+ C temperature and no test doesn't sound like much fun:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1237308267552034821.html
The official figures are likely to be underestimating number of cases by quite a big margin if this is typical. Apparently 460 in UK latest results: real number maybe six times that?
@CocoShepherd, I think she needs to phone her GP.
“Crucially, only those who have been assessed by a GP over the phone and given an appointment by Public Health should present at our testing site. Those presenting without an appointment will not be seen.”
@toomanybikes miniSRD saw a graph on the BBC website https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-51235105 where it shows a massive spike in cases in china, which is explained as 'spike after broader definition used in diagnosis'. it then disappears as they revert to original definition.
Can you explain anything about this? thanks!
Listened to a podcast with this bloke- https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Osterholm .
He was full of doom and gloom too, but interestingly he thought handwashing is pretty ineffective, but it makes the public feel that it's doing something. His view is the virus is an airborne virus, and will be around for months. He doesn't think mass closures work and believes once the doors are open again in Wuhan there will be another large outbreak there. It will only die out once everyone has had it, we can't stop it, it slow it.
have you phoned 111
@crowriver - not bothering with that rigmarole unless i have difficulty breathing, or convulsions. there's no chance of a test unless you are already hospitalised.
interesting link, thanks
Apparently 460 in UK latest results: real number maybe six times that?
Not sure what weight to put in it but that poppy tomas pueyo article upthread would lead us to think >7k total, as 8 deaths spread over last week means 800ish people were infected 17 to 24 days back, with each one then doubling every 6 days.
460 UK - my Euro stats were out as I subtracted today's larger Scottish/Welsh/NI results from smaller UK sum, meaning less in England.
As people say all amounts are under-reported from each national admin.
Tiny Switzerland has as many cases as whole UK. Then again it's beside Italy and two weeks ahead.
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