the original £30bn budget ... a new figure, “with contingency”, is nearer £130bn.
I make that a 330% increase. Not quite the 750% overbudget on the WCML, but hey ho, it might get there...
CityCyclingEdinburgh Forum » Debate!
"HS2: 'Timetable needed' for high-speed rail to reach Scotland"
(135 posts)-
Posted 4 years ago #
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The £100bn figure is from an unconfirmed leak (a Dom classic?) and AFAIK already includes contingency. So I wouldn't be surprised if he's just made that figure up.
Posted 4 years ago # -
Every “northern powerhouse” report pleads for improved local connectivity, both by road and rail. Getting from Leeds to Bradford, Sheffield and Manchester is barely faster than in the 19th century. No commuter crammed on a Leeds platform could honestly demand priority for a premium train from Birmingham to London, built to compete with west coast trains currently running at 60% capacity.
This is pretty telling. Certain rail PR buffs on Twitter are busy claiming the WCML is at capacity...
Posted 4 years ago # -
The proposed new Northern Powerhouse line uses dozens of kilometres of proposed HS2 track. The full connectivity benefits rely on HS2 being built, in full. It's not either/or.
WCML is very close to capacity at peak. No idea where his figure comes from but strongly suspect it's from the same people who take photographs of empty cycle superhighways in the middle of the day and claim they're a waste of space.
Posted 4 years ago # -
"HS2’s most vocal northern supporter, Greater Manchester’s mayor, Andy Burnham, expects an extra £39bn for local and regional connectivity. But he must know that HS2 would suck all oxygen out of railway investment for the next two decades."
Ha! A bit less naive than believing the HS2 money would go anywhere near the railways if it were cancelled. The leaders of the Tory resistance have some exciting ideas...
Posted 4 years ago # -
I have heard that the line itself is at or near capacity but the trains themselves are not. This is apparently due to the vagaries of ticket pricing such that the peak trains are half-empty while certain off-peak trains are rammed.
Posted 4 years ago # -
I continue to be mystified that these campaigners seem not to mind the £29bn of roads investment planned for before the HS2 trains are even running.
Maybe roads don't affect trees?
I suppose once built they are, like Heathrow airport, carbon neutral.
Posted 4 years ago # -
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It is worth pointing out that HS2 is not that popular with some of the voters supposed to be benefiting from levelling up. In her revealing book Beyond the Red Wall, which is based on focus group research with voters in Red Wall seats, Deborah Mattinson (who has just been made Labour’s head of strategy) reveals huge scepticism about HS2. Describing one focus group she says:
All were agreed on one thing, however: HS2 is not the solution. Fundamentally, everyone believed that HS2’s aim had been to enable spoilt Londoners to move around the country with greater ease. Several of the Red Wallers I met had never been to London, and those that had had typically only visited for an occasional family holiday to see the sights or take in a West End show. They had no problem at all with the speed with which they could currently get from where they lived to the capital.
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Posted 3 years ago # -
HS2 fails even the basic Network Rail system for managing projects
The 8-stage GRIP process starts with an examination of the problem/issues and progresses through looking at options and costings until around GRIP 6 details on funding, land acquisition, outline design etc are in place at GRIP 7 the project is 'sealed' so that design is finalised, land purchase & agreements in place, & work can start - we still have changes being made & no final designs for so many parts of HS2
By contrast the Almond Chord (part of EGIP to build from Kirkliston to Turnhouse on the Edinburgh-Fife route) has plans and land secured, but leased on short agreements. Most of the programme for extending electrification in Scotland, has plans, some early preparation (work done on the routes when other maintenance is taking place) and a portfolio of smaller packages that can fit together as they are completed, in the most sensible order
There remain some tweaks that I feel might be relevant - for example restoring 4 tracks (& 4 platforms) at Hyndland so that the Maryhill trains can run through Anniesland and terminate at Hyndland or just go round and round via Springburn & High Street. Adding 2 extra tracks from the old Partick West station to Yorkhill Junction (with extra platforms at Partick, and a revised turn back at Finnieston Station would make a really resilient network for the North Clyde routes, and enable almost all local trains to serve Hyndland for Gartnaval Hospital, with some Clyde Coast/Clyde Valley services also moved from Glasgow Central High Level, plus local trains moved from Queen Street High Level downstairs and a very high frequency of trains across Glasgow from Partick to Bridgeton/High Street through the day, relieving pressure on bus routes. We might see Edinburgh (& Stirling) to SECC through trains for big events (reopening the 4 platforms at Central Low Level and restoring the 4 platforms at Queen Street Low Level)
Posted 2 years ago # -
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Transport minister refuses to say government still committed to extending HS2 to Manchester, and to Euston
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Posted 1 year ago # -
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At the time, the entire scheme was costed at £25.5bn. Now, if it were all to be built, the exchequer would be unlikely to see change from £100bn. One estimate suggests it could rise to £150bn. Think of what you could do with this money. It’s 10 times the cost of refitting all England’s schools. You could use it to build 300 hospitals or all the social homes required in England for the next 10 years, more or less bringing homelessness to an end. Or you could address catastrophic transport failures throughout the UK.
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https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/sep/28/hs2-fiasco-clientelism-profit-big-projects
Posted 1 year ago # -
Are they not comparing apples with pears? If they spent the money on refitting all the schools what is the change of the final cost being anywhere near the initial estimate?
Posted 1 year ago # -
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HS2: Sunak repeatedly ducked questions on whether the troubled rail project would run all the way to Manchester, as planned. He insisted no decision had been made and said the government was focused on delivering the first phase. As he said frequently, "spades are in the ground"
Potholes: While pressed on transport, he regularly raised the importance of fixing potholes and local transport - saying that most people relied on cars, not trains
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Posted 1 year ago # -
> Are they not comparing apples with pears? If they spent the money on refitting all the schools what is the change of the final cost being anywhere near the initial estimate?
This is the trouble really, isn't it? It's becoming increasingly apparent that the problem isn't HS2, it's that the UK as currently constituted is simply unable to deliver infrastructure at anything like a reasonable cost. If they committed to replacing every single school in the country at £150bn it would end up costing £300bn. And we'd end up with basically the same assets as before rather than a massive boost to the transport system.
It's a good thing we're not facing an existential crisis which will require complete overhauls of our existing infrastructure in many sectors, isn't it?
Apparently the latest cloud on the horizon is new electricity distribution networks. As we double our reliance on electricity which will increasingly come from offshore or remote places, massive amounts of new pylons are going to have to go up all over the country. Either we get them built, or we dither due to local opposition, procurement delays and other faff and end up paying energy companies billions of pounds to generate no energy because we can't actually take it off them. Hard to see, in this climate, how we'll avoid option B.
Posted 1 year ago # -
If we actually want to deal with the existential crisis, we need to stop burning fossils immediately and make do with what we have.
Sure, we can incrementally improve the electricity and transport systems over time. But building more and more stuff, consuming more and more stuff and waiting till all that stuff is built before ending fossil fuels will end in disaster.
Yes, there will be disruption. But the alternative is the collapse of Earth's life support systems, which will be a million times worse.
Posted 1 year ago # -
Sunak loves to conflate capital vs current spending
Posted 1 year ago # -
£100bn spread over the 2010-2033 lifespan of the project is £4bn a year. I suppose the risk of long term thinking is that you can always attach a big number to it.
Posted 1 year ago # -
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Theresa May joins Johnson and Cameron in warning against HS2 cuts
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Posted 1 year ago # -
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The future of several prestige transport projects, including a planned £9bn road tunnel under the Thames, are in increasing doubt this weekend after prime minister Rishi Sunak failed to commit to building the northern section of the HS2 high-speed rail line to Manchester.
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Posted 1 year ago # -
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I am told the PM has now taken the decision to shelve the Manchester leg of HS2. Confirmation, and detail of the re-allocation of funds to other transport projects in the north, will presumably come very soon.
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Posted 1 year ago # -
Could he not give the money to "the north" for them to decide how to spend it, perhaps as long as they pinkie promise not to put a 20mph speed limit on any railway line they do build?
Posted 1 year ago # -
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Rishi Sunak is set to confirm he is scrapping the northern leg of HS2 to Manchester at the Conservative conference in the city despite a furious response and Tory fears it will fatally undermine the party’s commitment to levelling up.
Downing Street did not deny reports that the prime minister was planning to axe the multibillion-pound project and reallocate some of the funding to transport projects across the north.
He is also expected to announce that the high speed line will end on the outskirts of London, with trains stopping at Old Oak Common rather than six miles away in Euston.
Sunak is expected to hold an emergency cabinet meeting on Tuesday in Manchester to formally sign off the plans.
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https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/oct/02/hs2-rishi-sunak-scrapping-manchester-leg
Posted 1 year ago #
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