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"East Coast rail franchise bidding process begins"

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  1. Darkerside
    Member

    OK, if you keep a thought entirely within your head it won't affect your employment. But the example given was of someone broadcasting said opinion to the world.

    Posted 9 years ago #
  2. Morningsider
    Member

    DaveC - it's unlikely that Virgin or Stagecoach would ever criticise each other. Why?

    Stagecoach own 49% of the Virgin Rail Group.

    Posted 9 years ago #
  3. Arellcat
    Moderator

    I'm sorry I ever mentioned it.

    Posted 9 years ago #
  4. I were right about that saddle
    Member

    @Darkerside

    I was teasing. I still think Mr Souter has an inalienable right to try to persuade us that some people's private, consensual activities should affect the value we place on them.

    I find the proposition absurd, outrageous and demeaning but I daresay that some of my opinions might well have the same effect on him.

    Posted 9 years ago #
  5. PS
    Member

    The percentage split is ownership of the east coast operating company, so Virgin and Stagecoach can't really blame each other for non-delivery.

    Based on the figures I've seen in the press (which TBH can often be a misinterpretation of the numbers released by government), if they deliver the growth in premium they've bid then they will have earned their profit. To produce the passenger growth required to meet that they can't really afford to run a crappy service. And if they fail and have to hand it back, then DOR will run it again, so everyone wins.

    Posted 9 years ago #
  6. Morningsider
    Member

    PS - having had a bit more time to check. It turns out that Stagecoach owns 90% of the share capital of Inter City Railways (the franchise winner) and Virgin Group holds 10%.

    The Virgin Rail Group share split I mentioned previously only apples to the WCML franchise.

    Interesting how the Stagecoach press release states that premium payments to the UK Government will be £2.3bn (at 2014/15 prices), but the UK Government press release states £3.3bn (I assume a cash value figure). Still, what's a billion pounds between friends.

    Details: http://www.stagecoach.com/media/news-releases/2014/2014-11-27.aspx

    Posted 9 years ago #
  7. chdot
    Admin

    Any chance of any part of profits being 'assumed to be made north of the border' and sent to SG.

    (I think that was a rhetorical question.)

    Posted 9 years ago #
  8. Instography
    Member

    The East Coast profit last year was £235m. If the sale really involves paying £2.3bn to the government plus substantial investment for a franchise with a maximum of nine years then either someone's not done their sums or something's fishy.

    Posted 9 years ago #
  9. PS
    Member

    £3.3bn may be stated in nominal terms (including forecast inflation), used in the govt press release to emphasise the level of premium, whilst £2.3bn is in 2014/15 prices (not including inflation) so as not to scare the horses/shareholders.

    The cross border franchises are let by DfT so the premium goes back to it. It's a sticking point as it means SG isn't really incentivised (in a straight monetary sense as opposed to a for the good of its citizens sense) to invest in the infrastructure that is mainly used by cross border services.

    There will be a fair amount of growth forecast given new rolling stock, increased number of services and reduced journey times. Remains to be seen whether they can achieve it, but that's their risk. That's how govt profits from this - competition in the letting process means that virgin/stagecoach will have known they'd have to bid a good premium. Now they've got to deliver the growth in order to make their profits.

    Posted 9 years ago #
  10. steveo
    Member

    Or not bother and walk away if it's not going well.

    Posted 9 years ago #
  11. kaputnik
    Moderator

    So Stagecoach owns 90% but wont put its name on the trains? They must really accept how much like mud their name is to allow the minority partner to brand the service. They're also rather naive if they think Virgin is also good name in trains to branch something with.

    Posted 9 years ago #
  12. PS
    Member

    Or not bother and walk away if it's not going well.

    Which is likely to cost them a fair whack in performance bonds, sunk loans, unrecovered investment (such as it is).

    Posted 9 years ago #
  13. steveo
    Member

    Which is likely to cost them a fair whack
    I've not read much on it, but do they now have to front up enough to make it uneconomical to either walk away or just give up and not provide any investment?

    So Stagecoach owns 90% but wont put its name on the trains?

    I think Stagecoach was the majority partner in the west coast franchise too but branding it Virgin means you can piggy back on all the other terrible brands constantly broadcasting Virgin and people seem to forget that they are terrible brands and still sign on.

    Posted 9 years ago #
  14. chdot
    Admin

  15. kaputnik
    Moderator

    We saw an East Coast train go by the window yesterday with a very large and very naff red "Virgin" sticker on the power car. Mixed in with the silver and magenta and teal of the East Coast livery it was a veritably fugly assualt on the retinas.

    Posted 9 years ago #
  16. chdot
    Admin

    "

    “There are two major transport operators behind the franchise. Clearly on the west coast route they have a lot of experience of what it takes to make a business like this a success – the plans have been stress-tested financially and we’re very confident we can succeed.”

    "

    http://www.edinburghnews.scotsman.com/news/transport/east-coast-rail-chief-vows-cheaper-fares-1-3707074

    Posted 9 years ago #
  17. kaputnik
    Moderator

    Given the last 2 private operators walked away from the ECML, I suppose we'll have to wait and see what the bearded one can make of it. He did stick like glue to the WCML and kick up quite a high profile stink when there was the threat of it going to the "other" bus company, so perhaps they'll be equally keen to hang on to their current London-Scotland inter-city rail monopoly.

    Posted 9 years ago #
  18. crowriver
    Member

    Only another 4 years left of transporting tandems by train then. Once the new rolling stock is in place (2019?) then the bike carriage will be seven shades of crap...

    I'd best be planning tandeming in Englandshire for the next few years only... :-(

    Posted 9 years ago #
  19. steveo
    Member

    I expect that would have happened who ever one the franchise.

    Are they still building trains in the 125 mould? Dedicated power units (not underfloor) and no passengers in the power units? The largely empty space of the guards vans must seem like a serious waste and I bet its completely underutilised.

    Posted 9 years ago #
  20. kaputnik
    Moderator

    Are they still building trains in the 125 mould?

    If by "they" you mean countries other than the UK, then yes. Otherwise, no, the things they build now are all multiple units, with engines / motors under the carriage floors.

    The 125 / class 43 was built with stowage spaces at the end of each power car with a large sliding door. For whatever reason, these aren't used on EMCL's trains and are locked out of use, with the bikes crammed at the back of the guards office in the standard class quiet coach, inaccessible during the journey and hanging from their front wheel.

    The 225 / class 91 is a single locomotive, with an empty driving trailer (DVT) at the other end, which has the cavernous space for bikes and luggage. There were rules about DVTs not being allowed to carry passengers (the vehicles are light due to no heavy mechanical parts, and are pushed from behind by a very powerful locomotive, and have a tendency to ride up-and-over when hitting an obstruction on the line (see also fatal Polmont rail crash, using an older Mark of push-pull train, where the driving trailer hit a cow on the line and jack-knifed, leading to the train derailing and concertina-ing, as the heavy locomotive continued to push from behind), hence this space not being utilised for this purpose.

    The new Hitachi trains have a combination of powered and unpowered cars, with no locomotive as such. The leading and trailing driving cars are unpowered. The "bi mode" version, with diesel power for running north of Edinburgh has diesel generators under the car floor. As such, much like the Virgin Voyager, the passenger compartments will be noisy and plagued by vibration, not much better than a high-speed bus.

    Posted 9 years ago #
  21. HankChief
    Member

    From the inside of a moving Northbound EC train there isn't much different. In a spot the difference competition from my last trip I have come up with the following:

    The train has a small bit of red branding on it
    The Wifi has changed addresses
    Have not been offered biscuits (yet - although nearly at York)
    Dinner had 3 venison sausages vs only 2 pork ones in last times' toad in the hole
    Been given an after dinner virgin branded chocolate.

    So in summary, I'd say it was a positive change...

    Posted 9 years ago #
  22. gembo
    Member

    Looking at the trains leaving waverley from office window they are red. Wonder how long it takes to paint them? Branded Virgin but is it true that stagecoach by far the major shareholder?

    Posted 9 years ago #
  23. kaputnik
    Moderator

    The trains aren't painted, it's vinyl wraps, so very easy and quick to do, they'll all have been ordered and prepared months ago.

    Stagecoach is the majority shareholder yes. Marketing men seem to still think that the Virgin brand is still worth something. East Midlands and Southwest Trains are painted in Stagecoach colours, so they aren't totally averse to using their own brand.

    Posted 9 years ago #
  24. Morningsider
    Member

    gembo - yes, Stagecoach own 90% of Virgin Trains East Coast.

    stevo - the new trains were specified and ordered by the UK Department for Transport. They would have entered service regardless of who won the franchise, or if it had stayed in public ownership. The infrastructure upgrades would also have happened, as that is the responsibility of Network Rail.

    Anyone with time on their hands and an interest in rail privatisation could do worse than have a look at the TUC sponsored report "The Great Train Robbery: Rail Privatisation and After":

    https://www.tuc.org.uk/sites/default/files/tucfiles/The_Great_Train_Robbery_7June2013.pdf

    Clearly, this approaches the issue from a pro-public sector rail viewpoint - which I think most rational people would share after reading it.

    Posted 9 years ago #
  25. crowriver
    Member

    So, in summary, the new operator's investment is as follows:

    - spruce up the ageing 125/225 units a bit.
    - bring back working kitchens so premium passengers can enjoy a hot breakfast.
    - two extra trains on a Sunday.

    Then, once infrastructure and rolling stock upgrades are delivered by the public sector (2019/20?):

    - trains every half an hour.

    Er...that's it.

    So 2.3bn looks like a reasonable bid. If they can crank up the profit margins a bit over the next few years they'll be back in the black in what....six or seven years?

    Posted 9 years ago #
  26. Arellcat
    Moderator

    @crowriver, and 23 formations of Class 800 ("IEP") trains to work the ECML from 2018.

    Look at those trains, all shiny and streamlined, and wonder why on earth in 2015 we still don't have an ECML operating at 180mph.

    Posted 9 years ago #
  27. kaputnik
    Moderator

    http://www.edinburghnews.scotsman.com/news/transport/low-cost-edinburgh-to-london-rail-service-plan-1-3716869

    A cut-price express train to London is set to launch a price war with rival rail firms and budget airlines if it is approved by regulators.

    First Group has promised to offer “significantly lower” fares on the route if its plans go ahead, with journey times of four hours between Edinburgh and London.

    Don't hold your breath, previous attempts to run open-access services on the ECML have been blocked as they might affect the incumbent operator's profits or interfere with diagramming of services. Then they'd have to find enough rolling stock to perform a reliable high-speed service.

    Posted 9 years ago #
  28. Tulyar
    Member

    I've done Edinburgh-Leeds faster via Carlisle & the S&C (which BTW now has some really smooth jointed as well as CWR - and many reckon the signalling should be cleared for 90mph at least, rather then current 75mph).

    Arriva or VT did a test run EDB-KGX with a 390 and worked out that it could do current route in around 3h40m, as the bendy bits can be done faster (compare the sliding discomfort on current non tilt trains going through Grantshouse/Penmanshiel/Cockburnspath with the WCML tilters).

    Further South we've had c.160mph out of a very short HST testing the bogies (now built in Europe) for high speed operation. These were fitted to an HST Mk 3 carriage, so an HST rake, with auto doors (as devised by Chiltern and now planned for Abellio HST's) and then Class 88 or similar if Class 43's cannot cut the mustard, might get new high speed bogies and dun at the already planned and tested 140mph.

    Eliminate the bottlenecks at York, Newcastle, and avoidable slowing down at Morpeth, 3 hours to London for 395 miles (including going North to go via Dunbar) doesn't look impossible.

    Worth also bearing in mind that having rebuilt 33 miles of track, 7 new stations, 1 new viaduct, 1 new tunnel, and several totally rebuilt existing structures, in just over 2 years, the prospect of reconnecting rails between Melrose and Longtown, especially if driven by a core freight customer, and cross funded as a lower cost option than road repairs & enhancements for HGV.... We've got the team so where do they go next?

    Posted 9 years ago #
  29. Morningsider
    Member

    Seems the UK Government has caved-in to the demands of Virgin-Stagecoach and will be terminating the East Coast franchise in 2020. This means the big-bucks promised by Virgin-Stagecoach to the UK Government at the start of the franchise no longer need to be paid. In addition, it looks like the amount due to be paid over the remainder of the shortened franchise will also be reduced.

    This is all hidden in the detail of a "Strategic Vision for Rail" published today and nicely spun as the creation of a new East Coast Partnership.

    Details: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/663124/rail-vision-web.pdf

    Posted 6 years ago #
  30. chdot
    Admin

    My bold -

    Instead, Vtec is likely to pay a fraction of that sum, with the bulk of payments due in the final years of the franchise.

    The firm signalled that it also expects its payments for the next three years to be cut. In the first full year of operation, it paid £204m. Shares in Stagecoach jumped 12% on the news.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/nov/29/east-coast-rail-franchise-terminated-three-years-early-virgin-trains

    Posted 6 years ago #

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